"Two barrels of oil" in the first half of the year performance exposed, international oil prices rushed up and fell, the rally ended?

On the evening of August 25, PetroChina and CNOOC both disclosed their semi-annual report data
.
Thanks to the sharp rise in international oil prices, the performance of both companies hit the best level in the same period in
history.
If calculated according to the 181 days in the first half of the year, PetroChina earned 455 million yuan per day, and CNOOC earned 397 million yuan
per day.

In the first half of 2022, PetroChina achieved operating income of 1.
61 trillion yuan, an increase of 34.
9% over the same period last year; Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 82.
391 billion yuan, an increase of 55.
3% over the same period last year; The company's financial position is healthy and good, and free cash flow increased by 89.
21 billion yuan
year-on-year.
It is worth mentioning that PetroChina's performance in the first half of the year hit the best level in the same period of
the calendar year.

At the same time, in order to return shareholders, the Board of Directors decided to pay a 2022 interim dividend of RMB0.
20258 per share (including applicable taxes) based on the total share capital of the Company as of June 30, 2022 of RMB183.
02 billion, with a total dividend of RMB37.
076 billion
.

On the evening of August 25, CNOOC released its 2022 interim results, with a record high
in net profit.
During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 202.
355 billion yuan, an increase of 84% year-on-year; Net profit attributable to the mother was 71.
887 billion yuan, an increase of 116%
year-on-year.
The Board of Directors of the Company has decided to pay an interim dividend of HK$0.
70 (including tax) per share for 2022, a record high
for the same period of time.
Based on the total share capital of the company, a dividend of HK$33,346 million is required, equivalent to approximately RMB29.
1 billion
.

International oil prices soared and fell

Recently, crude oil prices have recovered from the lows, and in a week or so, Brent crude oil prices have risen from about $91/barrel to about $102/barrel, an increase of more than $10/barrel
.
On Thursday, the inner plate crude oil variety led the commodity market, with crude oil rising nearly 4%, low-sulfur fuel oil up more than 3%, asphalt up nearly 3%, and LPG up more than 2%.

After a continuous rebound, international oil prices rushed higher and fell back on Thursday, showing a dive
.
As of the close of the day, WTI crude oil futures fell $2.
37/barrel to close at $92.
52/b, or 2.
50%; The October contract for Brent crude futures fell $1.
88/bbl to close at $99.
34/bbl, or 1.
86%.

Yang An, head of energy and chemical research at Haitong Futures, said that international oil prices rebounded from Monday because the Saudi energy minister believes that oil futures and fundamentals are increasingly disjointed, which may force OPEC+ to take action and consider using the option
of production cuts.

Subsequently, oil prices played a game around the OPEC production cut discussion and the progress of the Iranian nuclear deal for most of the week, but overall the Saudi remarks played a very critical role, boosting market optimism, after the US response on Wednesday rejected Iran's additional conditions, the Iranian nuclear agreement still needs to continue negotiations to ease supply-side pressures, coupled with the European gas rush and US President Biden ordered to launch air strikes on Iran-related targets in Syria, oil prices rebounded from Monday's
。

Zheng Mengqi, a researcher at Haise Futures, also said that the recent rise in crude oil prices is driven by multiple factors: First, with the decline in crude oil prices in the early stage, Saudi Arabia and some OPEC officials said that if necessary, production cuts can be achieved, and OPEC idle capacity is low, mainly concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, such as Angola, Nigeria and other countries, with limited production capacity and unable to meet the target output
stipulated in the existing agreement.
If Saudi Arabia takes the initiative to reduce production, the contradiction between crude oil supply and demand will expand
.
Second, negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal have recently been blocked again, with the United States rejecting all the strings attached to Iran's proposal and urging Iran to lift any restrictions
on international verification.
In the early stage, due to the good progress of negotiations, the bearish sentiment of the sharp decline in oil prices eased
.
Third, due to the extended shutdown of plants in the United States and Norway, the supply of natural gas in Europe is tight, exacerbating the price increase
.

Gu Shuangfei, deputy manager of the advisory services department of South China Futures, said that the short-term market expects that the Iranian nuclear agreement will be difficult to reach, while worrying about the production cut of OPEC in the September monthly meeting, coupled with the positive EIA inventory, driving a strong rebound in oil prices, WTI and Brent crude oil rose
for 3 consecutive days.

"At present, the crude oil market is intertwined with bulls and bears, the bullish factors include the energy crisis and OPEC+ production cuts, and the negative factors include the recession expectations brought about by the Fed's sharp interest rate hike and the decline in refinery processing demand during the traditional autumn maintenance period, so crude oil prices are still dominated by oscillations
.
" Zheng Mengqi said that the trend of crude oil in the inner disk is stronger than that in the outer disk, due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the EU reduces imports of Russian crude oil, increases the import of crude oil in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia raises the OSP sold to Asia, domestic imports of crude oil in the Middle East decrease, Russian crude oil imports increase, but Russian crude oil can not be used as a delivery variety, and the number of crude oil warehouse receipts continues to decline to a low level
.
Superimposed freight rates are high, the trend of crude oil in the inner and outer disks is differentiated, and the possibility of repair in the short term is relatively low
.

Gu Shuangfei said that the current market trading logic is the trade-off
between low investment, low production capacity, low inventories in the global oil market and the risk premium brought about by Russia's reduced energy supply and the slowdown in global economic growth.
In the short term, the progress of the Iranian nuclear negotiations and whether OPEC will cut production are the biggest factors
affecting oil price fluctuations.
"From the current situation, the long and short drive is very large, international crude oil in the short term is still in a wide range of fluctuations, for SC crude oil, the price is still strong driven, but the premium has been too high, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being, if the Middle East in September to reduce the price of Asian OSP, and domestic imports increased, you can pay attention to the trading opportunities
of more Brent crude oil and short SC crude oil.
"

Yang An believes that the recent bullish factors in the crude oil market have overshadowed the bearish shock, which is the key reason why
this round of rebound market can be carried out smoothly.
Whether the rally can be sustained depends on the follow-up progress of the JCPOA and the impact of macro-level factors, including OPEC+'s production plan
at the September meeting.
At present, this week's oil price rebound is obvious, but the crude oil market monthly difference results have not been significantly stronger, or at a low level, indicating that the overall supply and demand of the crude oil market is not very tight, and the second half of the year is generally expected to have accumulation pressure, before the demand side has not effectively improved, it is still not too optimistic
about the rebound space 。 Excluding some uncertainties, according to the current crude oil market supply and demand deduction and global economic situation, oil prices in the second half of the year still have a large probability of the center of gravity will move down, so the rebound market in the case of a cumulative increase of about $10 / barrel, it is not recommended to continue to rush to chase, you can pay attention to the downward opportunity
of the price after the rebound.

Low sulfur fuel oil out of the four consecutive yang

Since this week, low-sulfur fuel oil has performed strongly, out of four consecutive Yangs
.

"In addition to the driving factors of the rise in crude oil prices, the recent sharp rise in diesel cracking abroad has also led to an increase in the price of
low-sulfur fuel oil.
" Gu Shuangfei said that in addition, low-sulfur fuel oil stocks are still low, while the domestic low-sulfur production supply has not experienced the growth expected by the market, which has a positive impact on
low-sulfur fuel oil.

Zheng Mengqi said that the explosion of the LNG facility in the US free port is currently under maintenance, and the full restart is postponed to November
.
With gas shipments from Russia still restricted, European countries can only rely on gas supplies from the United States and Norway, while the decline in gas flows in the United States and Norway has led to a sharp rise in gas prices in the near future
.
Under the support of the energy crisis and the power shortage, diesel cracking performance is strong, the superimposed supply is tight, and the price trend of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong
.

Li Yunxu, senior analyst of SDIC Anxin Futures Research Institute, analyzed that the low-sulfur fuel oil blending components have low-sulfur residue oil and diesel components, etc.
, and the deep processing of low-sulfur residual oil can produce gasoline and diesel, so the relationship between low-sulfur fuel oil and diesel is relatively close, and its cracking price difference trend is highly consistent
with diesel.
Since low-sulfur fuel oil is bonded delivery and has a strong linkage with overseas markets, the recent rise is mainly driven
by the rise in overseas diesel cracking spreads.
Taking the Singapore market as an example, the 10ppm diesel cracking spread rose from US$40/b in early August to US$57/bbl, and the low-sulfur fuel oil cracking spread rose from US$10/barrel to US$15/barrel
in the same period.
The shortage of diesel intermediate discharges overseas is mainly due to the decline in Russian diesel exports and the support
of diesel demand from high natural gas prices in Europe.

Li Yunxu said that from the perspective of the international market, due to the relatively stable demand for marine use, low-sulfur fuel oil mainly benefits from the diversion effect of diesel fuel on its supply side, and the fundamentals are relatively optimistic
.
Since the beginning of this year, the fundamental factor leading the trend of low-sulfur fuel oil cracking spreads is the profit of the main products of overseas refineries, and the fundamental factor that dominates the price trend of low-sulfur fuel oil is crude oil
.

From the perspective of the domestic market, it is still in the stage
of increasing production and then diverting the market share of Singapore ship refueling.
Production of low-sulfur fuel oil countries reached a new high of 1.
51 million tons in July, of which Sinopec produced a record high
of 777,000 tons.
Under the abundant domestic export quotas, low sulfur and high output are expected to be maintained, and to a certain extent, the price difference between internal and external disks is suppressed
.

Gu Shuangfei said that although the shipping price index has declined recently, the problem of the port of Cyprus has been solved, and the global capacity of ships in transit has risen, which is good for ship demand, but this positive drive for prices is limited, and the core of promoting the strengthening of low sulfur is the supply side
.
Low sulfur has a strong correlation with gasoline and diesel in the trend, although the foreign gasoline cracking spread has fallen, but the diesel cracking spread has soared, which will promote the reduction of low sulfur supply, and then promote the strengthening
of low sulfur.
At present, low-sulfur fuel oil is a strong drive, high valuation state, before the external diesel cracking has not declined, still optimistic about the trend of low-sulfur fuel oil in the
future.

Li Yunxu said that the crude oil market ushered in a rebound cycle after the probability of reaching an agreement in the current round of talks of the Iranian nuclear power has been greatly reduced, and low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to follow the rebound
of crude oil.
In terms of cracking spreads, for a single contract, in the context of Russia's reduced exports of refined oil, the logic of diesel strength has not been falsified, and if the EU's sanctions against Russia are finally strictly enforced, the low-sulfur fuel oil cracking spread may continue to rise
.
Overall, low-sulfur fuel oil is greatly affected by geopolitical uncertainty, but the probability of rise is greater than the probability of
falling.

The asphalt trend is relatively weak

Among the crude oil varieties, the recent trend of bitumen is relatively weak
.

Sui Xiaoying, chief petrochemical researcher of Founder Medium-term Futures, said that on the one hand, the market capital is tight and the cost of paving is high, the start of highway projects has been affected to a certain extent, and the overall performance of asphalt just needs is average
.
On the other hand, refinery bitumen discharge production increased significantly in September, expected to reach 2.
87 million tons, an expected increase of 6.
3% month-on-month and 13.
3% year-on-year, of which local refining and discharge production is expected to be 1.
961 million tons, an increase of 301,000 tons or 18.
13% month-on-month, and an increase of 706,800 tons or 56.
35%
year-on-year.
In the context of supply improvement, if the demand increase is limited, the asphalt supply and demand structure may be expected to be poor, and the short-term disk trend will be suppressed
.

From a fundamental point of view, Sui Xiaoying analysis said that the main business start is still lower than the level of the beginning of the year, the local refining work has also declined recently, limiting the supply of petrochemical products, although the asphalt start and output have increased as a whole, but the year-on-year is still low, but from the latest scheduling data, the refinery asphalt production in September increased significantly, and the supply side further increased
month-on-month.
The overall performance of asphalt road demand is average, and it will enter the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" consumption season, but the industry generally expects that asphalt consumption will increase month-on-month, but it is expected to be lower than the same period
of previous years.

"Crude oil prices are rising, and the cost of bitumen is supported, but due to the increase in supply, the trend is relatively weak, the basis continues to repair, and the absolute price of bitumen is greatly
affected by crude oil.
" Zheng Mengqi said
.

"According to the current scheduling plan and the estimated demand increase in September (about 350,000 tons), the asphalt will end the destocking cycle
of several months in September.
" Gu Shuangfei said that it is necessary to pay attention to the following points: First, the short-term asphalt supply and demand structure is still good, from the latest weekly inventory and production and marketing data, the recovery rhythm of the demand side is still good, and the spot price is relatively strong under the background of the current continuous rise in crude oil prices, resulting in the 2212 contract in the previous period of more than 500 yuan / ton of basis level to continue to have limited
downward space 。 Second, in the current announcement of the local refining and scheduling plan, although it has given it a month-on-month increase of more than 300,000 tons, but whether the local refining can fulfill such a scheduling plan needs time verification, and it is not uncommon for the historical refining output to be less than 100,000 tons of the scheduling plan due to taxation, environmental protection and other issues, and with the gradual improvement of the country's future weather, it is still optimistic about the incremental demand rhythm
of September to October.

Looking forward to the future market, Sui Xiaoying said that the unilateral trend of asphalt is basically to follow the crude oil, short-term crude oil performance is strong, the cost of bitumen formation support, but in the medium and long term, under the pressure of demand, the center of gravity of crude oil operation is expected to decline again, and the cost of asphalt formation is suppressed, promoting the asphalt operation center downward
.
At present, it is expected that the asphalt scheduling will increase in the later period, and if the peak season demand is realized, the asphalt profit is expected to continue to be repaired, otherwise the asphalt profit will continue to be suppressed
.

Gu Shuangfei believes that in the context of the stabilization of crude oil prices and the difficulty of loosening spot prices in the peak season, the asphalt futures 2212 contract has no basis for a sharp decline, and there is a certain margin of safety near 3900 yuan / ton, but the upper space is also relatively limited
.