Analysis of China's pharmaceutical foreign trade situation in 2018-2019: seeking for import volume increase and price decrease while export volume is stable

According to the statistics of China Customs, in 2018, China's total import and export of medical and health care products reached US $114.851 billion, down 1.56% year on year Among them, export reached 64.422 billion US dollars, an increase of 5.96%, and maintained a high growth rate Import reached 50.429 billion US dollars, down 9.75% year on year, with a foreign trade surplus of 13.993 billion US dollars On the whole, in 2018, the supply side structural reform drove the pharmaceutical export volume and price to increase together, and the export volume was steady On the contrary, the pharmaceutical import volume increased and price decreased (the import volume increased by 9.52% year-on-year, and the average import price decreased by 17.6%) Although the domestic demand still increased, the price of major imported medical products, such as western medicine preparations and biochemical drugs decreased, and the import volume increased negatively 1、 Overall situation (I) the export of traditional Chinese medicine increased steadily in 2018, with the export amount of traditional Chinese medicine reaching US $3.909 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.39% The average export price increased by 16.69% year on year, which led to the growth of export volume of traditional Chinese medicine According to the classification of export of traditional Chinese medicine, plant extracts accounting for more than 50% were the most active, with an export volume of 2.368 billion US dollars, up 17.79% year on year Chinese patent medicine was the second, with an export volume of 264 million US dollars, up 5.51% year-on-year The export price of Chinese herbal medicine and decoction pieces increased slightly, only 1.98%, but the export volume decreased significantly, down 11.25% In particular, the continuous downturn in Southeast Asia is the main reason for the negative growth of traditional Chinese medicine and Chinese Herbal Pieces for two consecutive years （2） The export structure of Western medicine was optimized, and the proportion of pharmaceutical products increased in 2018 China's export of Western medicine products reached 36.883 billion US dollars, an increase of 4.03% Among them, API exports reached US $30.048 billion, up 3.20% year on year For major markets such as the United States, the European Union and India, the growth rate was 8.87%, 3.56% and 1.71%, respectively, slowing down Compared with 2017, the main reason is that although the capacity supply of API enterprises is relatively sufficient, the external demand is weak and the growth of API export is limited The export of preparations reached US $4.1 billion, up 18.64% year on year The growth of the regulatory market is strong, with the EU, Australia and the US ranking the top three in the regulatory market, with us $1207, 422 and 387 million respectively In the past two years, the growth of preparations exported to the EU market has been rapid, with an increase of 53.51% in 2017; in 2018, the growth rate reached a new high, reaching 80.30%, and the export volume surged by US $1.207 billion （3） In 2018, the export of medical devices continued to grow steadily, with a total amount of US $23.63 billion, up 8.88% year on year Among them, medical dressings, disposable consumables, diagnosis and treatment equipment, health rehabilitation equipment and dental equipment all achieved steady growth, with an increase of 7.48%, 9.14%, 7.18%, 10.79% and 18.50% respectively As a whole, the coordination of the development and growth of China's foreign trade in medical devices continues to improve, the trade structure continues to optimize, the quality and efficiency continue to improve, and new momentum continues to accumulate （4） For the first time, there was a negative growth in pharmaceutical imports in 2018 The import value of pharmaceutical products in China reached US $50.429 billion, down 9.75% year on year The main reason for the decline was the sharp decline in the import of Western medicine products, especially western medicine preparations and biochemical drugs, which led to the decrease of 24.05% and 13.03 billion US dollars in the import of Western medicine preparations, and 41.21% and 4.753 billion US dollars in biochemical drugs, which ranked the fourth in the import Although the import volume decreased significantly, the import volume did not change much In 2018, the import volume of biochemical drugs decreased by 7.67%, while the import volume of Western medicine increased by 1.75% instead of decreasing In 2018, 17 kinds of anticancer drugs were significantly reduced and included in the national medical insurance catalog A series of policies such as consistency evaluation and "4 + 7 centralized purchase" accelerated the competition of enterprises, which led to the decrease of the price of imported drugs According to the data, the average import price of Western medicine decreased by 25.36% year on year, while that of biochemical medicine decreased by 36.32% year on year 2、 Key words of foreign trade of medicine in 2018 (1) over the years, the price of imported medicine in China has continued to grow; this year, for the first time, it has reversed Through analysis, we believe that the main reason for the negative growth of pharmaceutical import is the reduction of import drug price, which is closely related to the hot topic "consistency evaluation and 4 + 7 centralized purchase policy" of domestic pharmaceutical industry in 2018 We also believe that if the original overseas pharmaceutical companies want to maintain a certain amount of Chinese market, the price of imported drugs is bound to maintain a low level, or even further reduce From a group of latest data, we can see the first clue: on March 5, this year, Shanghai Sunshine pharmaceutical purchase network issued a notice, the agreement purchase price of some unselected "4 + 7 purchase" varieties was reduced, and the original research variety of Novartis imatinib mesylate tablets (100mg * 60 Tablets / box, PVC aluminum blister packaging) was listed; on March 4, Zhejiang Pharmaceutical purchase center issued a notice, and Lilai's peimei for injection The purchase price of trisecyl disodium was lowered actively （2） In recent years, the export of pharmaceutical preparations has become one of the important signs for Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises to "go out" Data shows that in 2018, China's pharmaceutical exports to developed markets reached US $2.372 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.39% The growth of European, American and Japanese standard markets is very significant, with the growth rate of 80.30%, 24.62% and 27.49% respectively The large-scale growth of pharmaceutical export is not a one-day success, thanks to the long-term efforts of our pharmaceutical enterprises Leading pharmaceutical enterprises such as Huahai pharmaceutical, Tiandao pharmaceutical, Hengrui pharmaceutical, Qilu pharmaceutical and humanwell puck continue to lead the export of pharmaceutical developed markets In 2018, the number of Anda approved by Chinese enterprises reached a new record, with 71 anda approvals, 16 of which are temporary Guangdong dongyangguang, Huahai pharmaceutical and humanwell pharmaceutical have the largest number of approvals, which are 12, 11 and 6 respectively (anda batches of different specifications are calculated as one) By the end of 2018, China's enterprises had 455 valid approval numbers (excluding temporary approval numbers), including nearly 200 products of different enterprises Three one belt, one road, one belt, one road, China's total import and export volume of medicine in the "one belt and one way" area increased by 6.72% in the US $23 billion 549 million, compared with the same period in 2018 In 2018, the growth rate of global pharmaceutical trade in China was -1.56% It can be seen one hand, the "one belt, one road" countries' pharmaceutical trade is more active than other markets around the world One belt, one road, was exported to China in 2018 The total value of the pharmaceutical products exported to China along the belt road was 18 billion 383 million US dollars, up 4.90% over the same period last year In terms of imports one belt, one road, and other countries along the way have imported two years of medical products In 2018, one belt, one road, was imported from China to US $5 billion 166 million, an increase of 18.11% over the same period last year （4） At the turning point of generic innovation, China is the world's largest producer of generic drugs More than 90% of the country's more than 4300 pharmaceutical raw materials and preparations manufacturers are generic companies Due to various reasons, the quality level of generic companies is uneven At present, the consensus evaluation in full swing is a major reshuffle of my generic pharmaceutical industry It can be said that China's pharmaceutical industry is in the critical period of the turning point of imitation The optimization of the export structure of pharmaceutical products and the continuous increase of the export share of developed markets also show that our pharmaceutical enterprises are gradually improving their own strength and gradually transiting from imitation to independent innovation The rapid growth of medical consumption upgrading demand in China market, the return and Entrepreneurship of overseas scientists, and the vigorous promotion of capital are all driving the transformation of China's pharmaceutical industry from imitation to innovation Chinese pharmaceutical companies at the critical period of the turning point of imitation are trying to take the tide of the times and sail far （5） In recent years, trade frictions have accelerated the pace of internationalization of domestic enterprises, and they are developing towards the high-end, which has caused more and more countries' conflicts In the past, the trade frictions we encountered were mainly limited to specific products and other cases, most of which were affected by individual industries or enterprises, and the overall export competitive advantage was basically not challenged However, this year, the phenomenon of trade friction from the original friction cases to the penetration of institutional mechanisms has intensified The biggest impact in 2018 is the Sino US trade war Since April, the United States has announced three times that it will impose tariffs on the products of about 200 billion US dollars that I export to the United States Through the joint efforts of the chamber of Commerce of medical insurance and relevant pharmaceutical enterprises, at present, the final tax list implemented by the US side has excluded API and preparation products, and only 27 medical device products are reserved, most of which are advanced medical devices such as MRI, CT, ultrasound, linear accelerator, pacemaker, etc In addition, in 2018, China's exported pharmaceutical products encountered 8 trade friction cases such as anti-dumping and 337 investigations from India and the United States, involving products such as glycosylated stevioside, glycine, paracetamol and blood cholesterol tester Whenever a case occurs, the chamber of Commerce will release relevant case information at the first time, organize response in time, coordinate response to key cases, take the lead in industry harmless defense, prepare relevant defense opinions and hearing statement materials, and work with enterprises to safeguard their legitimate rights and interests 3、 Basic trend of Pharmaceutical Foreign Trade in 2019 We predict that in 2019, the steady growth trend of pharmaceutical exports will continue; although the import price of preparations may continue to decline or maintain the current level, with the easing of trade frictions between China and the United States and the leading role of Import Expo, China's pharmaceutical imports will return to a steady growth trend, and the amount of pharmaceutical imports will gradually return to a positive growth China's pharmaceutical enterprises will continue to improve their capabilities in terms of international registration and certification, R & D, international marketing, and global resource integration; pharmaceutical enterprises at the turning point of imitation and innovation will have a "qualitative change" again in the near future, and the pattern of pharmaceutical export products and market will also have a profound change Appendix: classification statistics of import and export commodities of China's medical and health products in 2018 (unit: US $100 million,%)