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    Home > Chemicals Industry > Petrochemical News > Why does the OPEC+ official announcement increase production plan for crude oil not afraid to increase production?

    Why does the OPEC+ official announcement increase production plan for crude oil not afraid to increase production?

    • Last Update: 2021-09-23
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    Aziz also had a phone call with the Secretary of Energy of the United States, and the two sides agreed to strengthen cooperation in the energy field




    Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that although Russia remains cautious, it is optimistic about the prospects
    .
    He said that global crude oil reserves will return to normal within 2-3 months, and Russia will gradually increase oil production within three months, and will increase production by 114,000 barrels per day from May to July
    .


    Why is the market happy to see OPEC increase production? Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg analysts give explanations


    As for why oil prices are welcoming OPEC's production increase with a rising attitude, Jeff Currie, head of commodity research at Goldman Sachs, explained that the existing supply shortage may expand
    .
    More important is the demand situation.
    The demand data in the United States is very stable, while the European blockade is only a "temporary speed bump
    .
    "


    Goldman Sachs’ Damien Courvalin also explained that although OPEC chose to increase production, the increase in June and July was smaller than expected, and that Saudi Arabia’s decision to withdraw voluntary production cuts from May was also in line with expectations
    .
    In addition, the bank predicts that the rebound in oil demand this summer will be greater than that predicted by OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA), which will require OPEC to increase production by another 2 million barrels per day from July to October
    .


    Goldman Sachs expects that even with such a large production increase, excess inventory will return to normal by this fall.
    Therefore, Goldman Sachs reiterated its view that the recent sell-off is only a short-term fall in the process of rising oil prices
    .


    However, in view of OPEC's decision that the increase in production is still cautious and orderly, Goldman Sachs said that this will reduce the breadth of futures price distribution reflected in the level of implied volatility of oil distribution
    .


    Goldman Sachs also gave a new trading recommendation: sell put options on the oil futures on December 22 with an exercise price of $55/barrel, aiming to capture a higher put option skew
    .


    Bloomberg’s chief energy reporter Javier Blas commented that the market has three points of satisfaction with OPEC’s latest decision, but also three points of dissatisfaction
    .

      Satisfaction:


    Saudi Arabia expects that oil demand will improve this summer, although the European market is still worrying; it is determined that any increase in production will be restricted; Prince Aziz assured the market that if necessary, he will make timely adjustments in the monthly meeting Policy
    .

      Dissatisfaction:


    OPEC is trying to re-guess the demand in June, but under the epidemic, experience shows that this is almost impossible; the calendar spread is being sold, indicating that the discount is reduced, which means fewer investors chasing returns; from May to July Monthly oil-producing countries will all increase production, and compliance with reduced production is worrying, and there may be many countries that increase production in violation of regulations
    .


    But overall, Blass believes that there are more optimistic factors than pessimistic factors in this decision
    .
    He said that as oil prices stabilized trading above US$60/barrel, other commodities (such as corn and copper) also rose
    .
    While major central banks are currently facing potential upward inflation, the US government is investing trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus to boost the global economy
    .
    OPEC's decision will be a welcome decision for the monetary authorities, giving central banks more leeway in dealing with inflation
    .


    Another point that may reassure the market is that the agreement is only valid for four weeks, because OPEC's next ministerial meeting will be held on April 28, if necessary, they may adjust production levels again
    .

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