Academician Wang Chen: Now is not the "post-epidemic era", can not slacken

August 14, Wang Chen, President of the Chinese Academy of Engineering
, Chinese Medicine
Beijing Concord Medical College, delivered a keynote speech entitled "The Combination of Normality and Emergency Response - The Strategy of the Current New Crown Prevention and Control" at the 22nd Annual Meeting of the Chinese Association of Science and Technology.
report, Wang Chen analyzed the factors affecting the future epidemic, believed that the current social life and economic operation of our country gradually resumed, the epidemic prevention and control into a pandemic background of the "new normal", and put forward the main measures of normal prevention and control.
report as follows: "
the new crown outbreak, we know that this is now a more serious situation." According to the latest figures, we can see that there have been more than 20 million deaths and more than 700,000 deaths worldwide, and that the epidemic is progressing and spreading. Our country was the first to be severely affected by the outbreak, but the overall situation is now relatively stable.
From the situation in our country, we can see that after the outbreak in Hubei Province, represented by Wuhan, which was more serious in January and February, the outbreak has now generally become clearly controlled, and is basically just a case of intermittent small-scale epidemics, certain small-scale outbreaks.
then some people say that this is a post-epidemic era. But in fact the concept must be clear that this is not a post-epidemic era, it is an epidemic era.
an intermediate point in the epidemic era, are we now in the early, middle or late stages of the epidemic? Is it still in the development period or has it reached the rousing period or is it close to regressing? This is all we need to consider and measure.
it's too early to say exactly what period we're in, and we don't yet know the disease patterns and many characteristics of neo-crown pneumonia. Therefore, to intervene in the outbreak, we must take a positive attitude, that is, to control the outbreak as far as possible, and to take social mobilization and action.
we know that the key to controlling infectious diseases depends on three major factors: first, the isolation of the source of infection, second, cut off the transmission route, and third, the protection of vulnerable populations. This is the general medical principle and rule of infectious diseases.
, we can take a series of measures, such as tracking pathogens, isolating, cutting off the source of infection. Another measure is the so-called technological intervention. Scientific and technological interventions are specialized actions based on scientific discoveries and technological inventions, most typically medical treatment actions, including drugs, preventive actions using vaccines, and so on. Both factors are the most important factors in the intervention of the epidemic, and their interaction affects the overall prevention and control effect of the outbreak.
estimates of future outbreak trends are of global concern, and we, as professionals, have been asked countless times how to judge the trends and trends of the outbreak. As we all know, we do not know enough about the law of the epidemic, the trend of how to go, although you can do some guesses, but it is difficult to really make a very sure prediction.
, especially the most essential factor affecting the outbreak, is actually the characteristics of the virus. In the face of the human body such a new host environment, it is bound to accelerate its evolution and variation to adapt to the human body as a new host. This is a common pattern and phenomenon in the biological world, called the adaptation of the new host. Shown are some genetic changes, and many other changes that manifest them as symptoms: one is pathogenic and the other is propagation. These two aspects are its outstanding problems.
the spread of the disease determines the spread of the epidemic, pathogenicity determines the severity of the disease, including the death rate, the clinical manifestations of infected human body.
know that different strains of viruses, different viruses in different transmission chains, in different transmission processes, there will be many different situations. It is influenced by different individuals, by whether the collective environmental society in which the individual is subject to isolation intervention, by whether the individual has been vaccinated, and whether the individual has had an effective intervention drug.
many factors, in so many variables uncertain situation constitutes a very complex situation, it is really difficult to predict. Therefore, it is extremely difficult to predict the outbreak, and accurate prediction should be said to be almost unable.
WHO tried to answer this question, organizing a number of experts to study the trend of the outbreak. According to WHO, the global risk level of COVID-19 is clearly very high. It is obvious that the global situation can be seen.
another pandemic is expected to last a long time, and the mainstream WHO view is that it is still a few years. We don't expect that, but that's an estimate of the experts. I would like to emphasize that these estimates are very preliminary and it is difficult to talk about accurate estimates.
and this time, it's clear that this is not a time to slack off, including China. It is also a public health event with global implications.
Is now, in addition to the new crown outbreak, we must also consider whether the autumn and winter season will be associated with seasonal influenza, emerging influenza and other respiratory infections, interaction, thereby increasing its complexity." Whether there are any other factors in human society or nature that are involved is something we must consider.
we all know that in the epidemic of infectious diseases, social conditions are crucial, and changes in the natural environment are essential. And infectious diseases are divided into different types, especially since they have appeared more than once in history. We must be wary of the fact that human beings are the most difficult to prevent the interaction of many infectious diseases.
From the World Health Organization to the Western Pacific region, where we live, a series of risk projections have been made, based on global and regional conditions, and a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of social interventions and scientific and technological interventions has been adopted.
social resources are limited, human society has a lot of things to do. The factors affecting people's livelihood are not only infectious diseases, although this infectious disease is a great disturbance, a sudden disturbance factor that has not changed in a century, but also a major issue related to social stability and national stability, but also appropriate and appropriate, which is a problem we should consider.
So should take a free-for-all approach, not to pursue a very large disproportionate cost and benefit ratio, the outbreak pressure is extremely low, but to take a moderate efficiency ratio in the degree to which the outbreak can be controlled. You want to put the outbreak very low, the cost of input is great, moderate circumstances in line with the law of the disease itself, in line with human beings to take care of many aspects of coordinated development, that is, the central government put forward to coordinate the outbreak prevention and control and socio-economic development of the balance between such a problem.
As far as our country is about, if we let it go, there may be a relatively long-lasting increase in the extent of the outbreak, this time we have to take some more important measures, always maintain such pressure to a certain extent, but at the same time the society can be relatively normal operation of the degree."
I repeat, this judgment is based on accurate surveillance of the outbreak.
The basic judgment of China's current state of epidemic prevention and control is this:
local outbreak transmission is basically blocked, the distribution of small-scale epidemics and outbreaks are intermittent, normal appearance, overseas epidemic pressure on us caused by the input pressure is long-standing, social production and economic operation and epidemic prevention and control between the epidemic, the epidemic between the formation of a new normal, this is the situation we are currently facing.
We have to seize some key technical points, such as Wuhan, Beijing, Dalian, as well as many international outbreaks, are related to the seafood market and processing plants, why is this so?
we actually analyze the preliminary truth: seafood is cold-chain transport, in the transport process, the virus is easy to survive, and seafood is the most long-distance transport of all kinds of food. Long-distance transportation means covering sea products that may be shipped here from all over the world, including products from different sources, which is a lesson we have found to be learned.
so to deal with these outbreaks, can no longer take a case-by-case approach, but should be regular exploration, the formulation of appropriate control measures and the formation of appropriate regulations and regulations, and effective implementation.
There are now two changes, in the area of epidemic prevention and control we must pay attention to: one change is to change from a comprehensive emergency disposal to a normal combination of prevention and control and emergency disposal;
This is what we emphasize as a surveillance-based response to the outbreak, and the relevant administrative and business units must maintain an efficient, sensitive and professional state in order to ensure normalcy." Professional judgment, professional management, this needs to be emphasized.
particular need to pay attention to a situation in our country is the power of science and technology, the power of experts, especially after real research, thinking, the role of experts who can speak up is essential.
are all listed to create a new situation. For example, now we say that the crowd gathering situation to control, some personal habits and so on to pay attention to. In the process of production and life, we should also really take into account the problem of epidemic prevention. This is our new normal, and all parties must abide by it.
of the main measures of normalization, it should be clear that one is to initiate such preparations for severe scenario emergencies and the other is to establish a highly sensitive year-on-year surveillance system for infectious diseases such as new coronary pneumonia and influenza.
I would like to remind you that if the new crown pneumonia and influenza re-emerge this autumn and winter, it will be a very prominent problem. It is extremely important to maintain a flexible response level adjustment mechanism, and actively carry out scientific research, only by casting the sword of science and technology can we prevent and control the epidemic more effectively.
to do some emergency preparedness, can no longer become a complete encounter, to become a prepared battle. For example, the most effective way to expand medical resources, 80%, 85%, 90% are general patients with mild illness, with square cabin hospital solutions, quickly isolate all patients, rebuild the health care system and so on. In addition, such as detection capabilities and so on, to do planning preparation.
mechanism of "peaceful transformation" is a kind of adjustment of human social resources. It is not possible to form a new normal without engaging in "peaceful combination".
medical resources must be replenished. Frankly speaking, I hope to strengthen the importance that our country attaches to medicine. It is vital that social resources are truly available on health care.
our contingency plan must be adequate, and it is a scientific emergency plan.
the scientific nature of emergency plans needs to be assessed and is really needed to be controlled and revised. It is emphasized that once influenza is combined this winter, spring, autumn and spring, it will be very difficult to identify diagnosis, the difficulty of isolating the population will increase significantly, the investment of social resources will increase significantly, and the mortality rate will increase significantly.
In fact, the number of people dying from influenza each year is large, and the new crown interaction in one piece, the impact on social psychology, social stability can not be underestimated, of which the most effective way is to get the flu vaccine in a timely and universal manner.
I hope that Shandong Province and the whole country fully consider this issue, if necessary, we can give specific technical advice, influenza vaccine is generally before the end of September this year, no later than October injection, to fully large population vaccination, which is a very important recommendation we give."
face of the new crown, we now have to think about ourselves, whether there is still a lack of a little longer-term planning and planning. People have no worries must have near worries, this must be taken into account.
the present era of the epidemic and the future post-epidemic era, we must effectively strengthen the medical and health services and support the development of the health industry of the medical and health undertakings. Pain, do not forget the pain, pain and wisdom, lost and blessed, this sentence should be all remembered in the mind, can not suddenly forget this thing. Health care and the health industry, which must be given full attention.
(compiled by our reporter according to Wang Chen academician's recording)