2017 pharmaceutical industry situation forecast

Source: Bio exploration 2016-12-12 first look at the data of this year From January to September this year, the sales revenue of the pharmaceutical industry increased by 10.1%, 1 percentage point higher than the same period last year However, the growth rate of sales in the drug terminal market has declined significantly, with a growth rate of 7.9% in the first three quarters of this year There is such a split in the data, and the "two vote system" policy issued by the state is the culprit At the 28th national pharmaceutical information conference, director Lin Jianning of Nanfang Institute predicted that in 2017, the sales revenue of the pharmaceutical industry would increase by 13% year on year, and the sales volume of the pharmaceutical terminal market would increase by 7.6% (in the first three quarters of this year, the sales volume of the hospital terminal was 773.8 billion yuan, an increase of 7.6%; the sales volume of the retail terminal was 251.5 billion yuan, an increase of 8.5%; the sales volume of the grassroots medical drugs was 1027 Billion yuan, down to 13.2% year-on-year growth From January to September, the total profit of the pharmaceutical industry was 219.1 billion yuan, up 15.8% year-on-year, up 2.7% year-on-year The total profit growth was significant and higher than the income growth The pharmaceutical industry switched from scale to benefit But in this year's foreign trade of Chinese medicine, the export growth in the first three quarters was - 2.0%, which was not seen in the past decade, mainly due to the shrinking export trade brought about by the devaluation of RMB Take another look at the data of pharmaceutical e-commerce As of September this year, 729 Internet drug transaction qualification certificates have been approved, including 29 certificate a (the third-party transaction service platform approved by the State Food and Drug Administration), accounting for 3.98%; 161 certificate B (the transaction platform between enterprises approved by the local Drug Administration), accounting for 22.09%; and C certificate（ 539 trading platforms between enterprises and consumers were approved by the local drug administration, accounting for 73.94% In 2015, the sales scale of online pharmacies in China was 14.42 billion yuan, an increase of 85.11% year-on-year, breaking through 10 billion yuan for the first time, with a compound growth rate of 131.2% in the past five years " Zong Yungang, deputy director of Nanfang Institute, predicted that the sales scale of online pharmacies in 2016 would reach 28.5 billion yuan With the rapid development of logistics service industry, pharmaceutical e-commerce will have greater development space in the future (if there is policy support, the development will be faster) Based on the current policies and development of the pharmaceutical industry, we can predict that China's pharmaceutical industry will still be in a painful period of reform in 2017 1 The global economy may still be in a downturn For the pressure brought by the export of pharmaceutical products, China's economic growth will not be as good as before The bank forecasts that the GDP growth next year will be 6.5%, IMF and other institutions predict that China's GDP growth will be 6% - 6.8% Many international research institutions have slightly lowered their forecasts on China's economy, and China's economy will still be at a low ebb next year 2 The key year of brand shuffling in the pharmaceutical industry Next year is the key year for the implementation of policies such as consistency evaluation and two vote system High quality enterprises will get better development and non-conforming enterprises will be eliminated 3 The outsourcing organization of pharmaceutical industry will usher in a new round of development Cro enterprises benefit from the consistency evaluation policy, CMO enterprises benefit from the national pilot MAH policy, and CSO enterprises benefit from the two vote system policy, which will have a rapid development next year 4 Medical insurance fee control will be stricter next year According to the overall plan of the State Council, medical insurance control fees will be further strengthened The growth rate of medical expenses should be controlled within 10%, the proportion of hospital drugs should be controlled within 30%, and the controlled payment price of medical insurance will further curb the growth of hospital terminals next year 5 The review and approval of new drugs will be accelerated Up to now, 1193 varieties have been voluntarily returned by CDE enterprises through clinical self-examination through compensation reviewers, and it is expected that the accumulated variety review will be completed next year In the future, a number of varieties will also get "green cards" through priority review 6 Acceleration of M & A among enterprises With the implementation of the reform of state-owned enterprises and the implementation of the policies for the pharmaceutical industry, enterprises with relatively weak strength will face difficulties The merger and acquisition of the pharmaceutical industry will have a rapid development in the next two years, which is also in line with the strategic development direction of the 13th five year plan of the national pharmaceutical industry 7 The direction of drug R & D will gradually shift from generic drugs to innovative drugs (such as the establishment of Transnational R & D centers and the phenomenon of a large number of returnees returning home to start their own businesses), and the purchase of patent rights and sales rights of overseas drugs through capital means will become more and more popular 8 Key drug R & D varieties: antineoplastic drugs, cardio cerebrovascular drugs, antiviral drugs, hypoglycemic drugs, etc 9 The market share of traditional Chinese medicine supported by national policies will increase, and the large varieties of traditional Chinese medicine will have greater development opportunities 10 The big health industry will also have some development Health care treatment is the key to solve chronic diseases Doctors in the future must have the knowledge of nutrition and health care, especially to play the role of nutrition and health care treatment for chronic diseases At present, more than 300 hospitals in China have set up nutrition departments, most of which are top three hospitals 11 Pharmaceutical e-commerce will bring better development with more and more reasonable regulatory policies In the future, the macro environment for pharmaceutical Internet transactions will continue to be favorable, not only will the public's Internet shopping habits change, but also the macro supporting policies will be conducive to the development of pharmaceutical e-commerce for a long time In the aspect of logistics, the new mode of distributors is expected to meet the requirements of instant delivery of drugs, so that the shopping process will become more smooth and convenient, and solve the problem of instant delivery Generally speaking, the pharmaceutical industry will still be in the throes of reform in 2017, which will not only be affected by the macro-economy, but also more prominent by national policies, and will make the industry develop in a more reasonable direction Efficiency, innovation, quality and compliance are still the key words of the pharmaceutical industry in 2017, and perhaps capital can also be added.