After many years of anti drug restriction, the market of antibiotics has entered a new normal

Source: CPHL Pharma online 2017-07-13 in 2012, the national health and Family Planning Commission issued the "management measures for clinical use of antimicrobial drugs", proposed three-level management measures for antibiotics, severely punished the doctors who violated the rules, which is known as the most stringent anti drug order in history Since then, the health and Family Planning Commission has issued a number of regulations Under the anti drug restriction order, many antibiotics have been included in the scope of "restricted drugs" and "special drugs" The market development has been greatly limited, the sales volume has shrunk, and the market has been reshuffled Over the past few years, the trend of antibiotic market in China has attracted people's attention Total amount: in recent years, the market of anti infective drugs in China has experienced the stages of rise, rapid fall, recovery and normalization In terms of data, antibacterials showed negative growth in 2011-2012 due to restriction of antibacterials, but began to pick up in 2013 According to relevant data, in recent years, the overall scale of China's anti infective drug market has shown a growing trend The sales of anti infective drugs in hospitals in key cities in China from 2011 to 2014 were respectively 19.16 billion, 19.35 billion, 20.11 billion and 22.22 billion In 2015, the market scale of anti infective drugs for sample hospitals in 22 key cities in China reached 23.25 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6% year on year In addition, in recent years, the annual growth rate of systemic antibacterial drugs in national sample hospitals was negative (- 1.0%) in 2013, 9.8% in 2014, 4.0% in 2015 and 7.5% in 2016 Recently, the health and Family Planning Commission and some provinces have introduced some new anti infective drug use management measures, including limiting the outpatient intravenous infusion of anti infective drugs, 2015 version of the guiding principles of clinical application of anti infective drugs, etc After the last round of anti infective drug restriction, the use of anti infective drugs in hospitals has been standardized The marginal effect of new anti infective drug restriction management on the market of anti infective drugs has been reduced, and the market of anti infective drugs has maintained a relatively stable growth trend Market: started to differentiate in the overall stable market trend, antibiotic market also appeared differentiation trend First, the use of antibiotics in large hospitals in big cities is on the decline, and the use of basic hospitals and community hospitals is on the rise Second, the proportion of unrestricted antibiotics in the market, especially in basic level hospitals and community hospitals, is constantly increasing, and the proportion of restricted antibiotics in the market is gradually decreasing Data shows that in 2016, in the statistics of the frequency of antimicrobial use in hospitals at all levels in China, the proportion of unrestricted use of antimicrobial drugs in the third level comprehensive sample hospitals, second level comprehensive hospitals and community health centers were 69.4%, 72.9% and 87.2% respectively The proportion of restricted use antibiotics was 28.6%, 25.9% and 12.8% respectively Future: Trend Outlook according to the analysis, China's antibiotic market will enter the new normal in the future, showing a steady and rising trend, neither rising sharply nor falling sharply The reasons are as follows: at present, antimicrobial drugs in China are divided into restricted, unrestricted and special use levels The classification standard is similar to the new WHO standard Doctors who can use these three types of antimicrobial drugs have strict prescription rights restrictions After several years of anti-bacterial restriction, the proportion of anti-bacterial drug purchase in the total drug purchase of large hospitals in big cities in China is decreasing year by year, which has decreased from the previous 35% - 40% to 15% - 20% In the future, it will gradually decrease, and the possibility of a significant increase is very small Although it will not rise sharply, it is unlikely to fall sharply The first reason is that since the reform and opening up, China's pharmaceutical market has developed rapidly and the total market volume has been rising Some data show that the compound growth rate of China's drug consumption in 2002-2013 has reached nearly 20%, showing a good growth In 2002, the total scale of China's drug consumption market was 208 billion yuan In 2013, it exceeded trillion yuan In 2015, it reached 150 billion yuan In recent years, the growth rate has basically stabilized at about 16% Second, China has a population of 1.4 billion, which is very large In recent years, the state has been deeply promoting the reform of social security system, accelerating the participation of the whole people in the insurance plan, and the investment of governments at all levels in medical insurance is also increasing At present, more than 1.3 billion people have joined all kinds of medical insurance in the country, and the level of security is rising with the economic development Such a huge market will make the market of antibacterial drugs grow steadily in the future Third, the abuse of antibiotics in China has been serious for a long time Many diseases such as cold and fever will use antibiotics, and most of them are infusion therapy The long-term use has formed a kind of inertia It seems that there is a little bit less antibacterials for doctors Many people also put the antibacterials into small medicine boxes as household commonly used drugs It is expected that this inertia will last for a while in the future, and play a certain role in the anti biotin market.