Analysis on the import and export situation of domestic corn market in the near future

Introduction: in the early stage, the overall market price of domestic corn was in the decline channel under the influence of factors such as the reduction of railway freight and the holding of regional grain auction Recently, the price of corn in China has stabilized after market relocation At present, although many factors restrain the seasonal recovery of corn market price, with the coming of another consumption peak, the recovery of corn price is expected to strengthen In this paper, the author analyzes the current situation of China's corn import and export as follows: first, although the import quota has been issued, the market impact will not be too great In the near future, the State Planning Commission has issued a total of 1672000 tons of corn import quota for this year to domestic private companies, and a total of 255 feed and breeding enterprises have been granted corn import quota With the issuance of import quotas, the market's psychological expectation for the increase of corn imports in the later period also increased significantly However, the author believes that the distribution of quotas will not cause substantial pressure on the domestic corn market, which is mainly based on the following considerations: (1) from the perspective of the distribution of quotas, the distribution of quotas is relatively uneven Each company gets quotas ranging from 50000 tons to 60000 tons, 60000 tons is enough to fill a Panamax cargo ship However, most enterprises get quotas less than 50000 tons, which will face the difficulty of not being able to import a single ship of corn Industry insiders predict that many companies will mix quotas together so that they can order cargo ships, which increases the actual import difficulty, while the situation of holding import quotas but being difficult to import is expected to increase (2) the price of imported corn is not dominant, and the domestic corn has strong competitiveness Take northeast and North China for example At present, when the price of corn in the real estate is 960-1090 yuan / ton, compared with the CNF price of corn imported from the United States and South America is 107 dollars / ton, equivalent to 1100 yuan / ton Companies in the above regions with quotas are not interested in importing corn at present because the local supply of corn is sufficient and their prices are expected to regain competitiveness It is preliminarily predicted that enterprises in the northeast and North China that have obtained quotas are not optimistic about the use of quotas, but this has relatively reduced the impact of imported corn on the domestic market (3) the domestic policy restricts the import of corn, and the quota corn is difficult to operate smoothly Due to China's strict restrictions on the import of genetically modified corn, although the government has issued quotas, the import quotas in the hands of traders are difficult to translate into actual imports According to media reports, some traders believe that China is unlikely to start importing corn before June even if foreign suppliers submit applications for interim certification by the end of April After July, China's interest in imported corn will be much less than before, due to the fact that it is close to China's corn harvest in September According to the estimation of relevant organizations, the import quantity of corn in 2001 / 02 will be less than 1 million tons However, due to the estimated output of corn in 2001 / 02 reaching 115.4 million tons, the proportion of import quantity in the new supply is less than 1%, so the import of corn will not have a significant impact on the domestic corn 2 The competitive advantage of export remains the same, and the role of market promotion remains (1) zero tax rate is applied to export value-added tax, and the market power is enhanced Recently, with the approval of the State Council, China has implemented zero tax rate for the export of rice, wheat and other grain value-added taxes, including corn It is reported that the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of taxation have issued relevant notices for this purpose The circular specifies the scope of commodities and tax code of rice, wheat and corn with zero VAT rate The specific export tax rebate rate shall be issued separately after adjustment by the State Administration of taxation For the export of the above-mentioned goods with zero tax rate, the output tax shall be exempted at the time of export The refundable tax shall be calculated according to the following formula: refundable tax = tax price of export goods × 13%, tax price of export goods = purchase price of this batch of export goods calculated and determined according to the enterprise cost accounting method The specific tax price shall be checked by the tax authority in charge of export tax refund in the host of the export enterprise according to the enterprise cost The calculation method is determined by calculation It can be seen from the notice that the decrease of export value-added tax enhances the export competitiveness of corn and other food varieties, and provides policy guidance for the further expansion of corn export quantity (2) the export share of corn is still the same The main buyers of China's corn are South Korea, Malaysia and Japan With China's accession to the WTO, the export volume of China's corn is expected to decline, but under the protection of national policies, China's share of international trade in corn is expected to continue to maintain This is mainly because China's corn export has a unique advantage First of all, price is the edge of market competition Due to the zero tax rate of export value-added tax and the reduction of railway transportation expenses, the sales cost of domestic corn market has been reduced, and the price advantage of China's corn has been reflected Secondly, flexible transportation is the magic weapon For a long time, China's corn has won the preference of many Asian island countries by its flexible transportation mode and small quantity of shipment Thirdly, geographical advantage is geographical advantage The geographical location of the main corn buyers in China is adjacent to each other Compared with the corn in the United States and Argentina, the transportation time of corn in China is shorter For the merchants, time is money The length of time means the trade risk, which is unmatched by other corn exporting countries in the world In addition, the water content of corn in China is relatively low, and the yellow pigment is relatively high, which is generally welcomed by import traders According to the data of the Overseas Agricultural Bureau of the U.S Department of agriculture, as of the first ten days of April, South Korea has directly or indirectly purchased 1022000 tons of Chinese corn delivered in April September 2002, which shows that China's export advantage still exists The advantages of China's corn in price, transportation, region and quality will become the main basis for China's corn export and international market share in the later period Above all, although the import quota has been issued, it is difficult to operate, and the impact on the domestic corn market will not be too strong Under the support of national policies and the unique advantages of the domestic corn market, China's corn export form is still optimistic, and the promotion effect on the domestic corn price still exists, which can relatively offset many adverse factors of the domestic corn market at this stage At present, the market price is not likely to fluctuate strongly, and it is expected that corn prices will maintain a stable upward trend in the near future.