Ascletis, Junshi, and Genting share prices collectively break out, how far can the new crown oral drug concept stocks go?

New crown oral drug concept stocks are being sought after by the market, and the momentum is far more enthusiastic than when the new crown neutralizing antibody was used before
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On January 17, Ascletis Pharmaceuticals rose 27.
8%, Guangshengtang rose 20%, Genting Xinyao rose 17.
08%, Junshi Bio’s Hong Kong stocks rose 14.
67%, A shares rose 11.
6%, Simcere Pharmaceuticals rose 13.
78%, Zhongsheng Medicine The industry rose 10.
02%
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In fact, in recent days, the stock prices of many domestic pharmaceutical companies that have deployed oral new crown drugs have generally shown a continuous upward trend
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In less than a month since Christmas last year, Geli’s share price has risen by 91.
76%, Guangshengtang has risen by 75.
81%, Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical has risen by 49.
45%, and Junshi Bio’s H shares and A shares have risen by 45.
86% and 41.
22% respectively.

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And a group of companies in the industry chain related to the concept of "New Crown Oral Drugs" rose even more fiercely
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After the market closed on January 14, Yaben Chemical, a manufacturer of oral drug intermediates for the new crown, announced that it was suspended due to abnormal fluctuations in stock trading.
In fact, the stock price of Yaben Chemical has risen by as much as 310% in the previous 20 trading cycles
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There are many companies like this
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On January 17, the share price of Tuoxin Pharmaceutical rose by 20%, and the increase in the past three trading days has reached 52.
92%
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Tuoxin Pharmaceutical, which just landed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in October 2021, has tripled its share price since its listing
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The share price of Feikai Materials, which is also a manufacturer of new crown oral drug intermediates, has also risen by 80.
39% since December 21, 2021
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Why is the concept of new crown oral medicine sought after? What is the current situation of oral drugs for the new crown in China? Is it a short-term fluctuation or a general trend in the future? 01 The sought-after "concept" The popularity of the new crown oral drug concept is not groundless
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Under the raging spread of the Omicron variant, not only the daily new crown diagnoses in the world have hit new highs, but the domestic epidemic has also appeared in multiple outbreaks.

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What this reflects is the inadequacy of the new crown epidemic prevention model, which was only built by vaccination, in the face of constantly mutating viruses
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There are continuous data showing that the ability of the new crown vaccine to prevent infection by mutant strains has dropped significantly
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Take Israel as an example of "vaccinated top students".
Not only is it the first in the world to vaccinate against COVID-19, but up to now, 78% of the population has been vaccinated with the mRNA vaccine, of which more than 4 million have been vaccinated in 3 doses, and more than 500,000 have been vaccinated.
4th dose was given
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However, since late December last year, Israel has ushered in the fifth wave of the epidemic again, and the number of newly diagnosed cases has hit a new high
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The new wave of outbreaks has made the world increasingly aware that vaccines alone are not enough
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If the vaccine cannot completely stop the spread of the virus, then the combination of "new crown vaccine + new crown treatment drug" may be the key to mankind's ultimate victory over the epidemic
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Compared with injectable antiviral drugs such as neutralizing antibodies, small-molecule oral drugs have some obvious advantages
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A research report of Huachuang Securities pointed out that in the large-scale outbreak of the new coronavirus, oral medicines are convenient to administer, convenient for medical care and patients to use, and for mild patients, they can also be taken at home by themselves.
It is the lowest social cost solution
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On the other hand, the targets of small-molecule new crown oral drugs are conservative, and compared with neutralizing antibodies, they are often still effective even against mutant viruses
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In terms of production, the production cost and price of small-molecule oral drugs are much lower than those of antibody drugs, which are easy to produce and scale up, and can be stored and transported at room temperature to achieve rapid global distribution
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In fact, looking back at the century-old history of humans fighting influenza virus, it is not difficult to find that the means to greatly reduce the impact of influenza is the "prevention + treatment" combination of "vaccine + oral specific drugs"
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The emergence of oral influenza drugs such as oseltamivir has greatly reduced the fatality rate of influenza, allowing people to maintain normal social activities by taking their own medicines and simple protection after being infected with influenza virus
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The new crown oral drug seems to show broad prospects, and the approval of two overseas oral drugs has added another fire to it
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On December 22, the US FDA officially approved the EUA application for Pfizer's new crown small molecule oral drug PAXLOVID for high-risk mild-to-moderate patients
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PAXLOVID has excellent data showing an 89% reduction in the risk of COVID-19-related hospitalization or death from any cause
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Another new crown small molecule oral drug Merck's Molnupiravir was first approved for marketing in the United Kingdom and also obtained an EUA in the United States
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Phase III clinical data showed that high-risk mild-to-moderate COVID-19 patients taking Molnupiravir had a nearly 50% reduction in the risk of hospitalization or death
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The "concept" has become an outlet, and local companies that occupy a place in R&D are naturally the ones who benefit
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02 Many entrants From the perspective of the global epidemic trend, the new crown oral drug research and development companies do have "surge" capital
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According to data from the CDC in the United States, the Omicron variant, which was first reported by South Africa in November last year, has now surpassed the Delta variant and has become the main source of new infections in the world
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Omicron has more than 30 mutations in the spike protein, which can lead to a decrease in the effect of neutralizing antibodies and vaccines, resulting in a relatively common immune escape phenomenon for currently approved new crown vaccines and neutralizing antibodies
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However, this variation has little impact on small-molecule antiviral drugs, which also draws more attention to the clinical development and industrial chain of small-molecule oral drugs
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With Merck's polymerase inhibitor Molnupiravir and Pfizer's protease inhibitor Paxlovid (Nirmatrelvir + ritonavir) both approved by the FDA for EUA, the new crown vaccine and new crown neutralizing antibody that were originally in the "stage center" are being used for new crown oral drugs" give way"
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Polymerase inhibitors and protease inhibitors are also popular targets for the current domestic research on new crown oral drugs.

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Polymerase inhibitors are nucleoside analogs that integrate into RNA chains through viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRP), preventing viral RNA replication
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From a domestic point of view, Junshi/Wangshanwangshui and real creatures are in the leading stage
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In October last year, Junshi Bio announced a cooperation with Wangshan Wangshui to jointly undertake the global clinical development and industrialization of the oral nucleoside anti-new coronavirus candidate drug VV116
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VV116 received EUA approval in Uzbekistan on December 30 last year
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VV116 was optimized from Gilead's remdesivir, retained remdesivir's antiviral activity, and was able to be administered orally
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Another nucleoside drug, Azvudine from Real Bio, a clinical candidate for HIV treatment developed by Henan Normal University, has been found to have antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2 at the animal and cellular levels
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Multiple Phase III clinical studies in China, Brazil and Russia
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Compared with polymerase inhibitors, the research and development of 3CL protease can be said to be the most "clustered" target of domestic pharmaceutical companies
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Genting Xinyao, which has introduced 3 mRNA vaccines for US$500 million, announced a few days ago that it has joined the "battle" of small molecule drug research and development.
(3CL protease) inhibitor, Genting Xinyao paid an upfront payment of $2.
5 million, a development milestone of $107 million, and a sales milestone of $15 million to $105 million
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Prior to this, many pharmaceutical companies such as Ascletis Pharma, Simcere Pharma, and Frontier Bio were already deployed.

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Ascletis' ASC11 is scheduled to be clinically reported in China and the United States in the second half of 2022; Simcere's SIM0417 has shown good antiviral activity and safety in preclinical animal models; Frontier Bio is conducting Phase I clinical trials of FB2001 in the United States Experiments to evaluate the tolerability, safety and pharmacokinetic characteristics in humans; Guangsheng Zhonglin, a subsidiary of Guangshengtang, and WuXi PharmaTech announced the joint development of oral small molecule 3CL protease inhibitors; Zhongsheng Ruichuang is also deploying in this field The research and development of broad-spectrum anti-COVID-19 oral drugs is in the preclinical development stage.
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03 Hitchhiking the "concept", but it is not only the new crown oral drug R&D companies that have skyrocketed
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At present, the new crown small molecule oral drugs are replacing vaccines and neutralizing antibodies, becoming the new "savior" to save the epidemic.
From the perspective of the secondary market, once the "new crown oral drugs" are stained, whether it is a drug research and development company or this industry chain Related companies on the list, the new crown oral drug concept stocks may have a strong daily limit, or doubled and skyrocketed
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There is an old saying that the troops and horses go first without food and forage, and market investors seem to understand this truth
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Taking advantage of the "concept" of the new crown oral drug, the stock prices of related industry chain companies rose first, and the stock price soared even more than that of R&D companies
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Whether it was on November 4 last year, when Merck/Ridgeback announced that the UK Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) had approved the listing of Molnupiravir (MK-4482, EIDD-2801) in the UK, Tuoxin Pharmaceutical stated on the interactive platform, The company's product uridine is the raw material for the production of EIDD-2801, and EIDD-2801 is the raw material for the production of the new crown oral drug Molnupiravir
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Under the layers of "linkage", Tuoxin Pharmaceutical has increased by 185% in 6 days and 5 boards.
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After the FDA successively approved the emergency authorization application (EUA) of Pfizer's new crown oral drug Paxlovid and Merck's new crown oral drug Molnupiravir, market expectations BenChem may have an indirect supply relationship with Pfizer, and as a result, its stock price rose nearly 200% from December 22 to January 14 last year.
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Even though Yaben Chemical said in two letters of concern to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, " The company is not the only domestic manufacturer with the synthesis process of caron anhydride and its derivatives, and the company has not signed any cooperation agreement with Pfizer, and has no cooperative relationship with it, and has not supplied caron anhydride and its derivatives to Pfizer.
The sales volume of caron acid anhydride and its derivative products was 17.
29 tons, generating a sales income of 27.
0073 million yuan, accounting for about 1%-2% of the company's total operating income in 2021, which is a small proportion
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" It still reached an increase of 20 trading days.
310% achievement
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Take Tuoxin Pharmaceutical, which has a cumulative increase of 185% in 6 days and 5 boards, as one of the most powerful suppliers of nucleoside (acid) series compounds in China
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It is understood that Tuoxin Pharmaceutical, established in 2001, is mainly engaged in the research and development, production and sales of nucleoside (acid) APIs and pharmaceutical intermediates
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In the domestic R&D field of nucleoside (acid) APIs and pharmaceutical intermediates, it has the advantages of early start, large scale and complete varieties, and has formed a relatively complete product chain from basic products to high-end products
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If we follow the logic of "uridine is the raw material for the production of EIDD-2801, and EIDD-2801 is the raw material for the production of the new crown oral drug Molnupiravir", the introduction of the new crown oral drug will greatly increase the demand for uridine
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"Merck expects to produce 20 million courses of Molnupiravir in 2022.
" Uridine is one of the raw materials for Molnupiravir, and its market volume is considerable
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At the same time, Tuoxin Pharmaceutical has become the only API supplier of Real Bio Azvudine.

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If the results of the follow-up study of Azvudine are satisfactory, Tuoxin Pharmaceutical will also gain broader market demand
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"The potential explosion of uridine demand in the future is the logic that the secondary market has given Tuoxin Pharmaceuticals this round of skyrocketing
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" A market analyst said to the manager of E Pharmaceuticals
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Another Essence Pharmaceutical, which once took the concept of "new crown oral medicine", has encountered a roller coaster in its share price
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Choice data shows that from December 24, 2021 to January 5, 2022, Essence Pharmaceuticals closed at the limit-up price for 8 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative increase of 114.
62%
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Shares hit a three-year high
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It is understood that Senxuan Pharmaceutical, a holding subsidiary of Essence Pharmaceuticals, produces and sells ritonavir series of pharmaceutical intermediates
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Whether there is a business relationship between the ritonavir intermediates produced by Senxuan Pharmaceuticals and Pfizer's new crown oral drugs has become the most concerned situation for investors
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Judging from the interactive platform, Essence Pharma initially did not give a direct response to whether the company has relevant cooperation with Pfizer
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On January 4, Essence Pharma clearly stated that "the subsidiary Jiangsu Senxuan's 2019 semi-annual report provides high-quality products for Gilead in the United States and is an important customer of the company
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Has the subsidiary provided ritonavir intermediates for Gilead in the United States?" Products?" The reply said, "The company's subsidiary Senxuan Pharmaceutical currently has no direct supply cooperation with Gilead
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" The next day, Essence Pharma said, "In 2019, the company's subsidiary Senxuan Pharmaceutical and Gilead have indeed cooperated.
, there is currently no cooperative supply
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" It was after Essence Pharma clearly stated that "Senxuan Pharma and Gilead have no cooperative supply relationship", Essence Pharma's stock price opened at the limit price of 12.
29 yuan per share on January 6, and the whole day fell 8.
64%
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Down again the next day
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Obviously, whether it is really the "grain and grass" of the new crown oral medicine is a key factor for investors to consider
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From the perspective of the drug development process, whether it is a polymerase inhibitor or a protease inhibitor, the domestic new crown oral drug development is mostly in the early clinical stage, and the drug development results have not been verified
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As the so-called new drug research and development is a life-and-death situation, the clinical trials of new crown oral drugs by domestic new crown drug research and development companies are in the early stage.
Is it too early to consider the commercialization and mass production of products after they are launched? Taking advantage of the new crown oral drug concept, Dongfeng has frequently harvested skyrocketing intermediates.
Does it have absolute hard power or is it suspected of hyping the concept of heat? The aforementioned analysts told the E-pharmaceutical manager that with the concept of oral medicine for the new crown, some individual stocks have doubled or continuously skyrocketed in their stock prices in the short term
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The analyst also said that we cannot deny the important role of related pharmaceutical intermediates in the industry chain in the research and development and production of new crown oral drugs, but as to whether it really has hard power or a capital-driven bubble, time will test everything
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