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On Tuesday, the Shanghai aluminum shock operation closed the black line, intraday trading was general, and the long and short exit was positive
.
Stimulated by the recent Fed's expectation of continued interest rate hikes, dragging down U.
S.
stocks and other factors, the volatility of Shanghai aluminum is dominant, and nonferrous volatility has increased
.
Shanghai aluminum fundamentals are still supported by reducing factors such as cost and power energy, and the market is in a volatile operation pattern
.
In terms of the market, the overall transaction volume of the morning electrolytic aluminum spot market is still weak, and the downstream purchases are on-demand, but due to poor orders, the purchase volume is small
.
There is also a lack of
enthusiasm for trading among traders.
The mainstream trading price in Shanghai is around 18,940 yuan / ton, which is about 50 lower than the futures discount
.
The mainstream transaction price in Guangdong is around 18770 yuan / ton
.
In the short term, it is difficult for Sichuan to reduce production capacity to resume operation, but due to weak consumption, there is no sign of
improvement.
Although explicit inventories are relatively low, they are already showing an upward trend
.
On the supply side, the expected decline in alumina production is expected to increase, price fluctuations are limited, and electricity prices and smelting auxiliary product prices do not fluctuate much, electrolytic aluminum cost support is still effective, at present, even if the power supply is restored, the recovery of power cuts caused by tank shutdown and production capacity is still taking some time, it is expected that the output of electrolytic aluminum in September will be about 3.
4 million tons, while the net import of electrolytic aluminum is still low
.
In terms of consumption, the real estate sector has obviously dragged down the downstream consumption of aluminum, and the increase in demand in the traditional consumption season is relatively limited
.
Last week, domestic electrolytic aluminum social stocks fell by 1,000 tons, and bonded zone stocks fell by 1,000 tons
.
To sum up, under the influence of the bearish atmosphere, the trend of Shanghai aluminum is weak, Sichuan power is eased, and refiners have begun to gradually resume work and production, but in the case of weak demand and difficult to change, aluminum prices continue to bottom.
