Analysis of more than just reasons for corn price decline

Introduction: domestic corn has experienced a period of about four months since its high fall in mid July, and there are still signs of bottoming up At present, the price of corn in the production and marketing areas has declined again Among them, the price of corn in Jilin production area has fallen to 1020 yuan / ton, the lowest to 1000 yuan / ton The purchase price of new corn in North China has fallen recently, down about 2 yuan / 100jin compared with the previous period However, as a major market area of corn, the market price of Nanchang area has also fallen to a certain extent, and a large number of new corn has fallen from 1200 yuan / ton in the early stage of market to 1010 yuan now/ Tons up and down Combined with the current market situation, we make the following analysis on some factors affecting the decline of corn: 1 Agrometeorology: first of all, let's review the first reason for this round of corn falling again After entering July, there has been a continuous rainfall process in all major corn producing areas, which not only alleviates the drought in the producing areas, but also increases the expected corn production in the market instead of decreasing, which makes the domestic corn price begin to fall from a high level From the current actual production, we have This year's corn output is about 110 million tons 2 Seasonal difference: from the market situation in the past years, every year when corn is listed, its price has a callback process, because the market at this stage is just in the blue and yellow period, the grain department in the production area is busy launching old grain to expand the storage capacity, while the grain enterprises in the sales area are waiting for the new grain to be listed, which results in the situation of whether the market has a price or not At the same time, the market is also looking forward to the coming market The reasonable market orientation of new corn 3 Acquisition policy: in addition to the three northeastern provinces and one region still implementing the corn protection price acquisition this year, the corn market in other production areas is generally liberalized Therefore, the number of subjects participating in the acquisition is increasing In addition, the grain sector mostly adopts the way of sales order, loan order, and independent operation is loose, which makes the new corn in these production areas appear the trend of flat opening and low going as soon as it is listed It is understood that although the purchase price of corn issued by the three northeastern provinces is higher than that of last year, the actual price level is equivalent to that of last year The reason is that this year's corn will be purchased according to the new quality standard, requiring a unit weight of 685g / L the grain Department will also implement water and miscellaneous deduction for substandard corn 4 Treatment of aged grain: the recent competitive sale of aged grain in Zhengzhou, Dalian and other places makes nearly one million tons of degraded corn flow into the market, and the average sale price of 830 yuan / ton in Zhengzhou and 900 yuan / ton in Dalian are significantly lower than the market price, which will depress the already weak corn market At the same time, more than one million tons of rice and wheat are also being processed The aged grains of this batch of directional feed and wine making industry will also have a negative impact on the grain price, and the processing of aged grains will continue to follow up all over the country 5 Export blocked: while the pattern of domestic corn supply exceeding demand has not changed, the export volume of corn has declined significantly, which has played a certain role in promoting the decline of domestic corn As of October this year, China has exported 4.86 million tons of corn, compared with 8.6712 million tons from January to October last year, a decrease of 43.7% One of the reasons is the lack of competitiveness of high Chinese corn prices in the international market It is understood that South Korea, a major corn importer in China, has recently purchased 52000 tons of corn at US $101.9/ton C & F, and has rejected subsequent bids on the grounds that the price offered by exporters is too high 6 China's accession to the WTO: China has entered the WTO, which is unfavorable to the corn exported by the way of government subsidies in the past At that time, the domestic high planting cost will be difficult to achieve corn export At the same time, it will be inevitable for foreign corn with better quality and lower price to be imported into China The domestic market price is bound to be impacted again, and the corn market price will seek a new balance point, which should be lower than the current price level Affected by this mentality, the domestic corn price will further decline in the near future TEV