At the moment of the epidemic, how much do we need to pay for choosing to lie down?

Introduction: On April 1, Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiology expert of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said at the press conference of the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council that it is necessary to adhere to the dynamic clearing

Introduction: On April 1, Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiology expert of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said at the press conference of the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council that it is necessary to adhere to the dynamic clearing

It has been a month since the UK officially "lyed flat", how are the "results"? It has been a month since the UK officially "lyed flat", how are the "results"?

On February 24, 2022, the British government announced the lifting of all existing new crown restrictions in England, a behavior known as "British lying flat" in China

On February 24, 2022, the British government announced the lifting of all existing new crown restrictions in England, a behavior known as "British lying flat" in China

From March 2020 to March 2022, the two highest peaks of weekly new crown deaths occurred in April 2020 and January 2021 (Delta strain Mainly), reaching more than 9,000 people; in 2022 (mainly due to the Omicron strain), the weekly death toll from the new crown will be more than 1,000, and it will fall below 1,000 in February, which is lower than the number of deaths during the peak period of winter flu ( Figure 1)

Figure 1 Statistics of weekly deaths in the UK from March 2020 to March 2022 (Source: [1])

Figure 1 Statistics of weekly deaths in the UK from March 2020 to March 2022 (Source: [1])

Figure 2 Statistics of weekly confirmed cases in the UK from March 2020 to March 2022 (Source: [1])

Figure 2 Statistics of weekly confirmed cases in the UK from March 2020 to March 2022 (Source: [1])

By analyzing the weekly number of new crown deaths in the UK from January 2022 to March 2022, it was found that the death peak appeared on January 21, with 1,673 deaths

By analyzing the weekly number of new crown deaths in the UK from January 2022 to March 2022, it was found that the death peak appeared on January 21, with 1,673 deaths

Figure 3 Statistics of weekly deaths in the UK from January 2022 to March 2022 (Source: [1])

Figure 3 Statistics of weekly deaths in the UK from January 2022 to March 2022 (Source: [1])

Figure 4 Statistics of weekly confirmed cases in the UK from January 2022 to March 2022 (Source: [1])

Figure 4 Statistics of weekly confirmed cases in the UK from January 2022 to March 2022 (Source: [1])

On March 10, the Financial Times reported that England's new crown case fatality rate fell to 0.

On March 10, the Financial Times reported that England's new crown case fatality rate fell to 0.

Figure 5 England's new crown case fatality rate has been lower than seasonal flu (Source: British Financial News)

Figure 5 England's new crown case fatality rate has been lower than seasonal flu (Source: British Financial News)

Through the analysis of British vaccination data, it was found that about 91.

Through the analysis of British vaccination data, it was found that about 91.

Figure 6 The proportion of new crown vaccinations in the UK population aged 12 or over (Source: [1])

Figure 6 The proportion of new crown vaccinations in the UK population aged 12 or over (Source: [1])

The United Kingdom seems to be forced to choose to "lie down" due to economic pressure and insufficient epidemic prevention capabilities

The United Kingdom seems to be forced to choose to "lie down" due to economic pressure and insufficient epidemic prevention capabilities

The excess deaths are shocking, the new crown epidemic prevention measures are effective The excess deaths are shocking, the new crown epidemic prevention measures are effective

Excess deaths, the difference between the number of recorded deaths from all causes and those projected based on past trends, is a key measure of the true number of deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic

Excess deaths, the difference between the number of recorded deaths from all causes and those projected based on past trends, is a key measure of the true number of deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic

On March 10, 2022, researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation conducted a study on global excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic and published an article in The Lancet titled "Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID- 19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020–21” (Figure 7) [2]

Figure 7 Research results (Source: The Lancet)

Figure 7 Research results (Source: The Lancet)

For the study, the researchers analyzed the true number of deaths from Covid-19 in 191 countries and territories during 2020 and 2021 by searching various government websites, the World Mortality Database, the Human Mortality Database and Eurostat data
.
Through data analysis, it was found (Figure 8):

For the study, the researchers analyzed the true number of deaths from Covid-19 in 191 countries and territories during 2020 and 2021 by searching various government websites, the World Mortality Database, the Human Mortality Database and Eurostat data
.
Through data analysis, it was found (Figure 8):

1.
The excess mortality rate is estimated at 120 deaths per 100,000 people globally
.
This data means that in the two-year period from January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021, about 18.
2 million people died of new coronary pneumonia, triple the official record of 5.
9 million;

1.
The excess mortality rate is estimated at 120 deaths per 100,000 people globally
.
This data means that in the two-year period from January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021, about 18.
2 million people died of new coronary pneumonia, triple the official record of 5.
9 million;

2.
The regions with the highest excess mortality rates are Andean Latin America (512 deaths per 100,000 people), Eastern Europe (345 deaths per 100,000 people), Central Europe (316 deaths per 100,000 people), and southern sub-Saharan Africa ( 309 deaths per 100,000 people) and Central Latin America (274 deaths per 100,000 deaths); countries with lower-than-expected deaths include Iceland (100,000 deaths down 48), Australia (100,000 deaths down) 38) and Singapore (16 down 100,000 deaths), New Zealand (100,000 deaths down 9);

2.
The regions with the highest excess mortality rates are Andean Latin America (512 deaths per 100,000 people), Eastern Europe (345 deaths per 100,000 people), Central Europe (316 deaths per 100,000 people), and southern sub-Saharan Africa ( 309 deaths per 100,000 people) and Central Latin America (274 deaths per 100,000 deaths); countries with lower-than-expected deaths include Iceland (100,000 deaths down 48), Australia (100,000 deaths down) 38) and Singapore (16 down 100,000 deaths), New Zealand (100,000 deaths down 9);

3.
At the national level, due to its large population, India has an excess death toll of about 4.
1 million, accounting for 22% of the global death toll; followed by the United States and Russia with 1.
1 million, Mexico with 798,000, Brazil with 792,000, and Indonesia with 736,000 and Pakistan 664,000
.
These seven countries account for more than half of the global excess deaths;

3.
At the national level, due to its large population, India has an excess death toll of about 4.
1 million, accounting for 22% of the global death toll; followed by the United States and Russia with 1.
1 million, Mexico with 798,000, Brazil with 792,000, and Indonesia with 736,000 and Pakistan 664,000
.
These seven countries account for more than half of the global excess deaths;

4.
In terms of fighting the epidemic, New Zealand, Australia and China have adopted strict control measures, and the results are reflected in the lower excess mortality rate
.
Due to the lack of data on registration of deaths in China, we cannot make a proper estimate of excess deaths in China
.
The Economist estimates total excess deaths in India at 1.
07 million, China at 409,000, Sudan at 193,000, Mexico at 192,000, the United States at 140,000, and Peru at 140,000
.

4.
In terms of fighting the epidemic, New Zealand, Australia and China have adopted strict control measures, and the results are reflected in the lower excess mortality rate
.
Due to the lack of data on registration of deaths in China, we cannot make a proper estimate of excess deaths in China
.
The Economist estimates total excess deaths in India at 1.
07 million, China at 409,000, Sudan at 193,000, Mexico at 192,000, the United States at 140,000, and Peru at 140,000
.

Figure 8 Stacked bar chart of the regional distribution of excess deaths from 2020 to 2021 (Source: [2])

Figure 8 Stacked bar chart of the regional distribution of excess deaths from 2020 to 2021 (Source: [2])

In response to these striking data, the researchers said: "Excess death estimates are calculated over the entire study period (two years), not weekly or monthly, because lags and inconsistencies in reporting COVID-19 death data can significantly alter estimates.

"Understanding the true death toll of a pandemic is critical for effective public health decision-making, the pandemic is not over, and new dangerous virus variants may emerge at any time
.
"

In response to these striking data, the researchers said: "Excess death estimates are calculated over the entire study period (two years), not weekly or monthly, because lags and inconsistencies in reporting COVID-19 death data can significantly alter estimates.

"Understanding the true death toll of a pandemic is critical for effective public health decision-making, the pandemic is not over, and new dangerous virus variants may emerge at any time
.
"

Chinese->

Chinese-> Chinese->

Since the outbreak of the epidemic in Hong Kong, it has attracted attention both at home and abroad
.
As of March 30, 2022, statistics on the fifth wave of the epidemic in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China showed that the total population of Hong Kong was 7.
47 million, with 7,493 deaths and 719,655 confirmed cases, with an infection rate of 9.
6% and a mortality rate of 1.
04% (Figure 9)
.
From the experience of several typical cases in this round of Omicron (such as South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States), the rapid outbreak to the peak generally lasts about 3-4 weeks (Figure 10)
.

Since the outbreak of the epidemic in Hong Kong, it has attracted attention both at home and abroad
.
As of March 30, 2022, statistics on the fifth wave of the epidemic in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China showed that the total population of Hong Kong was 7.
47 million, with 7,493 deaths and 719,655 confirmed cases, with an infection rate of 9.
6% and a mortality rate of 1.
04% (Figure 9)
.
From the experience of several typical cases in this round of Omicron (such as South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States), the rapid outbreak to the peak generally lasts about 3-4 weeks (Figure 10)
.

Figure 9 The fifth wave of epidemic data in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China (Source: [3])

Figure 9 The fifth wave of epidemic data in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China (Source: [3])

Figure 10 Several typical cases of Omicron (Source: CICC)

Figure 10 Several typical cases of Omicron (Source: CICC)

Judging from the case data released by the SAR government, as of March 26, about 70% of the 6,748 patients who died in this round of the epidemic had not been vaccinated, and about 90% had not been vaccinated
.
Among those aged 60 and older who had received two or three doses, the mortality rate was about one tenth that of the unvaccinated population (Figure 11)
.
Therefore, from the experience of this round, increasing vaccination is still the best means of protection at present, and the epidemic in Hong Kong has also verified the protective efficacy of the vaccine (Table 1)
.
The Kexing vaccine is still effective in the protection of mild cases of Omicron, but the protection effect is lower than that of Fubitai; in terms of severe and death protection, there is little difference between the two, and both have high protection effects
.

Judging from the case data released by the SAR government, as of March 26, about 70% of the 6,748 patients who died in this round of the epidemic had not been vaccinated, and about 90% had not been vaccinated
.
Among those aged 60 and older who had received two or three doses, the mortality rate was about one tenth that of the unvaccinated population (Figure 11)
.
Therefore, from the experience of this round, increasing vaccination is still the best means of protection at present, and the epidemic in Hong Kong has also verified the protective efficacy of the vaccine (Table 1)
.
The Kexing vaccine is still effective in the protection of mild cases of Omicron, but the protection effect is lower than that of Fubitai; in terms of severe and death protection, there is little difference between the two, and both have high protection effects
.

Figure 11 Proportion of population vaccination in Hong Kong, China (Source: Gelonghui)

Figure 11 Proportion of population vaccination in Hong Kong, China (Source: Gelonghui)

Table 1 The protective efficacy of the new crown vaccine

Table 1 The protective efficacy of the new crown vaccine

Data source: [4] | Graphics: Biodiscovery editorial team

Data source: [4] | Graphics: Biodiscovery editorial team

Note: CoronaVac is Sinovac vaccine, BNT162b2 is mRNA vaccine Fubitai produced by Fosun and BioNTech
.

Note: CoronaVac is Sinovac vaccine, BNT162b2 is mRNA vaccine Fubitai produced by Fosun and BioNTech
.

Due to the rapid onset of the epidemic in Hong Kong, it has brought a certain impact on Hong Kong's medical resources in a short period of time
.
According to data released by the Hong Kong Hospital Authority, as of March 27, the overall inpatient bed occupancy rate in Hong Kong's public hospitals was still as high as 98%, but it has dropped from the high of 107% on March 19 (Table 2)
.

Due to the rapid onset of the epidemic in Hong Kong, it has brought a certain impact on Hong Kong's medical resources in a short period of time
.
According to data released by the Hong Kong Hospital Authority, as of March 27, the overall inpatient bed occupancy rate in Hong Kong's public hospitals was still as high as 98%, but it has dropped from the high of 107% on March 19 (Table 2)
.

Table 2 Utilization rate of hospital beds in Hong Kong SAR, China

Table 2 Utilization rate of hospital beds in Hong Kong SAR, China

Data source: Hong Kong Hospital Authority | Graphics: Bio Discovery Editorial Team

Data source: Hong Kong Hospital Authority | Graphics: Bio Discovery Editorial Team

The situation of the booster shot (third shot) in Hong Kong is not much different from that in the mainland, both of which are around 30%
.
In just three months, the infection rate of Omicron is approaching 10%, and the mortality rate exceeds 1%
.
Fortunately, Hong Kong's per capita medical resources are rich, and it has withstood the impact of this wave of epidemics
.

The situation of the booster shot (third shot) in Hong Kong is not much different from that in the mainland, both of which are around 30%
.
In just three months, the infection rate of Omicron is approaching 10%, and the mortality rate exceeds 1%
.
Fortunately, Hong Kong's per capita medical resources are rich, and it has withstood the impact of this wave of epidemics
.

Why doesn't China choose to lie flat?

Why doesn't China choose to lie flat? Why doesn't China choose to lie flat?

If Omicron is allowed to spread nationwide, according to the seventh national census data (1.
41 billion) and the 10% infection rate and 1% mortality rate in Hong Kong, the number of confirmed cases of the new crown in the country will reach 140 million
.
The national number of new crown deaths will reach 1.
41 million; if the UK's 30% infection rate and 1.
79% mortality rate are used, the national new crown confirmed cases will reach 423 million, and the national new crown deaths will reach 2.
5239 million
.
Even so, there is a premise: our medical system can withstand the impact of the outbreak, and each patient can receive medical resources similar to Hong Kong
.

If Omicron is allowed to spread nationwide, according to the seventh national census data (1.
41 billion) and the 10% infection rate and 1% mortality rate in Hong Kong, the number of confirmed cases of the new crown in the country will reach 140 million
.
The national number of new crown deaths will reach 1.
41 million; if the UK's 30% infection rate and 1.
79% mortality rate are used, the national new crown confirmed cases will reach 423 million, and the national new crown deaths will reach 2.
5239 million
.
Even so, there is a premise: our medical system can withstand the impact of the outbreak, and each patient can receive medical resources similar to Hong Kong
.

In response to the epidemic prevention and control measures that many people have questioned, Liang Wannian, the expert group leader of the National Health and Health Commission's Epidemic Response and Disposal Leading Group, said: "Think about two problems.
The first one has reduced so many infections and prevented a lot of Severe illnesses appear and even prevent death.
How can the value of human life be calculated in money? The second question, from the perspective of a country, if strict control measures are taken in a certain area, it can ensure that other areas, other The normal social and economic operation of the province, which is more efficient? I think the measures our country is taking now is to look at the science of prevention and control from a country, a nation, a broader perspective and overall situation
.
In fact, look at some countries now As the epidemic situation continues to worsen, we can see that the prevention and control policies that are too relaxed or even allow the spread of the virus will lead to the rapid spread of the epidemic and the increase in severe cases and deaths.
In particular, some elderly people with underlying diseases and susceptible groups will face severe challenges.
The risk
.
Behind the passive prevention and control policies, it is these people who have paid the price of their health and even their lives
.
”

In response to the epidemic prevention and control measures that many people have questioned, Liang Wannian, the expert group leader of the National Health and Health Commission's Epidemic Response and Disposal Leading Group, said: "Think about two problems.
The first one has reduced so many infections and prevented a lot of Severe illnesses appear and even prevent death.
How can the value of human life be calculated in money? The second question, from the perspective of a country, if strict control measures are taken in a certain area, it can ensure that other areas, other The normal social and economic operation of the province, which is more efficient? I think the measures our country is taking now is to look at the science of prevention and control from a country, a nation, a broader perspective and overall situation
.
In fact, look at some countries now As the epidemic situation continues to worsen, we can see that the prevention and control policies that are too relaxed or even allow the spread of the virus will lead to the rapid spread of the epidemic and the increase in severe cases and deaths.
In particular, some elderly people with underlying diseases and susceptible groups will face severe challenges.
The risk
.
Behind the passive prevention and control policies, it is these people who have paid the price of their health and even their lives
.
”

In China's normalized epidemic prevention and control policy, "dynamic clearing" is a key word that attracts attention
.
Many people interpret it as the goal of prevention and control is "zero infection" and no cases
.
In this regard, relevant experts said that "dynamic clearing" does not necessarily mean "zero infection", but refers to the maximum early detection, early treatment, and early disposal in the normalized prevention and control stage, and resolutely prevent the continuous spread of the epidemic in the community.
Maintain a dynamic state of epidemic control and overall safety
.
The reason for such strict prevention and control is to gain more time for vaccination, to develop more drugs to treat the new crown, to reduce the infection rate, and to reduce the severe rate and mortality rate
.
When the "cost" is what we can afford, we will choose "coexistence"
.

In China's normalized epidemic prevention and control policy, "dynamic clearing" is a key word that attracts attention
.
Many people interpret it as the goal of prevention and control is "zero infection" and no cases
.
In this regard, relevant experts said that "dynamic clearing" does not necessarily mean "zero infection", but refers to the maximum early detection, early treatment, and early disposal in the normalized prevention and control stage, and resolutely prevent the continuous spread of the epidemic in the community.
Maintain a dynamic state of epidemic control and overall safety
.
The reason for such strict prevention and control is to gain more time for vaccination, to develop more drugs to treat the new crown, to reduce the infection rate, and to reduce the severe rate and mortality rate
.
When the "cost" is what we can afford, we will choose "coexistence"
.

Source of the title map: China Daily, only for academic exchanges
.

Source of the title map: China Daily, only for academic exchanges
.

[1] https://coronavirus.
data.
gov.
uk/details/deaths

[1] https://coronavirus.
data.
gov.
uk/details/deaths

[2]COVID-19 Excess Mortality Collaborators.
Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-relatedmortality, 2020-21.
Lancet.
2022 Mar 10: S0140-6736(21)02796-3.
doi: 10.
1016/S0140-6736(21)02796-3.
Epub ahead of print.
PMID: 35279232; PMCID: PMC8912932.

[2]COVID-19 Excess Mortality Collaborators.
Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-relatedmortality, 2020-21.
Lancet.
2022 Mar 10: S0140-6736(21)02796-3.
doi: 10.
1016/S0140-6736(21)02796-3.
Epub ahead of print.
PMID: 35279232; PMCID: PMC8912932.

[3] https:// https:// https:// https://

Leave a message here