10 domestic 1 class of new drugs "on the market take off"! Zhengda sunny, Hengrui, Howson lit up, the three PD-1 total broke 10 billion?

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Table 1: Class 1 new drugs approved for marketing in 2018-2020 (excluding vaccines)

Source: Meinenet MED2.

Table 2: 10 Class 1 innovative drugs that went on the market from 2018 to 2020 and have rapid sales growth

Table 2: 10 Class 1 innovative drugs that went on the market from 2018 to 2020 and have rapid sales growth

Note: 2020 sales are based on H1 data of Chinese public medical institutions + annual forecast data of physical pharmacies in Chinese cities

Source: Minet database

Among the newly approved Class 1 new drugs with rapid sales growth from 2018 to 2020, the sales of most new drugs in the physical pharmacy terminals of Chinese cities in the first year of listing are higher than the sales of public medical institutions in China, which shows that they have just been approved.

Among the newly approved Class 1 new drugs with rapid sales growth from 2018 to 2020, the sales of most new drugs in the physical pharmacy terminals of Chinese cities in the first year of listing are higher than the sales of public medical institutions in China, which shows that they have just been approved.

The growth rate of Anlotinib has slowed down after the "outbreak", and the fourth indication has been approved The growth rate of Anlotinib has slowed down after the "outbreak", and the fourth indication has been approved

Among the innovative drugs that have been on the market in the past three years, the most dazzling sales is CP Tianqing's Anlotinib.

Among the innovative drugs that have been on the market in the past three years, the most dazzling sales is CP Tianqing's Anlotinib.

In the first half of 2020, under the influence of the epidemic, the growth momentum of Anlotinib slowed down slightly.

Prior to this, Anlotinib has been approved in China for the treatment of advanced non-small cell lung cancer, soft tissue sarcoma and small cell lung cancer.

It can be seen that Anlotinib has officially become CP Tianqing’s fist variety, and continues to inject fresh blood into the company's innovative research and development.

Four PD-1 "Fairy Races", a total of more than 10 billion yuan Four PD-1 "Fairy Races," a total of more than 10 billion yuan

After the "wave of approvals" for PD-1 drugs, the marketization of several domestically-made PD-1 drugs has become the focus of the industry.

After the "wave of approvals" for PD-1 drugs, the marketization of several domestically-made PD-1 drugs has become the focus of the industry.

According to BeiGene's 2020 Q3 financial report, tislelizumab Q3 achieved global sales of 49.

The action of tislelizumab on January 12, 2021 is also worthy of attention.

At the end of 2020, the PD-1 of the three Chinese local companies of Junshi Bio-Treprizumab, Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Carrelizumab, and BeiGene Tilelizumab will enter the 2020 National Medical Insurance Drugs.

The growth of oncology drugs is strong, and other innovative drugs may be difficult to enter the hospital market .

Except for Anlotinib and the four PD-1 models, only Hausen's Ametinib was the only company whose sales in the first year of the market quickly exceeded 100 million.
Ametinib is the world’s second third-generation EGFR-TKI innovative drug and the first domestically-made third-generation EGFR-TKI drug.
It was approved for marketing in China on March 31, 2020.
It is used to treat EGFR-mutant non-small cell lung cancer and is mainly sold.
The channel is in the retail pharmacy terminal, and the forecasted sales for 2020 will exceed 130 million yuan.

Hausen's other innovative drug, polyethylene glycol loxenatide, had sales of more than 70 million in the second year after its launch.
It is worth noting that in the first half of 2020, the sales of public medical institutions in China are only about 4.
5 million yuan, while the annual forecast sales of physical pharmacies in Chinese cities are close to 70 million.
It can be seen that even in industries such as Hausen Giants are also facing challenges in opening up the hospital market in the diabetes pipeline.

Hausen's other innovative drug, polyethylene glycol loxenatide, had sales of more than 70 million in the second year after its launch.
It is worth noting that in the first half of 2020, the sales of public medical institutions in China are only about 4.
5 million yuan, while the annual forecast sales of physical pharmacies in Chinese cities are close to 70 million.
It can be seen that even in industries such as Hausen Giants are also facing challenges in opening up the hospital market in the diabetes pipeline.

Fabojin's anti-anemia drug Roxastat capsule was approved for marketing on December 21, 2018.
In the first half of 2020, its sales in public medical institutions in China exceeded 120 million yuan.
Roxastat was approved by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare on November 29, 2020 for the treatment of chronic kidney disease-related anemia in non-dialysis dependent patients.

Fabojin's anti-anemia drug Roxastat capsule was approved for marketing on December 21, 2018.
In the first half of 2020, its sales in public medical institutions in China exceeded 120 million yuan.
Roxastat was approved by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare on November 29, 2020 for the treatment of chronic kidney disease-related anemia in non-dialysis dependent patients.

Sales of Gallite Pharmaceutical's oral hepatitis C drug danorevir are in trouble.
According to data from Mi Nei.
com, its annual sales in 2019 were about 110 million yuan, of which about 90% were sold at the terminals of public medical institutions in China.
In the first half of 2020, the sales of Danorevir in China's public medical institutions were only about 25 million yuan, which was a serious decline.
It is said that the main reason for the decline in sales is that the full oral treatment plan in 2020 has become the standard for hepatitis C treatment.
Many hepatitis C patients no longer choose the treatment plan of danorevir plus interferon injection, and the national medical insurance negotiation in November 2019 In China, Danorevir is regrettably out of the game and lost the support of medical insurance.
The future marketization prospects are worrying.

Sales of Gallite Pharmaceutical's oral hepatitis C drug danorevir are in trouble.
According to data from Mi Nei.
com, its annual sales in 2019 were about 110 million yuan, of which about 90% were sold at the terminals of public medical institutions in China.
In the first half of 2020, the sales of Danorevir in China's public medical institutions were only about 25 million yuan, which was a serious decline.
It is said that the main reason for the decline in sales is that the full oral treatment plan in 2020 has become the standard for hepatitis C treatment.
Many hepatitis C patients no longer choose the treatment plan of danorevir plus interferon injection, and the national medical insurance negotiation in November 2019 In China, Danorevir is regrettably out of the game and lost the support of medical insurance.
The future marketization prospects are worrying.

Zai Lab's niraparib p-toluenesulfonate is the first indigenous PARP inhibitor and was approved for marketing at the end of December 2019.
It is used to treat recurrent epithelial ovarian cancer, fallopian tube cancer, or fallopian tube cancer in complete or partial remission of platinum-containing chemotherapy.
Maintenance treatment for adult patients with primary peritoneal ovarian cancer.
In the first half of 2020, its terminal sales in China's public medical institutions will be approximately 16 million yuan.
It is worth mentioning that the drug was first approved in the United States in March 2017 and in Europe in November of the same year.
Based on the approval in the United States and Europe, niraparib was approved in October 2018 and June 2019.
It has been approved to be listed in Hong Kong and Macau successively every month.

Zai Lab's niraparib p-toluenesulfonate is the first indigenous PARP inhibitor and was approved for marketing at the end of December 2019.
It is used to treat recurrent epithelial ovarian cancer, fallopian tube cancer, or fallopian tube cancer in complete or partial remission of platinum-containing chemotherapy.
Maintenance treatment for adult patients with primary peritoneal ovarian cancer.
In the first half of 2020, its terminal sales in China's public medical institutions will be approximately 16 million yuan.
It is worth mentioning that the drug was first approved in the United States in March 2017 and in Europe in November of the same year.
Based on the approval in the United States and Europe, niraparib was approved in October 2018 and June 2019.
It has been approved to be listed in Hong Kong and Macau successively every month.

The prediction of the new drug market has become a problem, and Wall Street's predictions have been distorted in the past 15 years

The prediction of the new drug market has become a difficult problem, and Wall Street’s predictions have been distorted in the past 15 years.
The prediction of the new drug market has become a problem, and Wall Street’s predictions have been distorted in the past 15 years.

At a time when domestic biomedical innovation is in full swing and approved drugs are mushrooming, assessing the marketization potential of new drugs and predicting the sales curve will gradually become a topic of common concern for Chinese pharmaceutical companies and investors.

At a time when domestic biomedical innovation is in full swing and approved drugs are mushrooming, assessing the marketization potential of new drugs and predicting the sales curve will gradually become a topic of common concern for Chinese pharmaceutical companies and investors.

However, predicting the sales of new drugs has always been difficult, even for mature European and American markets.
According to Fierce Pharma, a western medical media, half of the drugs launched in the United States since 2004 are more than 20% lower than Wall Street’s expected sales.
Among them, more than half of cardiovascular drugs, immunological drugs and 48% of anti-infective drugs failed to meet analysts' expectations, while only 38% of oncology drugs did not meet analysts' forecasts.

However, predicting the sales of new drugs has always been difficult, even for mature European and American markets.
According to Fierce Pharma, a western medical media, half of the drugs launched in the United States since 2004 are more than 20% lower than Wall Street’s expected sales.
Among them, more than half of cardiovascular drugs, immunological drugs and 48% of anti-infective drugs failed to meet analysts' expectations, while only 38% of oncology drugs did not meet analysts' forecasts.

According to industry insiders, analysts and small biotech companies tend to underestimate the cost of education and training for clinicians to issue new prescriptions, and overestimate the acceptance of clinical trial data of the product among doctors.
From another point of view, however, it is not so much that the sales of new drugs have not met expectations, as it is that the forecasting model has a deviation from the current market situation.

According to industry insiders, analysts and small biotech companies tend to underestimate the cost of education and training for clinicians to issue new prescriptions, and overestimate the acceptance of clinical trial data of the product among doctors.
From another point of view, however, it is not so much that the sales of new drugs have not met expectations, as it is that the forecasting model has a deviation from the current market situation.

In addition, the report pointed out that BigPharma has better resource allocation and commercialization capabilities than small biotech companies, and the average peak sales volume is 50% higher than that of small companies.
This trend is also reflected in the sales of Chinese innovative drugs after approval.
Companies such as Hengrui, Zhengda Tianqing, BeiGene, and Hausen not only lead the industry in terms of innovation investment, but also have extremely professional marketing teams.
The earth has promoted the marketization of new drugs, and the steady growth in sales has also continuously injected blood for innovation and reinvestment.

In addition, the report pointed out that BigPharma has better resource allocation and commercialization capabilities than small biotech companies, and the average peak sales volume is 50% higher than that of small companies.
This trend is also reflected in the sales of Chinese innovative drugs after approval.
Companies such as Hengrui, Zhengda Tianqing, BeiGene, and Hausen not only lead the industry in terms of innovation investment, but also have extremely professional marketing teams.
The earth has promoted the marketization of new drugs, and the steady growth in sales has also continuously injected blood for innovation and reinvestment.

In short, in the domestic market, not only innovative drugs have just started, but also the leading companies are actively exploring research on marketization strategies for innovative drugs, including hospital promotion and marketing, participating in national medical insurance negotiations and centralized procurement.
As for pharmaceuticals or investors who are concerned about market trends, how to predict the market more accurately and judge the potential space for sales of innovative drugs is a question worthy of the industry's continuous exploration in the next few years.

In short, in the domestic market, not only innovative drugs have just started, but also the leading companies are actively exploring research on marketization strategies for innovative drugs, including hospital promotion and marketing, participating in national medical insurance negotiations and centralized procurement.
As for pharmaceuticals or investors who are concerned about market trends, how to predict the market more accurately and judge the potential space for sales of innovative drugs is a question worthy of the industry's continuous exploration in the next few years.