7.6%! In 2015, the growth rate of medical terminals fell to a new low in the past decade

Source: Xinkangjie January 29, 2016 | general situation of the market: the total scale is 1377.5 billion yuan, an increase of 7.6% year on year According to the 2015 annual medical market data released by Zhongkang CMH, a professional medical data research institution in China, the total scale of the medical terminal market in 2015 is 1377.5 billion yuan (calculated by retail price, the same below), an increase of 7.6% year on year The growth rate is 5.6 percentage points lower than that in 2014, a new low in the past decade According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first half of 2015, the main business income and total profit of the pharmaceutical industry increased by 8.9% and 12.8% respectively year on year, down 4.76% and 1.87% respectively year on year Combined with the data of the two, it can be seen that the prosperity of the pharmaceutical industry continued to decline in the second half of 2015, which can also be confirmed by some pharmaceutical listed companies that have published annual reports As of January 20, 29.3% of the 41 pharmaceutical listed companies that have published the 2015 performance forecast have seen their performance decline and loss For example, the company's 2015 net profit decreased by 60% - 80% year-on-year, and the profit of Yibai pharmaceutical decreased by 55% - 65%, according to the performance forecast released by Zhongheng group As more annual reports of listed pharmaceutical companies are published, we will see more serious decline in corporate performance |Breakdown: the growth rate of prescription drugs is lower than the average growth rate of the market From the perspective of prescription type, prescription drugs have always been the profit core of pharmaceutical enterprises, but from last year's situation The situation of prescription drugs is not optimistic According to the statistics of CMH, the total scale of prescription drugs in 2015 was RMB 1175.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth of only 6.9%, lower than the market average growth of 7.6% In contrast, in 2015, the OTC market still maintained an 11% growth, basically the same as the growth in 2014 In terms of ingredients (Note: 3 billion yuan not included in online pharmacies), the market scale of Chinese patent medicine reached 345.7 billion yuan in 2015, up 7.2% year on year, while the sales scale of chemical medicine reached 1028.8 billion yuan, up 7.6% year on year The comparative advantages of Chinese patent medicine over the past years have been reversed in 2015 According to the operation data of the pharmaceutical industry in 2013 and 2014 released by the Ministry of industry and information technology, in 2013, the business income of the Chinese patent medicine manufacturers increased by 21.1% year on year, and that of the chemical drugs increased by 15.8% year on year In 2014, Chinese patent medicine increased by 13.1% year-on-year, while the main business income of chemical preparation manufacturing increased by 12.03% year-on-year It can be seen that the revenue of chemical drugs increased year-on-year, and the gap between chemical drugs and Chinese patent medicines gradually narrowed, and in 2015, chemical drugs exceeded From the performance of domestic and foreign pharmaceutical enterprises (Note: 3 billion yuan not included in online pharmacies), in 2015, the overall drug sales scale of foreign pharmaceutical enterprises in mainland China reached 309.3 billion yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year, lower than the average level The share of foreign drug market dropped to 22.5% The scale of local enterprises is 1065.2 billion yuan, up 7.7% year on year, higher than the average |Market terminals: county level hospitals have become the second terminal From the perspective of major terminals, the terminal with the fastest growth in drug sales in 2015 is the non online drugstore: the sales scale is 3 billion yuan, up 57.9% year on year In recent years, thanks to the development of Internet technology and the transformation of national shopping mode, pharmaceutical e-commerce has been popular in China and abroad In addition to the traditional Internet company Nuggets pharmaceutical market, in 2015, we witnessed the participation of traditional retail pharmacy enterprises and other industrial enterprises Sales scale of major terminal drugs in 2015 (100 million yuan) data source: OTC and Rx market scale of Zhongkang CMH in 2013-2015 (100 million yuan) data source: market scale of chemical drugs and proprietary drugs in 2013-2015 (100 million yuan) data source: Zhongkang CMH in 2013-2015 Data source: Zhongkang CMH retail pharmacies and urban grassroots terminals also achieved growth beyond the industry average, with growth of 11.6% and 11.7% respectively In terms of scale, in 2015, the retail drugstore market reached 226 billion yuan, while the urban grass-roots hospitals reached 82 billion yuan These two terminals benefit from the transfer of patients in urban hospitals In recent years, driven by the government's policies of strengthening the grassroots level and hierarchical diagnosis and treatment, county level hospitals have developed rapidly in recent years In 2015, the sales scale of county level hospitals reached 247 billion yuan, an increase of 9.7% year on year, becoming the second largest terminal after the city level hospitals City level hospitals are still the largest pharmaceutical terminal market, with a sales scale of 751.5 billion yuan in 2015, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, which directly slows down the overall growth of the entire pharmaceutical market In addition, the terminal that is lower than the growth rate of the whole industry is the rural primary medical market, with a growth rate of only 1.9% in 2015 At present, the city level hospitals still have better allocation of medical resources, but in the case that the reimbursement ratio of medical insurance in the level hospitals is significantly lower than that in the basic level hospitals, more and more patients choose the basic level hospitals for treatment With the promotion of medical reform policy, the allocation of medical resources will be gradually balanced, and the scale of drug use in grade hospitals will tend to grow steadily Some of the patients in the city level hospitals have entered the county level hospitals and the city basic level hospitals Especially in the context of the national advocacy of hierarchical diagnosis and treatment, drug use in county level hospitals and urban grass-roots hospitals has grown faster than the industry average in recent years While another part of patients flow into pharmacies, especially some prescription drug enterprises, after the channel is transferred to retail pharmacies, the retail pharmacies ushered in a new round of growth period |Performance of mainstream pharmaceutical enterprises at home and abroad: from the perspective of mainstream enterprises, at present, the sales scale of the top ten foreign pharmaceutical enterprises reaches 167.2 billion yuan, accounting for 54.1% of the sales scale of all foreign pharmaceutical enterprises, while the top ten domestic pharmaceutical enterprises have a total sales volume of 146.9 billion yuan, accounting for the sales scale of all local pharmaceutical enterprises 13.7% 。 No matter concentration or average sales, there is still a big gap between domestic pharmaceutical enterprises and foreign pharmaceutical enterprises Even the top 10 pharmaceutical companies have an average annual sales volume of 2 billion yuan less than foreign pharmaceutical companies However, we can see that the gap is narrowing, especially in recent years, after the state abolished the super national treatment of original research drugs and encouraged import substitution, the trend of "import and export" is becoming more and more obvious, especially in the field of generic drugs This can be seen from the mainstream domestic and foreign pharmaceutical enterprises Compared with the top 10 domestic and foreign drug sales enterprises, the sales scale of foreign drug enterprises increased by 7.2% in 2015, while that of local drug enterprises was 7.6% The growth of local enterprises is slightly better than that of foreign pharmaceutical enterprises Pfizer is still the largest pharmaceutical company in China, followed by AstraZeneca and Bayer, with sales volume of more than 20 billion yuan While maintaining scale advantages, the three pharmaceutical companies have maintained growth beyond the industry average In 2015, the year-on-year sales volume increased by 8.1%, 11.5% and 9.3% respectively Among the top 10 domestic pharmaceutical enterprises, Baiyunshan, Yangzijiang and Harbin Pharmaceutical Group ranked in the top three in terms of drug sales, but only the top two exceeded 20 billion According to the growth of top 10 domestic enterprises, step pharmaceutical, Ruiyang pharmaceutical and Baiyunshan Guangyao ranked in the top three However, some people are happy and some are worried Among the 20 pharmaceutical companies mentioned above, one of the domestic and foreign pharmaceutical companies saw negative growth in sales scale, including GSK and Kelun pharmaceutical, down 2.4% and 3.6% respectively Top 10 market share of foreign pharmaceutical enterprises in 2015 data source: Zhongkang CMH top 10 market share of local pharmaceutical enterprises in 2015 data source: Zhongkang CMH | summary for many years, the pharmaceutical industry has been regarded as a sunrise industry, especially in the context of increasing the coverage of medical insurance and improving the level of medical insurance financing, from 2009 Since, the pharmaceutical industry has ushered in a round of vigorous development period According to the statistics of the Ministry of industry and information technology, in the five years from 2009 to 2013, the scale of output value of the pharmaceutical industry has grown by more than 20% After 2014, the growth rate has dropped all the way For a long time, the analysis of the development space of the pharmaceutical industry in the industry is based on the needs of the people, including the growth of the health awareness of the people, the advent of the aging era and the promotion of urbanization However, in the past two years, the news of insufficient medical insurance funds has been seen in the newspapers from time to time, and medical insurance cost control has become a major national medical reform policy in these two years People's health needs are not equal to people's needs, and insufficient capacity to pay is still the biggest obstacle In the publicity of medical reform in the past two years, the achievements of drug price control have always been put in the first place Under the endless price cutting policies such as bidding price reduction, drug proportion restriction and secondary price negotiation, the overall situation of the drug market in the future is still not optimistic The prosperity of any industry is related to the balance of supply and demand, and the pharmaceutical industry is no exception When there is a gap in medical insurance funds, we can no longer judge the growth of the pharmaceutical industry at this stage according to the criteria of the 12th Five Year Plan period From the perspective of industrial enterprises, the current pharmaceutical market is faced with dual pressures of bid price reduction and drug cost increase How to get rid of the current dilemma, the way to obtain more market share simply from channel transfer is not sustainable, many enterprises may disappear in the transformation, especially the enterprises with serious product homogeneity, no new channel development ability and no new product relay Will lose in the competition The rest will be those enterprises with innovation ability, new channel development ability and outstanding product advantages, such as innovative pharmaceutical enterprises and pharmaceutical enterprises with strong international market development ability Of course, for traditional pharmaceutical companies, there will be some structural opportunities in the current domestic drug market, such as OTC products with strong brand power, traditional Chinese medicine formula granules, and drugs that can meet unmet clinical needs For those enterprises that are unable or unwilling to make innovation, channel transfer is also a feasible way For example, OTC transfers to rural grassroots, and prescription drugs enter retail pharmacies However, it should be reminded that each channel development has a specific marketing mode, and the previous mode of eating the world is no longer feasible Doctor, are you ready?