Analysis on the influence of American new agricultural act on international soybean market

Introduction: after the marathon talks, the negotiators of the Agricultural Committee of the two houses of Congress finally reached an agreement on the key issues of the agricultural bill on April 28, and on May 2, the house of representatives of the United States overwhelmingly passed the new agricultural bill by 280 votes to 141 votes The main content of the new law is: in the next 10 years, the U.S government's appropriation for agriculture will reach 180 billion US dollars, among which the intensity of agricultural subsidies will be greatly enhanced, which is 70% higher than that provided by the 1996 agricultural law In terms of the crop loan subsidy rate, which has a great influence on the soybean market, the new agricultural law reduces the loan subsidy rate of soybean from the current $5.26/bushel to $5.00/bushel, with a decrease rate of $0.26/bushel On the contrary, it increases the loan subsidy rate of corn, the main competitor of soybean, from $1.89/bushel to $1.98/ Bushel (2002-2003), increased by 0.09 USD / bushel; then in 2004-2007, the loan subsidy rate of corn was lowered to 1.95 USD / bushel, adjusted by 0.06 USD / bushel If only from the perspective of corn and soybean loan interest rate of the new agricultural law, the intention is obvious, to stimulate the expansion of corn planting area and reduce soybean planting area From the initial market reflection, it is also generally expected that corn planting area will rise and soybean planting area will shrink This kind of influence has long-term positive characteristics for CBOT soybean market Otherwise, CBOT soybean contract in July will not rise from 456 to 480 all the way in mid April, and November and other forward contracts will not rise as high as 16 cents on April 16 and 17 Of course, it still needs time to test this kind of favorable influence Although the new agricultural bill has been passed in the house of representatives with the joint efforts of the agricultural committees of the two houses of Congress, it still needs to be voted by the Senate on Wednesday and signed by President Bush before it can enter into force Although Bush said he would sign the law before the house of Representatives voted, but after all, according to the current situation of spring sowing in the United States, corn planting has been more than half of the time If it is not affected by the humid weather this spring, the corn planting progress should reach about 60% Soybean planting also reached 6% The impact of the new agricultural act on the crop planting and the guiding area adjustment of farmers in 2002 has been greatly weakened, and 2002 is the alternation period of the new and old act, the large-area corn soybean planting area conversion needs time to run in At the beginning of spring sowing, the soybean price is in the rising period, the corn price is in the downturn period, and the contract in July basically hovers in the region of $200-205 This price comparison will undoubtedly further weaken the impact of the new agricultural law on the adjustment of planting intention
It should be said that the influence of the new law will be gradually reflected in 2003 and subsequent contracts This is mainly reflected in the gradual narrowing of the income return gap between corn and soybean According to the statistical data model of dilney, an agricultural economist from the University of Kansas, the net income of planting soybean is calculated by the average value according to the loan interest rate standard of the 1996 agricultural law Yi will surpass corn by $87.50 per acre, which is the key to the continuous increase of soybean area since 1997 But the new loan rate will reduce the return of soybeans relative to corn to $61.50 per acre If measured by the net return advantage of the new loan interest rate of $62 / acre, the net return advantage of soybean compared with corn will gradually decrease, and the soybean planting area will decline, which is the same as the gradual expansion of soybean planting area after the implementation of the agricultural act of 1996
At present, the adoption of the new agricultural law has little impact on the soybean market at home and abroad, but the significance of this guiding adjustment is far-reaching The introduction of this law with the guidance of soybean planting area reduction will have a long-term good support for CBOT soybean and Dalian soybean; while the world's first major soybean producing country's planting area has reached through the guidance of laws To reduce the effect of this point, for the international and domestic soybean demand and supply of the two markets will definitely have a positive psychological expectation (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: