A review of the first half of China's beef and mutton market and the outlook for the second half

Introduction: new page 1 compared with the same period last year, China's cattle stocks decreased, and sheep stocks increased, while beef and mutton production increased The price of beef and mutton in China fell seasonally, but it was still higher than that in the same period of last year; the price of beef in the world market fell and the price of mutton continued to rise Compared with the same period last year, in the first half of this year, the export of fresh and frozen beef decreased and the import increased, while the import and export of mutton increased It is predicted that the output of beef and mutton will continue to increase in the second half of the year, the price of beef in the world will continue to be depressed, the price of mutton will continue to rise, the prospect of beef export in China is not optimistic, and the situation of mutton export is good Zwr 1 Compared with the same period of last year, the number of cattle on hand decreased and the number of sheep on hand increased; the output of beef and mutton increased In the second quarter of 2002, the number of cattle on hand was 129.181 million, 0.15% lower than the same period of last year, 0.07% higher than the same period of 2000 Zwr in the second quarter of 2002, the number of cattle in China was 21.833 million, an increase of 4.69% over the same period of last year and 9.46% over the same period of 2000 Among them, there are 3.4592 million cattle in Henan Province, 2.7747 million in Hebei Province, 2.7528 million in Shandong Province, 1.7503 million in Jilin Province, 1.11416 million in Anhui Province, 1.0279 million in Hunan Province, and 1.0176 million in Heilongjiang Province, accounting for 63.78% of the total cattle in China Zwr in the second quarter of 2002, China's beef output was 3.02 million tons, an increase of 6.08% over the same period last year and 11.20% over 2000 Among them, the beef output of Henan Province is 446800 tons, that of Shandong Province is 427300 tons, that of Hebei Province is 418300 tons, that of Jilin Province is 255400 tons, that of Anhui Province is 160100 tons, that of Heilongjiang Province is 151500 tons, that of Hunan Province is 128500 tons, and that of Sichuan Province is 123400 tons, which accounts for 70.34% of the national beef output Zwr in the second quarter of 2002, the number of sheep on hand in China reached 334.357 million, an increase of 4.59% over the same period last year and 5.24% over 2000 Zwr in the second quarter of 2002, China listed 110.603 million sheep, an increase of 5.45% over the same period last year and 13.64% over 2000 Among them, Shandong Province has 20.944 million sheep, Henan Province has 16.7299 million sheep, Hebei Province has 10.9495 million sheep, Xinjiang has 10.8288 million sheep, Jiangsu Province has 7.9439 million sheep, Sichuan Province has 6.048 million sheep, Anhui Province has 5.7805 million sheep, Inner Mongolia has 4.4164 million sheep, Hunan Province has 3.9065 million sheep These nine provinces account for the total number of sheep in China 79.15% of the total Zwr in the second quarter of 2002, the output of mutton in China was 1.485 million tons, an increase of 6.76% over the same period of last year and 15.23% over 2000 Among them, the output of mutton in Shandong Province is 222700 tons, Xinjiang is 194900 tons, Henan is 193500 tons, Hebei is 151900 tons, Sichuan is 95200 tons, Jiangsu is 78700 tons, Inner Mongolia is 66700 tons, Anhui is 66600 tons and Hunan is 58700 tons The output of mutton in these nine provinces accounts for the whole country 76.70% of the total output of mutton Zwr 2 The price of beef and mutton in China fell seasonally, but it was still higher than the average retail price of boneless beef in the second quarter of 2002 in the same period of last year, which was 14.19 yuan / kg, 0.68% lower than that in the first quarter Among them, The retail price of boneless beef in 15 provinces in China showed an upward trend, with the largest increase in Qinghai, Gansu, Henan, Guizhou and Shanghai, up 7.00%, 5.37%, 4.12%, 4.00% and 3.28% respectively; the retail price of beef in 14 provinces showed a downward trend, with Tianjin down 9.58%, Hunan down 8.76%, Jiangxi down 8.06%, Zhejiang down 7.63%, Anhui down 4.81%, The other nine provinces (Xinjiang, Hubei, Jiangsu, Beijing, Guangdong, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Heilongjiang) declined from 0.12% to 4.17% In the first half of this year, the average retail price of boneless beef in China was 14.24 yuan / kg, up 6.72% over the same period last year Zwr in the second quarter of 2002, the average retail price of mutton with bone in China was 15.71 yuan / kg, 3.06% lower than that in the first quarter Among them, the retail price of mutton with bone in four provinces (cities) increased, including 8.58% in Guizhou, 6.24% in Qinghai, 6.08% in Gansu and 1.95% in Shanghai; the retail price of mutton with bone in 26 provinces showed a downward trend, among which Hubei and Jiangxi showed the largest decline, with a decline of 40.00% and 35.21% respectively Zwr in the first half of 2002, the average retail price of mutton with bone in China was 15.96 yuan / kg, 3.60% higher than the same period last year Zwr 3 The price of beef in the world market has declined, and the price of mutton has continued to rise Zwr 1 The price of beef and mutton in the European Union is stable From the price trend of January to June 2002, the price of beef and mutton in the European Union is relatively stable The trend line of beef price is almost parallel to the horizontal axis, and the price of mutton is higher than the price of beef Zwr 2 The price of beef and mutton in the United States has declined to some extent since April 2002 In June 2002, the wholesale price of selected beef (1-3550-700 pounds) decreased by 10.11% over the same period of last year, down by 5.79% over the same period of this year; the wholesale price of selected beef (1-3700-850 pounds) decreased by 10.44% over the same period of last year, down by 5.18% over the same period of this year; the wholesale price of lean meat (1-3700-850 pounds) decreased by 5.44% over the same period of last year, down by 8.76% over the same period of this year; The wholesale price of boneless beef (90% fresh) was 2.45% lower than that of the same period last year and 10.61% lower than that of March this year Zwr 4 Compared with the same period of last year, the export of fresh and frozen beef in the first half of the year decreased and the import increased After March 2002, the export of fresh and frozen beef in China has rebounded, among which the export of beef in May increased by 99.64% compared with that in March, but this still hasn't reversed the unfavorable situation of the export of beef in China From January to May 2002, the export of fresh and frozen beef in China totaled 4790 tons, a decrease of 51.79% over the same period last year Among them, 612 tons were exported to Russia, an increase of 92.45% over the same period last year; 3367 tons were exported to Hong Kong, a decrease of 32.73% over the same period last year Since March 2002, the import of fresh and frozen beef in China has shown a downward trend, among which the import in May is 24.32% lower than that in March However, in the first half of this year, China's beef imports still reached 3583 tons, an increase of 116.75% over the same period last year Zwr v the import and export of mutton increased by 13166 tons from January to May 2002 compared with the same period last year Among them, 9566 tons were imported from New Zealand, accounting for 72.66% of the total imports; 3583 tons were imported from Australia, accounting for 27.21% of the total imports From January to May 2002, the import of mutton increased by 9.83% over the same period last year Zwr from January to May 2002, 788 tons of mutton were exported to China Among them, 638 tons are exported to Hong Kong, accounting for 80.96% of the total export volume; 53 tons are exported to Macao, accounting for 6.73% of the total export volume From January to May 2002, China's mutton export increased by 15.88% compared with the same period last year, and decreased by 63.82% compared with August to December 2001 Zwr (1) the output of beef and mutton in China will continue to increase In the second quarter of this year, China's beef stock decreased compared with last year, and the growth rate of beef production in the second half of this year is expected to be slightly smaller than that in the same period of last year, stable at about 3%; sheep stock increased by 4.59% compared with that in the same period of last year, and the growth rate of mutton production in the second half of this year is expected to be higher than that in the same period of last year Zwr (2) the world beef price continues to be depressed, and the mutton price continues to rise Zwr 1 There is little room for the recovery of Australian beef price Australia is the largest beef exporter in the world Australian beef exports to Japan fell sharply in the first half of 2002 due to the exposure of mad cow disease in Japan and the theft of American beef labels and Australian beef labels by some Japanese domestic manufacturers for Japanese beef to defraud government subsidies By June 30, Australian beef exports to Japan were 28% lower than the same period last year, approaching the lowest level in 1991 / 1992 In addition, although Australia's beef exports to South Korea increased by 25% due to the world cup between South Korea and Japan, with the closing of the world cup, South Korea's demand for Australian beef will also decline At the same time, due to the recent release of 7% of Australia's unallocated quota to the United States, which has promoted the growth of its beef exports to the United States, the United States has become Australia's largest beef exporter this year, accounting for about 45% of the total beef exports to the United States, reaching 403000 tons, an increase of 3.5% over the same period last year However, as the domestic supply of beef in the United States continues to be excessive, there is little potential for Australian beef import demand Judging from the recent situation, the response of beef price recovery in New South Wales and Victoria should be regarded as a temporary phenomenon In the future, Australian beef prices will continue to remain depressed The price of beef in the United States is down Although the number of beef farms in the United States this year is 16% lower than that of last year, the number of beef farms in the United States has increased significantly, which has greatly increased the stock of beef cattle in the United States Moreover, these beef cattle will be listed mainly in the late summer, and the beef production in the United States is expected to increase by 3% in the third quarter In addition to the influence of stock, the increase of carcass weight of single beef cattle is also the main reason for the rapid increase of beef production The price pressure from oversupply is high, and it is expected that US beef prices will continue to fall in the future Zwr 3 The world mutton price will continue to run at a high price At present, mutton is still a hot product in the international market Australia's mutton exports this year are down 5% from last year But Australian lamb exports to the US rose 6% from the same period last year as the US lifted restrictions on Australian lamb imports and the devaluation of the Australian dollar In June this year, due to the shortage of domestic mutton supply, Australia triggered the phenomenon of "fighting for meat" between domestic supermarkets and exporters The price of mutton continued to rise and the export of mutton began to decline In addition, the "mutton producer subsidy" project of the U.S Department of agriculture is continuing, and the price of mutton in the United States is rising steadily Therefore, it can be predicted that the price of mutton in the world will remain high in the future Zwr (III) China's beef export prospects are not optimistic The mutton export situation is good In the first half of 2002, China's beef export to Hong Kong was still affected by Japanese BSE, showing a continuous downward trend Although beef exports to Russia increased significantly, it was not enough to reverse the situation due to the small base in the early stage It is predicted that China's beef export will not increase much in the short term Zwr mutton is mainly exported to Hong Kong and Macao It is predicted that in the future, with the shortage of the world mutton market and the rising price, China's cheap mutton export has a good prospect ZWr