Analysis on the development and market concentration of China's pharmaceutical industry in 2016

Source: China Industrial Information 2016-07-12 the proportion of people over 60 years old in China is expected to reach 28% in 2040, and there is still a huge room for growth Elderly people over the age of six are the main force of medical demand The incidence rate of chronic diseases such as malignant tumor, diabetes, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases is rising rapidly The demand for new generation of curative effect with better side effects and smaller therapeutic schemes is very urgent, and it drives industrial innovation From the international comparative experience, it is in the stage of accelerated aging of population, and the proportion of total health expenditure GDP will continue to increase China's medical product supply chain is facing an overall improvement in quality standards: 1) the standards for the review and approval of drugs and medical devices are in line with the highest standards in Europe and the United States, and innovative drugs and products in urgent need of the market are expected to obtain accelerated approval; 2) it is imperative to re evaluate the consistency of generic drugs, and promote the rapid improvement of the quality of drugs already on the market; 3) the gradual implementation of the "two vote system" and the "business to value-added system" The second wave of rapid improvement of concentration in the pharmaceutical circulation industry is coming In the next few years, the quality standards of medical products supply end will be improved in an all-round way, and only the strong innovative enterprises will remain strong Driven by traditional Chinese medicine injections, auxiliary drugs, antibiotics and other varieties, China's pharmaceutical industry, after nearly 10 years of rapid growth, the current growth rate of the domestic pharmaceutical industry gradually began to show a downward trend, many investors have doubts about the development prospects of the medical industry Is China's medical industry really saturated? We believe that there is no substantial change in the domestic medical environment China has a large number of consumers, corresponding to a large number of clinical subjects China has a globally competitive manufacturing technology and low cost of intermediates and APIs With the improvement of the strength of Chinese enterprises, China will create in the future manufacturing in China, and we are firmly optimistic about the development prospect of the industry China's terminal drug sales: the proportion of China's medical expenditure in GDP, per capita health expenditure, doctor density, number of beds, etc in China's terminal market drug sales are lagging behind those in medium-sized developed countries, with a large space for improvement The proportion of medical and health expenses in GDP in some countries the demand of medical and health expenses per capita in some countries can be divided into: ① rigid demand and elastic demand; and according to types, it can be divided into: ② demand for medical products and medical services The rigid demand of medicine refers to the medical security to meet the basic treatment of most of the people The rigid demand is not immutable, but closely related to the changes of population structure and disease spectrum In China, the aging of population and the increase of obesity will drive the increase of rigid demand for medicine By 2040, the proportion of the population over 60 years old is expected to reach 28% The average annual medical expenditure of the elderly over 65 years old is three times of that of the young people The demand for medical resources in the aging society is huge With the development of economy and the acceleration of the pace of life, China and the world will face the problem that the burden of chronic diseases is increasing gradually At present, there are more than 260 million chronic diseases in China The main social determinants of chronic diseases include industrialization, urbanization and aging In addition to the rigid drug demand caused by the aging population and the migration of disease spectrum, with the improvement of national income level and the change of consumption concept, people are pursuing high-end drugs and innovative technologies with better efficacy and less side effects, which we define as the elastic demand for medicine The most representative fields are antibody bio medicine, precision medicine, Internet medicine, etc Prediction of the scale of precision medical market the amount of global internet medical investment the number of pharmaceutical enterprises in China is too large and the concentration of pharmaceutical industry is still low in 2015, the number of pharmaceutical enterprises in China reached 7, 116, but the scale is small In 2005, the market concentration of the top 100 domestic industrial enterprises was 36%, and in 2013, the market concentration increased to 45% However, compared with the concentration of more than 80% of the top 100 global pharmaceutical enterprises, the market is still relatively scattered The proportion of domestic and foreign pharmaceutical manufacturing income in China's domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing profit proportion of domestic pharmaceutical enterprises in the domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing industry keeps increasing, reaching 76% level in 2012, stable near this proportion in 2014, and generic drugs have reached the limit In 2014, domestic pharmaceutical enterprises accounted for 75% of the net profit, and many low-quality and high-price generic drugs "bad money drives out good money" became beneficiaries.