2018 pharmaceutical industry forecast: it will be a good year

[China Pharmaceutical network industry trends 】Good policy, good medicine; under the market competition system, the competition to choose the best and get out of the line is neither invested nor advocated by the policy; the great achievements of medical reform can not be wiped out in any way, and the great achievements of 22 years of medical reform are to protect two poor people: farmers and residents, and the problem-solving needs to be done slowly; the endogenous driving force of Chinese medical market is strong, and no one can catch up, but it is big The problem is that the uncertainty of the external environment is likely to have a certain impact; the goal is to "rely on internal reform and build external environment" If it can be achieved, there will be no problem in economic development in the next three years, and no problem in medicine; two major issues should be adhered to: unswervingly follow the road of internationalization, focusing on chemical pharmaceutical preparations; secondly, unswervingly follow the road of innovation driven, focusing on biology Medicine On January 20, the 2018 China pharmaceutical industry new year outlook conference was held in Nanjing under the guidance and support of China Pharmaceutical Enterprise Management Association, jointly sponsored by Jiangbei new area management committee of Nanjing City, e pharmaceutical manager magazine and China Medical and health industry investment 50 people forum Nearly 200 business leaders, more than 10 scientists and more than 500 investors attended the conference, with a total of 1000 participants Yu Mingde, director and former president of Expert Committee of China Pharmaceutical Enterprise Management Association, delivered a keynote speech on the situation and new policy learning of the pharmaceutical industry as the opening prediction The following content is sorted out according to the content of the speech, with some deletions Sustained, stable, healthy and fast can be used to summarize the development of China's pharmaceutical industry in the past 40 years, but each year is different from each other The fluctuation is relatively large In 2007, it was designated as a research year by various ministries and commissions, aiming to write as few policies as possible that are not in line with reality, strengthen investigation and research, and make decision-making more scientific This is a very interesting history Good policy, good medicine We have experienced such a long-term, stable and healthy growth in recent years, first of all, thanks to the reform and opening up of the country, second of all, thanks to the construction of the market economy system, and then thanks to the medical reform This year marks the 40th anniversary of reform and opening up At the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee, the whole work has been focused on the construction of economic system Since then, a number of elite enterprises have emerged How did the elite come out? It is the competition of market competition system, not the investment and policy Secondly, the great achievements of medical reform can not be wiped out in any case The 22 years' achievements of medical reform have protected two poor people: farmers and residents The existing problems need to be solved slowly, not in a hurry From 2009 to 2015, China's total investment in health increased by 20.4% every year, which is a huge number Such growth has brought prosperity to the industry, because the increased investment has expanded the capacity of the pharmaceutical market, which is precisely from government investment In 2017, the pharmaceutical industry was in good condition By the end of November, the main business income had reached 11.9% growth, achieving 17.12% growth of total profit, the profit margin of main business income increased by 11.15%, and the export reached 10.60% The growth of the first two items is not unexpected, maybe a little less than we expected The total profit growth exceeded our expectation, but the average profit of listed companies was not so high, only 13% - 14% We are very encouraged that there is a huge turning point in the value of export delivery, up to 10.68% If the export is not good, it will be crowded at home If the domestic is crowded, it will be difficult for everyone So the turning point of export is coming, which may indicate that next year will be better This eases the pressure of many overcapacity, but the transformation and upgrading of the industry will continue I expect 2018 to be a good year, no matter what The development of the whole pharmaceutical industry in 2018 is certainly a very encouraging situation, because up to now, the figures of the third and fourth quarters of the pharmaceutical industry have been rising, and the rise is higher than our original expectations In 2018, drug sales, profits and exports are expected to continue double-digit growth What has changed is that the pressure of medical insurance fee control should be relatively reduced Since this year, the pressure has gradually increased, and the pressure of public opinion is also great, so it is required to strictly control the cost, control the proportion of drugs and auxiliary drugs Now it seems that the foundation of this demand has been shaken Because in 2012, 2013 and 2014, the situation of low insurance income support changed in 2015 and 2016 In addition, tax cuts will be the focus of 2018 To sum up the current characteristics, I believe that the endogenous market driving force is strong, and no one can catch up with the consumption capacity and potential of China's 1.4 billion people, but a big problem is that the uncertainty of the external environment is likely to have a certain impact So we put forward "relying on reform internally and building environment externally" If these eight words can be achieved, there will be no problem in the economic development of the next few years, especially in the pharmaceutical industry Release economic vitality and reduce institutional success The introduction of unreasonable management policies leads to many problems, which provides reasons for the introduction of more control policies The more unreasonable control policies, the more problems will appear, so the invalid policies will continue to reduce operating efficiency and improve costs One of the most important aspects of the institutional cost is to reduce the unscientific documents The general direction of the documents is right, but some measures are rigid, unscientific and sometimes even barbaric On October 8, the general office of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the opinions on deepening the reform of the review and approval system and encouraging the innovation of pharmaceutical and medical devices, which is an epoch-making and milestone document Thanks to the promotion of this document, the pharmaceutical industry will take on a new look and take a big step forward Because this is a document for changing ideas Its main purpose is not to take me as the center, but to keep up with the international advanced quality level This is the change of ideas It can be said that the reform of drug administration has great efforts, many highlights, major breakthroughs and great praise! In addition, there are two major issues We will unswervingly follow the path of internationalization, focusing on chemical preparations Second, unswervingly follow the path of innovation driven, focusing on biology If the enterprise can grasp the main line of transformation and upgrading, improve quality and efficiency without expansion, and the relevant departments seize the main line of reform, more research, less papers and practical papers, the pharmaceutical industry will develop more continuously, stably, healthily and rapidly Guo yunpei, President of China Pharmaceutical Enterprise Management Association, said in the opening speech that in 2017, the Chinese pharmaceutical industry achieved good results under the support and promotion of deepening medical reform In this year, the main business income of the pharmaceutical industry has achieved double-digit year-on-year growth, and 163 domestic and foreign declared pharmaceutical products have obtained the document number issued by CFDA Meanwhile, the number of drug registration applications for many years has decreased from 8863 at the end of 2012 to less than 4000, and it is expected to achieve the review according to time limit in 2018 In this year, the first batch of 13 varieties passed the consistency evaluation, drug sales in public hospitals achieved a zero plus, and the "two vote system" was fully implemented in reform pilot provinces and cities The proportion of public hospitals in 200 pilot cities has basically dropped to about 30% At the same time, only from January to November in this year, China's pharmaceutical industry completed fixed asset investment of more than 546.8 billion yuan In addition, listed companies with a market value of over 100 billion have grown from two in the past to about seven now It is particularly gratifying that the supply side reform of the pharmaceutical industry has been launched, the pharmaceutical enterprises with innovative strength and endogenous power have begun to take shape, and the Chinese pharmaceutical industry has begun to change from high-speed development to high-quality Guo yunpei also said that in 2018, the majority of pharmaceutical enterprises will undoubtedly face more severe policy baptism and more severe market test At the same time, the conference also released 2017 annual report on investment and financing of China's pharmaceutical industry and report on supply side structural reform of the pharmaceutical industry At the same time, the 2017 China pharmaceutical enterprise transformation and upgrading good partner award was awarded to 9 enterprises Original title: good policy, good medicine! Real industry prediction in 2018: no matter what the storm, it will be a good year