U.S. crude surged 2.5% on the day, and the market did not expect OPEC+ members to increase production further

During the New York session on Thursday (November 4), the price of U.
S.
crude oil maintained a strong upward momentum during the day, with U.
S.
crude oil rising 2.
55% and Brent crude oil rising 2.
61%.

The market focus is currently on the ongoing OPEC and Non-OPEC Ministerial Oversight Committee (JMMC).

Oil prices have now hit their highest level since 2014, and crude importers are feeling the pain
.
But despite diplomatic pressure, analysts believe that OPEC and its allies are unlikely to decide to turn on the faucet to increase production at the meeting
.
Analysts say this could mean energy prices will remain high until the end of the year and possibly into 2022
.

Eduard Bell, senior director of market economy at Dubai Bank Emirates NBD, wrote in the report: "For now, we still expect OPEC+ members to remain tight in the oil market and use price increases to improve fiscal accounts
.

U.
S.
President Joe Biden recently bluntly accused OPEC+ of being unwilling to increase oil production
for the sharp rise in energy prices in the United States and around the world.

"The idea that Russia and Saudi Arabia, along with other major oil producers, are not going to produce more oil so that people can commute on gasoline is not correct
," Biden said at a G20 meeting in Rome on Sunday.
”

Some analysts pointed out that if OPEC tries to put more oil on the market, this will lead to price pressure
.
Japan and India have also joined the United States in trying to pressure OPEC to raise production limits and help lower energy prices
.

So far, however, the group's policy of gradually increasing oil production by 400,000 barrels per day per month starting in August has not changed for OPEC members and their allies
.
Angola's oil minister, Diamantino Pedro Azevedo, said on Sunday that the plan was working well and there was no need to deviate from it
.

Kuwait's oil minister also said on Monday that the group should stick to its current plan because the oil market is "well balanced," with similar statements
from OPEC members Iraq, Nigeria and Algeria.

For crude oil consumers, it must be very painful
.
Brent crude reached a three-year high of more than $86 a barrel at the end of October and has soared more than
60 percent this year alone.
West Texas Intermediate crude is up more than 70 percent this year and hitting a seven-year high, recently hitting $85 a barrel but trading at $80.
44 a barrel in London at the same time Thursday
.
U.
S.
gasoline is also at a seven-year high
.

Herman Wang, senior oil writer at S&P Platts at Standard &P Platts, said the key word for OPEC+ ministers this month was caution
.
While the pressure from the US, India and Japan to release more crude oil has been exerted, we have heard many OPEC oil ministers cite pandemic rates and the rationality of a shift to a more conservative approach, as well as the possibility of a seasonal decline in oil demand expectations, so these ministers stuck to their existing plans
.

Another analysis pointed out that the price surge is likely to be temporary, but OPEC+ may hear more complaints
from its main customers before the market cools.

Frustrated oil importers also can't force OPEC to step in — the U.
S.
can use crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to drive down prices
, the analysis wrote.
But it's often a dramatic move in response to emergencies such as natural disasters or wars, and U.
S.
calls for OPEC countries to increase oil production also contradict
its stated goal of leading global climate change policy.

The analysis notes that because of all this, the market widely believes that oil prices will remain high until the end of 2021 and may fall
early next year.