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After New Year's Day, domestic soybean meal and other feed prices began a new round of price reduction, and international inflation also showed obvious signs of
slowing down.
What will happen to domestic feed prices in 2023?
For this wave of price reductions, domestic research institutions believe that the main reason is that significant changes are taking place at both ends of supply and demand: on the one hand, the number of soybeans arriving at Hong Kong has risen sharply, easing the pressure on supply and demand; On the other hand, the number of positive cases in China has increased, and the market sales speed has begun to slow
down.
In terms of outlooking full-year demand, domestic and foreign institutions have raised their forecasts for China's soybean imports, while the National Grain and Oil Information Center is more optimistic about annual import forecasts, which are expected to reach 95 million tons
.
Looking around the global market, international soybean production in the new year is estimated at 391 million tons, an all-time high, but global cereal stocks are still at their lowest level in a decade, and the global supply and demand pattern remains in a tight balance
.
The market waits for the reality of consumption recovery to price further
.
Last year, the domestic aquaculture consumption market segment performed prominently in the capital market, and for this year's feed demand, domestic research institutions are generally optimistic
.
The "chicken cycle" will rise in the second half of the year, and at the end of the first quarter of this year, the supply of pigs will gradually enter an upward channel, which will drive the feed industry to recover
.
Domestic feed prices began a new round of price reductions
After New Year's Day, domestic soybean meal and other feed prices began a new round of price reduction, generally in the range of 50 yuan - 200 yuan / ton
.
According to the statistics of the data research department of the feed industry information network Huitong, the average price of soybean meal in December last year was 4809.
32 yuan / ton, down more than 600 yuan / ton from the previous month, a decrease of 11.
35%.
Why did last year's strong soybean meal start to continue to weaken? Li Wei, an analyst at Huaan Futures, said that the main reason is that the number of soybeans arriving at domestic oil mills has risen sharply, and the soybean crush has also increased month by month, and the tight supply of domestic soybean meal has gradually eased
.
Customs data showed that in October last year, domestic soybean imports arrived at Hong Kong only 4.
13 million tons, a monthly low
in nearly eight years.
It was not until mid-to-late November last year that soybean arrivals improved, with 7.
35 million tonnes
of soybeans arriving in November.
In December, the market is expected to arrive at 9 million tons to 10 million tons
.
Up to now, the large number of soybeans arriving in Hong Kong has stimulated oil mill operating rates to remain at a high level
of more than 70%.
Shi Lihong of the Futures Research and Development Department of CSC believes that since December last year, the driving factors of the domestic soybean market have mainly been on the demand side
.
The increase in positive cases in China has prompted consumers to be reluctant to go out for their own safety considerations, and the increase in positive patients has also reduced the number of restaurants, vegetable markets and other business entities, superimposed on the approach to the Spring Festival, school holidays, migrant workers returning to their hometowns, the speed of goods in the sales area market is slow, and the market relies on the consumption of bean sources on the national storage and storage
.
However, the State Reserve Bank has continued to cut the purchase price since December last year, which has intensified the wait-and-see mentality
of traders in production and marketing areas.
According to Mysteel Agricultural Products' sample survey of 50 feed enterprises in major regions across the country, as of the week of January 6, 2023 (the first week), the number of soybean meal inventory days of domestic feed enterprises was 10.
23 days, an increase of 1.
05 days or 10.
26%
over the previous week.
Domestic demand is optimistic about all parties, and the global supply and demand pattern remains tightly balanced
Although feed prices in the first week of this year continued last year's decline, market institutions are still generally optimistic
about domestic demand this year.
On January 5, the National Grain and Oil Information Center released the "Monthly Report on Supply and Demand in the Oil and Oilseed Market", predicting that in 2022/23 (October 2022 to September 2023), China's new supply of soybeans will be 115.
29 million tons, its soybean output in China will be 20.
29 million tons, and soybean imports will be 95 million tons
.
In addition, the report predicts that China's new supply of soybean meal in 2022/23 will be 76.
31 million tons, an increase of 3.
46 million tons year-on-year, of which 76.
27 million tons
will be produced in soybean meal.
It is expected that the total annual consumption of domestic soybean meal will be 75.
23 million tons, an increase of 2.
63 million tons year-on-year, of which feed consumption will be 73.
6 million tons, an increase of 2.
6 million tons
year-on-year.
The National Grain and Oil Information Center expects China's total imports in the new year to be 95 million tons, compared with 91.
57 million tons in the previous growing year, and the scale of soybean imports is expected to show a significant increase, which shows that the scale of China's demand remains optimistic
.
In addition, a number of agencies, including the US Department of Agriculture, have also expressed optimistic estimates for Chinese demand, and the latest report of the US Department of Agriculture predicts that China's import scale is 98 million tons
.
On the global supply side, according to the latest monthly supply and demand report released by the US Department of Agriculture, global soybean production in 2022/23 is estimated at 391 million tonnes, an all-time high, an increase of about 10%
year-on-year.
Among them, Brazil soybeans increased the most, estimated at 152 million tons, an increase of 20% year-on-year, setting a new production record; The annual output of the United States was 118 million tons, down 2.
67% year-on-year; Argentina's annual output was 49.
5 million tons, an increase of 12.
76%
year-on-year.
While global soybean production in 2022/23 remained high, global cereal stocks have reached their lowest level in a decade, and there are concerns
about tight supplies.
According to the USDA's monthly supply and demand report, in 2022/23, the US soybean ending carry-over stocks were 220 million bushels, with a stock-to-sales ratio as low as 4.
98%, still at the lowest inventory level
in a decade.
The global soybean carry-over stock was 102 million tons, and although it recovered from the previous year, the stock-to-sales ratio was still at a low level, at 18.
67%.
"The global supply environment is still on the tight side
.
" The latest report of GF Futures believes that although Brazil's planting area and output have increased significantly, the US soybean stock-to-sales ratio is still in a very tight pattern, and the global supply and demand of soybeans is not loose
.
Moreover, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still fermenting, which has a great impact on the global grain market, the market environment is not loose, and the short-term improvement space is limited, the international soybean price has always had strong support
below.
Wait for the reality of consumption recovery before pricing further
"Despite the global soybean production expectations, it is still under the ideal situation of a gradually receding La Niña climate and a return of rainfall in South America, and we are currently in a La Niña climate, and soybean meal price support is still strong
.
" Meierya Futures Agricultural Products Group believes that the domestic soybean meal industry is still tight, the previous 01 contract has repeatedly reached new highs, although the current main force of soybean meal has been switched to the 05 contract, but the industrial supply and demand situation has not completely changed
.
In the U.
S.
futures market, speculative funds increased their net long positions in the Chicago soybean meal futures and options market that week, according to the position report released by the U.
S.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on December 30 last year, which was also the fifth consecutive week of inflows
.
At present, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) in the United States, the most actively traded March contract, quoted at $1492 / bushel, is still near
the $1500 line.
In the domestic capital market, soybean meal ETF (159985) rose 64.
62% last year, ranking first among all listed ETFs, and the fund share reached 364 million shares on January 6 this year from 130 million shares at the beginning of last year, and the inflow of funds was obvious
.
Looking at the performance of the breeding consumer market segment, the chicken industry index (884252) quietly rose by 22.
58%
in the past year.
The Wind Hog Index still rose 9.
85% last year amid wild fluctuations, while the CSI 300 Index fell 21.
27%
over the same period.
"2023 is a big year
for livestock and poultry feed.
" Wang Gan, a researcher at GF Securities, predicts that at the end of the first quarter of this year, the supply of pigs will gradually enter an upward channel, and the poultry inventory is also expected to gradually increase under the stimulation of high profits, and the prosperity of the livestock and poultry feed industry will also pick up
.
;
;After New Year's Day, domestic soybean meal and other feed prices began a new round of price reduction, and international inflation also showed obvious signs of
slowing down.
What will happen to domestic feed prices in 2023?
For this wave of price reductions, domestic research institutions believe that the main reason is that significant changes are taking place at both ends of supply and demand: on the one hand, the number of soybeans arriving at Hong Kong has risen sharply, easing the pressure on supply and demand; On the other hand, the number of positive cases in China has increased, and the market sales speed has begun to slow
down.
In terms of outlooking full-year demand, domestic and foreign institutions have raised their forecasts for China's soybean imports, while the National Grain and Oil Information Center is more optimistic about annual import forecasts, which are expected to reach 95 million tons
.
Looking around the global market, international soybean production in the new year is estimated at 391 million tons, an all-time high, but global cereal stocks are still at their lowest level in a decade, and the global supply and demand pattern remains in a tight balance
.
.
Looking around the global market, international soybean production in the new year is estimated at 391 million tons, an all-time high, but global cereal stocks are still at their lowest level in a decade, and the global supply and demand pattern remains in a tight balance
.
The market waits for the reality of consumption recovery to price further
.
Last year, the domestic aquaculture consumption market segment performed prominently in the capital market, and for this year's feed demand, domestic research institutions are generally optimistic
.
The "chicken cycle" will rise in the second half of the year, and at the end of the first quarter of this year, the supply of pigs will gradually enter an upward channel, which will drive the feed industry to recover
.
Domestic feed prices began a new round of price reductions
Domestic feed prices began a new round of price reduction, domestic feed prices began a new round of price reductionAfter New Year's Day, domestic soybean meal and other feed prices began a new round of price reduction, generally in the range of 50 yuan - 200 yuan / ton
.
According to the statistics of the data research department of the feed industry information network Huitong, the average price of soybean meal in December last year was 4809.
32 yuan / ton, down more than 600 yuan / ton from the previous month, a decrease of 11.
35%.
Why did last year's strong soybean meal start to continue to weaken? Li Wei, an analyst at Huaan Futures, said that the main reason is that the number of soybeans arriving at domestic oil mills has risen sharply, and the soybean crush has also increased month by month, and the tight supply of domestic soybean meal has gradually eased
.
Customs data showed that in October last year, domestic soybean imports arrived at Hong Kong only 4.
13 million tons, a monthly low
in nearly eight years.
It was not until mid-to-late November last year that soybean arrivals improved, with 7.
35 million tonnes
of soybeans arriving in November.
In December, the market is expected to arrive at 9 million tons to 10 million tons
.
Up to now, the large number of soybeans arriving in Hong Kong has stimulated oil mill operating rates to remain at a high level
of more than 70%.
Shi Lihong of the Futures Research and Development Department of CSC believes that since December last year, the driving factors of the domestic soybean market have mainly been on the demand side
.
The increase in positive cases in China has prompted consumers to be reluctant to go out for their own safety considerations, and the increase in positive patients has also reduced the number of restaurants, vegetable markets and other business entities, superimposed on the approach to the Spring Festival, school holidays, migrant workers returning to their hometowns, the speed of goods in the sales area market is slow, and the market relies on the consumption of bean sources on the national storage and storage
.
However, the State Reserve Bank has continued to cut the purchase price since December last year, which has intensified the wait-and-see mentality
of traders in production and marketing areas.
According to Mysteel Agricultural Products' sample survey of 50 feed enterprises in major regions across the country, as of the week of January 6, 2023 (the first week), the number of soybean meal inventory days of domestic feed enterprises was 10.
23 days, an increase of 1.
05 days or 10.
26%
over the previous week.
Domestic demand is optimistic about all parties, and the global supply and demand pattern remains tightly balanced
Domestic demand is optimistic by all parties, the global supply and demand pattern is still tightly balanced, domestic demand is optimistic by all parties, and the global supply and demand pattern is still tightly balancedAlthough feed prices in the first week of this year continued last year's decline, market institutions are still generally optimistic
about domestic demand this year.
On January 5, the National Grain and Oil Information Center released the "Monthly Report on Supply and Demand in the Oil and Oilseed Market", predicting that in 2022/23 (October 2022 to September 2023), China's new supply of soybeans will be 115.
29 million tons, its soybean output in China will be 20.
29 million tons, and soybean imports will be 95 million tons
.
In addition, the report predicts that China's new supply of soybean meal in 2022/23 will be 76.
31 million tons, an increase of 3.
46 million tons year-on-year, of which 76.
27 million tons
will be produced in soybean meal.
It is expected that the total annual consumption of domestic soybean meal will be 75.
23 million tons, an increase of 2.
63 million tons year-on-year, of which feed consumption will be 73.
6 million tons, an increase of 2.
6 million tons
year-on-year.
The National Grain and Oil Information Center expects China's total imports in the new year to be 95 million tons, compared with 91.
57 million tons in the previous growing year, and the scale of soybean imports is expected to show a significant increase, which shows that the scale of China's demand remains optimistic
.
In addition, a number of agencies, including the US Department of Agriculture, have also expressed optimistic estimates for Chinese demand, and the latest report of the US Department of Agriculture predicts that China's import scale is 98 million tons
.
On the global supply side, according to the latest monthly supply and demand report released by the US Department of Agriculture, global soybean production in 2022/23 is estimated at 391 million tonnes, an all-time high, an increase of about 10%
year-on-year.
Among them, Brazil soybeans increased the most, estimated at 152 million tons, an increase of 20% year-on-year, setting a new production record; The annual output of the United States was 118 million tons, down 2.
67% year-on-year; Argentina's annual output was 49.
5 million tons, an increase of 12.
76%
year-on-year.
While global soybean production in 2022/23 remained high, global cereal stocks have reached their lowest level in a decade, and there are concerns
about tight supplies.
According to the USDA's monthly supply and demand report, in 2022/23, the US soybean ending carry-over stocks were 220 million bushels, with a stock-to-sales ratio as low as 4.
98%, still at the lowest inventory level
in a decade.
The global soybean carry-over stock was 102 million tons, and although it recovered from the previous year, the stock-to-sales ratio was still at a low level, at 18.
67%.
about tight supplies.
According to the USDA's monthly supply and demand report, in 2022/23, the US soybean ending carry-over stocks were 220 million bushels, with a stock-to-sales ratio as low as 4.
98%, still at the lowest inventory level
in a decade.
The global soybean carry-over stock was 102 million tons, and although it recovered from the previous year, the stock-to-sales ratio was still at a low level, at 18.
67%.
"The global supply environment is still on the tight side
.
" The latest report of GF Futures believes that although Brazil's planting area and output have increased significantly, the US soybean stock-to-sales ratio is still in a very tight pattern, and the global supply and demand of soybeans is not loose
.
Moreover, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still fermenting, which has a great impact on the global grain market, the market environment is not loose, and the short-term improvement space is limited, the international soybean price has always had strong support
below.
Wait for the reality of consumption recovery before pricing further
Wait for the reality of consumption recovery to further decallate, wait for the reality of consumption recovery to further decallate"Despite the global soybean production expectations, it is still under the ideal situation of a gradually receding La Niña climate and a return of rainfall in South America, and we are currently in a La Niña climate, and soybean meal price support is still strong
.
" Meierya Futures Agricultural Products Group believes that the domestic soybean meal industry is still tight, the previous 01 contract has repeatedly reached new highs, although the current main force of soybean meal has been switched to the 05 contract, but the industrial supply and demand situation has not completely changed
.
In the U.
S.
futures market, speculative funds increased their net long positions in the Chicago soybean meal futures and options market that week, according to the position report released by the U.
S.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on December 30 last year, which was also the fifth consecutive week of inflows
.
At present, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) in the United States, the most actively traded March contract, quoted at $1492 / bushel, is still near
the $1500 line.
In the domestic capital market, soybean meal ETF (159985) rose 64.
62% last year, ranking first among all listed ETFs, and the fund share reached 364 million shares on January 6 this year from 130 million shares at the beginning of last year, and the inflow of funds was obvious
.
Looking at the performance of the breeding consumer market segment, the chicken industry index (884252) quietly rose by 22.
58%
in the past year.
The Wind Hog Index still rose 9.
85% last year amid wild fluctuations, while the CSI 300 Index fell 21.
27%
over the same period.
"2023 is a big year
for livestock and poultry feed.
" Wang Gan, a researcher at GF Securities, predicts that at the end of the first quarter of this year, the supply of pigs will gradually enter an upward channel, and the poultry inventory is also expected to gradually increase under the stimulation of high profits, and the prosperity of the livestock and poultry feed industry will also pick up
.
for livestock and poultry feed.
" Wang Gan, a researcher at GF Securities, predicts that at the end of the first quarter of this year, the supply of pigs will gradually enter an upward channel, and the poultry inventory is also expected to gradually increase under the stimulation of high profits, and the prosperity of the livestock and poultry feed industry will also pick up
.
