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On Tuesday, the main monthly 2301 contract of Shanghai copper continued its weak trend, and the decline slowed down during the day, opening at 66030 yuan / ton, and closing at 66070 yuan / ton, down 210 yuan / ton, or 0.
32%.
Before this week's Fed meeting, market sentiment was cautious, entering the off-season, demand became weaker, and weak reality dragged down copper prices, but the current low inventory logic is still valid, and the decline in Shanghai copper narrowed and slightly green
.
In terms of spot, on December 13, the trading price of CCMN Yangtze River spot 1# copper was 66210-66250 yuan / ton, with an average price of 66230 yuan, down 110 yuan / ton; The premium was reported at 120-160 yuan / ton, and the average price was 140 yuan, down 40 yuan / ton
.
The spot market inquiry is not good, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is still general, the premium continues to fall and adjust, and the receiver still chooses to replenish the warehouse at a price on demand, and the transaction is not good
.
On the supply side, South America's Peru reappeared in the aftermath of strike disruptions caused supply disruption concerns, domestic refined copper production in November fell slightly month-on-month, and it was difficult to increase production significantly in December
.
In terms of inventory, the logic of low inventories still effectively supports prices
.
London copper stocks fell by 1,125 tonnes, or 1.
32%,
to 84,300 tonnes on Monday.
Shanghai copper inventory warehouse recorded 24,100 tonnes in a single day, an increase of 325 tonnes
over the previous day.
On the demand side, domestic terminal demand has increased or decreased differently, and it is difficult to have a bright performance
under the influence of seasonal off-season.
In November, automobile production and sales fell year-on-year and month-on-month, and the overall performance was lower than market expectations, and at the same time, the consumption of copper metal was weakened, coupled with the operating rate of downstream processing leading enterprises continued to decline month-on-month, and weak orders caused small and medium-sized enterprises to take an early holiday, and there was still weak pressure
in the future.
Looking ahead, the US inflation data and the release of the Fed's policy decision before the market remained cautious, domestic new loans and social financing data in November performed less than expected, and Shanghai copper was weak
.
Last Friday's weekly copper inventory increased by more than 13,000 tons, putting some pressure
on copper prices.
In addition, entering the off-season, demand gradually weakened, coupled with the Spring Festival holiday approaching, copper downstream consumption performance is not good, the operating rate of processing leading enterprises continues to decline, weak orders or small and medium-sized enterprises to take an early holiday, weak now to suppress copper prices
.
However, it is worth noting that the current low inventory logic is still valid, and the accumulation has not yet appeared, which still supports the price
.
On the whole, macro expectations are unstable, realistic fundamentals are expected to weaken, the probability of upward price space is small, and there is expected to be a risk
of pullback.
