Analysis of the economic operation of the shipbuilding industry in the first half of 2020.

The outbreak of new crown pneumonia in 2020 has a great impact on the normal operation of the social economy of various countries and has brought unprecedented impact to China's shipbuilding industry.
the deployment requirements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on the overall promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, shipbuilding industry enterprises have actively promoted the resumption of work and production, and strived to overcome the adverse effects of the epidemic.
In the first half of the year, the overall economic operation of the industry remained stable, the volume of new ship orders increased slightly, the decline in shipbuilding completion narrowed, the three major indicators of international market share continued to lead, but the industry's main economic indicators fell sharply "ship difficult" "difficult to take orders" "difficult to profit" and other issues more prominent, the shipbuilding industry to maintain a stable and healthy development is facing great challenges.
, the basic situation of economic operation (i) the three major shipbuilding indicators change in a reasonable range in the first half of the year, the completion of 17.58 million load tons of shipbuilding nationwide, down 10.6% YoY, 10 percentage points narrower than the decline in May.
orders for new ships by 12.47 million tons, up 3.4% year-on-year.
end of June, orders for hand-held vessels were 76.54 million tonnes, down 6.3 per cent year-on-year.
ships accounted for 93.6%, 92.0% and 92.0% of the country's shipbuilding completions, new orders and hand-held orders, respectively.
(2) Enterprise revenue growth profit decreased in the first half of the year, 1020 shipbuilding industry enterprises above the national scale, achieving the main business income of 197.25 billion yuan, an increase of 1.9% year-on-year.
, shipbuilding enterprises were 136.83 billion yuan, down 2.6% YoY; ship equipment manufacturing enterprises were 24.18 billion yuan, up 11.3% YoY; ship repair enterprises were 14.15 billion yuan, up 32.5% YoY; ship dismantling enterprises were 2.74 billion yuan, down 28% YoY; and marine engineering equipment manufacturing enterprises were 17.14 billion yuan, up 18% YoY.
first half of this year, the total profits of ship-industrial enterprises above the scale amounted to 3.40 billion yuan, down 34.8% YoY.
among them, shipbuilding enterprises amounted to 1.83 billion yuan, down 61.2% YoY, ship equipment manufacturing enterprises 1.01 billion yuan, up 29.2% YoY, ship repair enterprises 680 million yuan, up 111.9% YoY, ship dismantling enterprises 0.4 billion yuan, down 83% YoY, and marine engineering equipment manufacturing enterprises lost 300 million yuan.
(3) The amount of ship exports decreased significantly from January to May, and the value of China's ship exports was US$8.5 billion, down 11.8% YoY.
of china's exports, bulk, oil and container ships dominated, with total exports amounting to US$3.89 billion, accounting for 45.8 per cent of total exports.
ship products to 195 countries and regions, mainly in Asia.
china's exports to Asia, Europe and Africa amounted to US$ 5.05 billion, US$1.25 billion and US$750 million, respectively.
II, the characteristics of economic operation (1) do a good job of normal outbreak prevention and control, orderly promote the resumption of production in the first half of the year, ship enterprises to promote the normal outbreak prevention and control and production and operation work, do more to deal with the difficulties and blocking points of resumption of production.
end of April, the production rate of the shipping industry has reached 98%, and the production order has basically returned to normal.
Ship enterprises strive to overcome the difficulties of the flow of foreign personnel, the use of digital means, flexible "cloud signing", "cloud delivery", "cloud release" and other ways to fully explore the market, to ensure the delivery of ships, competition for orders, and achieved good results.
China Shipping Group Co., Ltd. and Qatar Petroleum Corporation in Beijing, Shanghai and Doha, Qatar, jointly signed a "cloud contract" for the construction of liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessels, with a total order value of more than 20 billion yuan; Ship Heavy Industries and other shipyards through the network video link to achieve the completion of the ship "cloud delivery", Shanghai Zhongship Mitsui Shipbuilding Diesel Engine Co., Ltd. built the world's largest marine dual-fuel low-speed aircraft WinGD X92DF in Beijing, Shanghai, Marseille, Paris and Winterthur five by video link to the global "cloud release."
Wuhan ship machine actively fight in the first line of anti-epidemic, orderly promotion of enterprise resumption of production, as of the end of June, a total of 75 sets of ship-powered mechanical and electrical equipment, basically meet the key shipping enterprises supporting the urgent need.
(2) The industry is running smoothly overall, the international market share remains ahead of the first half of the year, China's shipping enterprises strive to overcome the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the industry, adhere to the principle of unchanged tasks, objectives, race against time to refuel dry, and strive to recover the losses caused by the epidemic.
In the overall downturn in the global shipbuilding market, China's international market share remains the leading, shipbuilding completion, new orders and hand-held orders in the global market share by load tons of 37.2%, 67.5% and 48.2%, respectively;
The trend of new orders to the dominant enterprises is obvious, the top 10 enterprises accounted for 80.0% of the country's total new orders, an increase of 5.2 percentage points over 2019, a total of 8 enterprises into the world's top 10 new orders.
(3) Financial institutions to help ensure the stable operation of the industry in the first half of the year, domestic financial institutions in the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia in the difficult period, through the rapid issue of guarantees, increase credit support, reduce financing costs, signed construction contracts and other ways to effectively support the resumption of production of shipbuilding enterprises, in order to stabilize China's shipbuilding industry development, to boost the confidence of shipping enterprises into a strong impetus.
The Export-Import Bank of China, the China Development Bank and so on, during the epidemic, the ship enterprises to do not draw loans, continuous loans, do not press loans, strengthen the docking of key enterprises, speed up the issuance of guarantees and loans.
Guoyin Financial Leasing Co., Ltd., BOC Financial Leasing Co., Ltd., China Merchants Financial Leasing Co., Ltd., Pudong Bank Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. and other financial leasing institutions placed orders in domestic shipyards in the first half of the year about 4 million load tons, accounting for 32% of all orders.
(4) Solidly promote lean management, do more to reduce costs China Shipping Group solidly promote cost engineering, focus on promoting the sea and supporting enterprise procurement costs, outsourcing of external co-operation fees and labor costs three cost control and management, strengthen the various types of unit cost control and cost management system construction.
China Merchants Bureau Industrial Group will be resource synergy into the "quality improvement project" focus of the scope of work, through the internal allocation of idle equipment, reduce fixed asset investment, external rental and sale of part of the equipment, inventory assets, increased cash income.
COSCO Shipping Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. continued to promote its enterprises to Nantong Kawasaki benchmark learning, Yangzhou COSCO Shipping Heavy Industries through improved management and technical transformation of the shipbuilding cycle shortened by an average of 20 days.
Overseas Takahashi Shipbuilding has completed the large bulk cargo ship double-layer bottom structure form / bottom edge cabin strong frame opening form optimization, loading and other 5 design cost improvement projects cumulative weight loss of 1085 tons.
(v) Strengthen industrial chain cooperation, actively explore the domestic market in the first half of the year, the central enterprise group actively respond to the new challenges of the epidemic changes, around the new national energy security strategy, promote energy trade, transportation, equipment manufacturing industry chain upstream and downstream in-depth cooperation.
China Shipping Group Co., Ltd. has signed orders for three 174,000-square-meter liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessels and two new generation energy-efficient and environmentally friendly super-large tankers (VLCC) with China Ocean Shipping Group Co., Ltd. and China Merchants Bureau Energy Transportation Co., Ltd., respectively.
Cosco Shipping Special Transportation Co., Ltd. signed an order for 8 pulp carriers in Dalian COSCO Shipping Heavy Industry Co., Ltd.
ship enterprises actively respond to the call to accelerate the domestic and international double cycle to promote each other's new development pattern, in the case of a sharp decline in international demand, dig deep into the domestic market customer demand, and vigorously explore the domestic market.
National Ocean Shipbuilding Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Xinyangzi Shipbuilding Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Xinzhou Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. and other shipyards and domestic shipowners signed a number of Jianghai direct bulk carriers, green environmental protection and energy-saving regional container ship orders.
3. Problems in the economic operation (i) Continuous production of enterprises is facing severe challenges in the first half of the year, due to the impact of the global epidemic superimposed economic downturn expectations, the short-term investment psychology of shipowners was seriously affected, the international shipbuilding market pessimistic atmosphere filled, new ship transactions and inquiries significantly reduced.
china's new ship orders by load tons of less than 13 million load tons, especially since the second quarter, showing a month-by-month decline in the trend.
china's shipping enterprises continued to decline in hand-held orders, the 1st since the financial crisis.
Ship enterprise production guarantee factor (hand-held order volume / average completion in the last three years) is about 2.19 years, but due to the generally low completion volume of shipyards in recent years, in fact, most shipping enterprises' production guarantee factor is less than 2 years, production task arrangements can only be maintained until 2021, 2022 ship platform (dock) vacancy rate increased significantly, some shipping enterprises started ships seriously inadequate, enterprise continuous production is facing serious challenges.
(2) The difficulty of entry of foreign personnel has not yet eased in the first half of the year, the domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled, the situation of the continued spread of foreign outbreaks, domestic ship repair enterprises concentrated on reflecting that due to the restrictions on the entry of foreign shipowners, crews, service engineers, resulting in some ship test and delivery work was forced to stop, directly affecting export ship delivery and foreign ship repair.
preliminary statistics, the main ship repair enterprises in the near future urgent need to handle the entry of foreign personnel involved in 48 countries (regions) up to more than 1400 people.
Although the issue has attracted national attention and relevant regulations, but according to the situation in the past three months, in the actual implementation still faces many difficulties, despite the coordination of many parties and enterprises actively strive, progress is still quite slow, the proportion of foreign nationals who have been issued entry visas is very low.
, under the influence of national epidemic control, foreign nationals who have obtained visas are unable to come to China on time due to the shortage of international flights.
problem of foreign nationals entering the country has become the biggest obstacle to the steady development of the shipping industry.
the difficult problem of profitability is more prominent on the one hand, the demand for new ships has dropped significantly, and the price of new ships has continued to fall.
the Clarkson New Ship Price Index has been at an all-time low in recent years, affected by the outbreak, the new ship price index at the end of June from the beginning of the year fell another 3 percentage points.
other hand, the outbreak caused by engineering delays and poor logistics transport caused high raw material prices, the procurement of epidemic prevention materials, etc. have further increased the additional costs of enterprises.
addition, many places in southern China have been hit by floods and flash floods caused by heavy rainfall, which have caused serious losses to the normal production and operation of ship enterprises along rivers and rivers in Jiangxi, Anhui, Hubei and Hunan.
statistics show that in the first half of the year, the total profits of ship industry enterprises above the scale reached 3.40 billion yuan, down 34.8% YoY.
(4) The production of shipping enterprises has been disrupted, and the shipwreck problem highlights the serious restrictions on the supply of materials, technical cooperation and business exchanges in the global shipbuilding industry due to the continuing deterioration of overseas outbreaks.
international supporting equipment and spare parts due to the epidemic is facing the problem of downtime, shutdown or unable to supply in time, resulting in the production progress of ships under construction has been seriously affected.
In addition, the international shipping market, especially the container ship market, continued to be depressed, shipowners' cash flow and financing capacity were affected to varying degrees, coupled with a sharp decline in international cargo volume, some shipowners' willingness to pick up the ship decreased, to the shipyard to apply for the number of days of force majeing, clearly proposed to delay the pick-up.
the end of June, according to sampling statistics, 50 key monitoring enterprises delay delivery rate of about 20%, ship enterprises shipwreck problem highlighted.
, the second half of the trend and the full-year market forecast for the outbreak of new crown pneumonia in early 2020, making the global new shipbuilding market already in a downward cycle worse.
the International Monetary Fund's latest forecast for global economic growth to fall to -4.9 per cent this year, and Clarkson expects global maritime trade to contract by more than 5 per cent.
Before the new crown epidemic is effectively controlled in the world, the new shipbuilding market is difficult to recover due to the overall environmental impact, with global new ship turnover expected to be 30 to 40 million load tons by 2020;
In the first half of the year, although domestic shipowner orders strongly supported the stability of China's new ship orders, but China's shipbuilding industry is an export-oriented industry, international shipowners orders, especially mainstream shipowner orders accounted for more than 60% of China's hand-held ship orders.
present, the new crown epidemic disrupted the original world trade pattern, global economic growth uncertainty increased significantly, shipowners investment confidence is seriously insufficient, the second half of the year is still difficult to make significant changes.
expects China's new order volume to be about 22 million load tons, shipbuilding completion volume of about 35 million load tons, the end of the hand-held order volume fell to about 70 million load tons.
From the point of view of the sub-ship market, China's epidemic prevention and control has achieved remarkable results, economic recovery continues to improve, domestic demand for energy, minerals, grain and other imports has steadily rebounded, bulk cargo ships, oil tankers, gas ships and other new shipbuilding market opportunities to be found.
At the same time, the global spread of the new crown epidemic is also accelerating the transformation of traditional trade models, intelligent shipping, regional trade, domestic logistics will become a new bright spot, intelligent ships, regional ships, inland ships and other development ushered in a new opportunity.
, however, due to the overall global trade situation, the contradiction between supply and demand for shipbuilding is difficult to improve, and the living environment of shipbuilders is likely to deteriorate further.
5. Relevant recommendations (1) To ensure that the state supports the implementation of the epidemic prevention and control tax preferential policies in place since the outbreak occurred, in order to reduce the impact of the epidemic on the real economy, the state has intensively introduced a variety of epidemic prevention and control tax preferential support policies, including support for enterprise financing, tax relief, return of social security and other epidemic prevention and control preferential support policies, local governments have also issued a series of policies during the epidemic.
relevant departments to ensure that the state supports the implementation of the epidemic prevention and control tax preferential policies.
industry associations and other institutions should step up publicity efforts, so that enterprises in the shipbuilding industry to support the policy of full understanding.
(2) Financial institutions, because of their policies to help high-quality enterprises tide over difficulties, suggest that domestic financial institutions should extend support to loans of high-quality shipping enterprises that are indeed difficult to repay credit due as a result of the epidemic.
make sure the boat.