Blockbuster biopharmaceuticals may welcome a $100 billion market in 2014

Source: before September 12, 2014, according to the annual reports of 50 global enterprises and other official data, researchers analyzed the market sales of the heavyweight biopharmaceutical industry in recent years, and predicted that the global sales of the industry in 2014 would be close to 150 billion yuan Although this conjecture remains to be verified, the market prospect of the heavyweight biopharmaceutical industry is quite optimistic in terms of the momentum presented by various reports The sales of the new "four King Kong" have grown rapidly, and there are many heavy-duty products in the biopharmaceutical market According to the modeling calculation of all heavyweight biopharmaceuticals (products with sales of more than US $1 billion) of 50 large pharmaceutical enterprises in the world, the total sales volume of heavyweight biopharmaceuticals in 2013 reached US $142 billion, with an annual growth rate of 9.1% It is estimated that the global sales volume in 2014 will be close to US $150 billion (see Figure 1) In fact, since 2007 After, the growth rate of global sales of heavyweight biopharmaceuticals has entered a linear growth mode from the exponential growth mode The sales volume has gradually expanded, and the approved new drugs are limited It is difficult to maintain the sales volume of the industry to continue to grow in the exponential mode However, the growth mode of individual products continues to refer to the growth mode or explosive growth mode, and the product level is still "heavyweight bombs" Heavyweight biopharmaceuticals can be divided into several categories: TNF antibody, cancer antibody, virus antibody, erythropoietin, follicle stimulating hormone, interferon α, interferon β, granulocyte colony stimulating factor, enzyme replacement therapy, human growth hormone, inflammatory antibody, ophthalmic antibody, insulin and its analogues, recombinant coagulation factor, etc Billion US dollars won the championship for three years, followed by cancer antibody, insulin and its analogues, and inflammation antibody, becoming the new "four King Kong" in the field of Biopharmaceutics (the top four King Kong: human insulin, human growth hormone, interferon, erythropoietin) Although the first four categories still maintain a high growth trend, erythropoietin is no longer popular and has been exiled to the top five The decline in price year by year may be the reason for the decline in the total sales volume In addition, the market of human growth hormone and interferon has shrunk to varying degrees, and the decline of interference factor α is more than 20% In recent years, according to the analysis of the sales trend, the four new King Kong products are all in a straight-line growth trend, the growth of TNF antibody, cancer antibody, insulin and their analogues is slowing down, and the market of inflammatory antibody is growing rapidly in recent years, indicating that the strength products in the market have appeared (see Figure 2) Among the small categories with annual sales of less than 10 billion, the growth rate of ophthalmic antibody is strong, with an annual growth rate of 25.6% It is expected to break the 10 billion mark in the near future In addition, the sales volume of recombinant coagulation factor has been climbing in recent years, but the growth rate slows down to 4.2% compared with that in 2012, and the possibility of breakthrough in the future is not great (see Figure 3) The market has room for heavyweight products in the global heavyweight biopharmaceutical companies Roche ranked first in 2013 with a sales volume of 29.4 billion US dollars, up 5% from 2012, with a slowdown in growth The total sales volume far exceeded that of Amgen and Sanofi However, Sanofi's overall growth momentum is gratifying Although it has entered the top three, it still maintains a growth rate of 17.5%, while Abbott, the fourth place, is also on the track of rapid growth The current ranking of Amgen may be threatened by Sanofi and Abbott in the future Novo Nordisk and Johnson & Johnson ranked fifth and sixth respectively, but the growth of Johnson & Johnson was strong, with sales growth of nearly 13.4% in 2013, and it is expected to surpass Novo Nordisk in the top five in 2014 (see Figure 4) It is worth noting that the market share of each giant changes little Generally, the market competition is measured by the active market share The larger the active market share is, the more fierce the market competition is In the heavy biopharmaceutical field, the active market share of each company is very low, but this does not mean that the biopharmaceutical field is lack of vitality Although the biopharmaceutical field has made great progress in recent years, the differences among products are large, the market positioning is very accurate, and the situation of multiple companies in the same market are still not formed Therefore, differentiated product positioning is the main reason for weakening the competition in the biopharmaceutical market; in addition, this phenomenon also shows that the potential of biopharmaceutical industry still needs to tap heavy products, and the existing products are far from full of the whole market space.