Weak fundamentals Shanghai aluminum maintained weak operation

On the macro front, US non-farm payrolls added 372,000 in June, far exceeding expectations of 268,000 and slightly below May's 390,000
.
At the same time, the unemployment rate recorded 3.
6% for four consecutive months, in line with market expectations
.
With the labor market still strong and unemployment at a relatively low level, expectations of a 75 basis point rate hike by the Fed this month have been reinforced
again.
The dollar index continues to rise, and commodities are generally under pressure to the downside
.

Fears of a possible recession in Europe have increased
since Nord Stream 1, the largest single pipeline to carry Russian gas to Germany, began annual maintenance on Monday.
And the IMF once again lowered its US economic growth forecast to 2.
3%, compared with the previous forecast of 2.
9%.

Due to the high cost of gasoline and food, the US CPI in June may continue to record high values, it is recommended to pay attention to the release
of actual data.

The European energy crisis is severe, there are restrictions on overseas aluminum supply, but the domestic supply side smelter production continues to increase, although the recent aluminum price has fallen one after another, but there is no news of production reduction, according to estimates, about 20% of the current enterprise complete cost loss, but the current new production capacity is still steadily increasing, for electrolytic aluminum, the probability of not losing cash cost production is minimal, not to mention the current new production part has not stopped, so the first step in supply loss reduction is to see the new production part suspended, Haven't seen
it yet.

At present, aluminum prices are in a situation of weak macro and fundamentals, which will be maintained until the end of this month, so the short-term is still dominated by short operation ideas, considering that the current aluminum price has fallen below the national average cost line, the decline may slow down
in the near future.
The situation may have improved in early August, first, the results of the July Fed meeting have landed, and the short-term benefits have been exhausted
.
Second, the consumption off-season has begun to come to an end, and the market or trading gold nine silver ten consumption is expected to
improve.
At that time, you can consider reducing short positions, and if consumption improves significantly, you can light positions and arrange long positions
.