Analysis of the actual planting area and yield prospects of new corn in the United States

the annual planting of corn in the United States began in early April of that year and was largely completed by late MayBut this year, the planting time of corn for the new season has been repeatedly delayed due to wet and cold weatherThis year's corn seeding basically starts in mid-April, and although this year's starting point does not seem to be too late, the seeding process is often interrupted by rain and the planting period is extendedAccording to the Latest USDA Planting Progress Report, the seeding rate for the new season of corn in the United States was 91% in the week ended June 2In addition, the U.Sagricultural weather forecast began on June 3 in the week, a new round of rain revisited the corn belt, the planting process again interruptedAn agricultural meteorologist added on June 5 that intermittent rainfall would slow seeding in the Midwest during the week beginning June 10b3M
The delayed new season of corn seeding has raised concerns in the marketDemanders, whether growers, traders or farmers, have expressed strong concern about the weather conditions in the corn belt and the cultivation of cornThe weather and the progress of planting have been key factors in the recent trend of U.ScornAt the same time, the planting area and yield estimates for the new season of corn in the United States this year have become the focus of the major analysis agenciesA survey of 15 analysts released on June 3rd showed that U.Scorn cultivation would be 2 million acres or 2 percent lower than the U.SDepartment of Agriculture's estimate for May's supply-demand balance report, with an average yield of 158.2 bushels per acre, and the U.SDepartment of Agriculture's May supply-demand balance report estimated corn cultivation this year and yieldlevels at 97.3 million and 158 bushels per acre, respectively In addition, analysts expect U.S farmers to switch to soybeans, which can be sown in June and have a yield potential that can be maintained even with a shorter season b3M
Therefore, in general, there are three points of general concern in the market for the delay in the planting of new-season corn in the United States: b3M first, the actual planting area ; b3M
The third point is closely related to the first point, which we will analyze together in the following b3M
First, let's analyze the increase or decrease in the actual area of cultivation b3M
The U.S Department of Agriculture issues a crop planting intent report at the end of March each year, which leads to estimates of new planting areas for the year by surveying growers about their planting intentions According to this year's Planting Intent Report, the new season corn is estimated to be 97.3 million acres, the largest corn cultivation in U.S history But good expectations are often broken by the harsh reality The delay in planting time has led to concerns and doubts about the completion of the planting area From the current situation, this year's corn actual planting area is less than expected area is more likely, but the author's analysis will not significantly reduce, the actual planting area may be less than expected area of 1 million acres or less b3M
The chart below shows the basic time of planting corn each year in the United States since the U.S Department of Agriculture recorded it As can be seen from the chart below, U.S corn seeding is usually almost complete by the end of May In addition to 2009, the delay until June to complete the planting of the year, the actual area of corn cultivation in that year has been reduced to varying degrees, the largest reduction is in 1995, when the corn seeding was basically completed on June 18, the actual planting surface reduced by 3.82 million mu than expected Both the start of sowing time and the completion of sowing were similar to this year's 2011, when the actual area under cultivation was only 264,000 mu less than expected b3M
B3M b3M above is only an analytical forecast based on the completion time of the previous year and similar weather conditions Often, if corn sowing is significantly delayed, growers have three options: to continue growing corn, which risks a reduction in eventual planting and a decline in yields; Regardless of the choices that growers make, expected returns should be the most fundamental factor In recent years, global corn prices have risen steadily, and corn cultivation has become increasingly popular with growers, and last year, as a result of a rare and extreme drought, it hit corn production that year and pushed corn prices to record highs In pursuit of high yields, U.S growers have shown a strong enthusiasm for corn crops, as evidenced by this year's continued surge in the area of planting intention Therefore, if it is not to reach the point where the planting period is too long to continue to grow corn, growers are expected to choose to continue to grow corn b3M
Second, make a look ahead to the production outlook b3M
"Due to the delay in planting periods, whatever choice sourcing growers are exposed to the risk of a reduction in the actual area under cultivation of maize than expected, this does not lead to a corresponding reduction in final yields and yields." Although the U.S Department of Agriculture's latest report shows that the U.S corn growth rate for the week ended June 2 was 63 percent, the same as in 2008 and the lowest level since 2002, factors that affect final yields and yields will be critical to the long-term weather conditions, and it now appears that the abundant moisture from spring rainfall will accelerate the growth of sown crops If the long-term weather conditions for late-stage corn production continue to be good, U.S corn production is still likely to increase this year, provided that extreme weather conditions like last year do not recur b3M the annual planting of corn in the United States will begin in early April of that year and be completed by the end of May But this year, the planting time of corn for the new season has been repeatedly delayed due to wet and cold weather This year's corn seeding basically starts in mid-April, and although this year's starting point does not seem to be too late, the seeding process is often interrupted by rain and the planting period is extended According to the Latest USDA Planting Progress Report, the seeding rate for the new season of corn in the United States was 91% in the week ended June 2 In addition, the U.S agricultural weather forecast began on June 3 in the week, a new round of rain revisited the corn belt, the planting process again interrupted An agricultural meteorologist added on June 5 that intermittent rainfall would slow seeding in the Midwest during the week beginning June 10 b3M
The delayed new season of corn seeding has raised concerns in the market Demanders, whether growers, traders or farmers, have expressed strong concern about the weather conditions in the corn belt and the cultivation of corn The weather and the progress of planting have been key factors in the recent trend of U.S corn At the same time, the planting area and yield estimates for the new season of corn in the United States this year have become the focus of the major analysis agencies A survey of 15 analysts released on June 3rd showed that U.S corn cultivation would be 2 million acres or 2 percent lower than the U.S Department of Agriculture's estimate for May's supply-demand balance report, with an average yield of 158.2 bushels per acre, and the U.S Department of Agriculture's May supply-demand balance report estimated corn cultivation this year and yieldlevels at 97.3 million and 158 bushels per acre, respectively In addition, analysts expect U.S farmers to switch to soybeans, which can be sown in June and have a yield potential that can be maintained even with a shorter season b3M
Therefore, in general, there are three points of general concern in the market for the delay in the planting of new-season corn in the United States: b3M first, the actual planting area ; b3M
The third point is closely related to the first point, which we will analyze together in the following b3M
First, let's analyze the increase or decrease in the actual area of cultivation b3M
The U.S Department of Agriculture issues a crop planting intent report at the end of March each year, which leads to estimates of new planting areas for the year by surveying growers about their planting intentions According to this year's Planting Intent Report, the new season corn is estimated to be 97.3 million acres, the largest corn cultivation in U.S history But good expectations are often broken by the harsh reality The delay in planting time has led to concerns and doubts about the completion of the planting area From the current situation, this year's corn actual planting area is less than expected area is more likely, but the author's analysis will not significantly reduce, the actual planting area may be less than expected area of 1 million acres or less b3M
The chart below shows the basic time of planting corn each year in the United States since the U.S Department of Agriculture recorded it As can be seen from the chart below, U.S corn seeding is usually almost complete by the end of May In addition to 2009, the delay until June to complete the planting of the year, the actual area of corn cultivation in that year has been reduced to varying degrees, the largest reduction is in 1995, when the corn seeding was basically completed on June 18, the actual planting surface reduced by 3.82 million mu than expected Both the start of sowing time and the completion of sowing were similar to this year's 2011, when the actual area under cultivation was only 264,000 mu less than expected b3M
B3M b3M above is only an analytical forecast based on the completion time of the previous year and similar weather conditions Often, if corn sowing is significantly delayed, growers have three options: to continue growing corn, which risks a reduction in eventual planting and a decline in yields; Regardless of the choices that growers make, expected returns should be the most fundamental factor In recent years, global corn prices have risen steadily, and corn cultivation has become increasingly popular with growers, and last year, as a result of a rare and extreme drought, it hit corn production that year and pushed corn prices to record highs In pursuit of high yields, U.S growers have shown a strong enthusiasm for corn crops, as evidenced by this year's continued surge in the area of planting intention Therefore, if it is not to reach the point where the planting period is too long to continue to grow corn, growers are expected to choose to continue to grow corn b3M
Second, make a look ahead to the production outlook b3M
"Due to the delay in planting periods, whatever choice sourcing growers are exposed to the risk of a reduction in the actual area under cultivation of maize than expected, this does not lead to a corresponding reduction in final yields and yields." Although the U.S Department of Agriculture's latest report shows that the U.S corn growth rate for the week ended June 2 was 63 percent, the same as in 2008 and the lowest level since 2002, factors that affect final yields and yields will be critical to the long-term weather conditions, and it now appears that the abundant moisture from spring rainfall will accelerate the growth of sown crops If the long-term weather conditions for late-stage corn production continue to be good, U.S corn production is still likely to increase this year, provided that extreme weather conditions like last year do not recur b3M
(Zhang Lei)