Behind cnS market expansion: Roche is expected to surpass Novarovan with two products

In 2019, global sales of prescription and over-the-counter (OTC) central nervous system (CNS)-related products totaled $86 billion.
had forecast that total sales would continue to grow in 2020, but this year the sector has been one of the areas most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.
March-June 2020, the overall forecast for CNS drug sales fell by $1.4 billion due to closures and social isolation that made it difficult for patients to visit clinics.
despite the uncertainty created by the COVID-19 pandemic, analysts point out that the CNS product market will expand to $101 billion in 2022 and $131 billion by 2025 (Figure 1).
based on data from Evaluate Pharma, a pharmaceutical market analyst, this paper analyzes which products and companies will stand out behind the CNS market expansion and highlights the major recent deals in this area.
1 , Central Nervous System Market Overview, Total Sales and Forecasts for 2019-2025, broken down by subcategory.
other central nervous system products include drugs that were not in the primary classification at the time the report was generated.
Source: EvaluatePharma, July 2020 Top-selling Products In 2019, multiple sclerosis (MS) therapy has the highest market share, occupying 7 seats in the top 15 products in the CNS market, accounting for 26% of cnS product sales, driven mainly by products such as Biogen Tecfidera and Roche Ocrezab.
's oral small-molecule drug Tecfidera is the best-selling CNS product of 2019 with sales of $4.4 billion (Figure 2), while Roche's injectable monoclonal antibody (mAb) Ocrevus is now close behind, with the fastest growth expected by 2025 (up to $3.9 billion from current levels) and could steal the crown of Tecfidera sales as early as 2022.
this happens in part because of a patent battle between YanJian and Mylan, which could result in Tecfidera's patents being shortened from 2028 to expire in 2021.
' oral small-molecule drug, Gilenya, has lost patent protection and is expected to see sales plummet to $2.6 billion by 2025.
2 , Central Nervous System Products by Sales.
forecast sales for 2019 and b, forecast sales for 2025.
source: Evaluate Pharma, July 2020 Antipsychotics ranked third in the 2019 Central Nervous System Market Rankings, behind "Other Central Nervous System Drugs" with a market share of 13% (Figure 1).
predicts that the drug will remain in this position in 2022 and 2025, while Johnson and Johnson's intravenous schizophrenic drug Invega Sustenna, a long-term sales driver in the field, was approved as early as 2009.
among emerging products in this area, Acadia Pharmaceuticals' antipsychotic drug Nuplazid for Parkinson's disease is growing fastest, reaching $2.5 billion in 2025.
anti-epileptic drugs accounted for 12% of the market, ranking fourth (Figure 1).
antidepressants and psychostatures each accounted for 6% of the central nervous system market share, and ranked fifth.
but expects the two markets to rank the opposite trend over the next few years.
sales of antidepressants will rise from $5.2 billion to $8.6 billion between 2019 and 2025 (Figure 1), driven by recently approved sales of new products such as brexpiprazole.
compared with $3.2 billion in sales of psychostatic stimulants over the same period, largely because of a decline in sales of Vyvanse, Takeda's drug for attention deficit THD, which is expected to lose patent protection by 2023.
top CNS products companies in the 2019 CNS market top 10 companies, Yan Jian occupies 10% of the market share (Figure 3), has four of the top 15 best-selling products, three of which are for MS (Figure 2a).
While Yanjian will remain at its top ranking in 2022, Roche is expected to overtake Yanjian as the market leader by 2025, relying heavily on Ocrevus for MS, which is expected to have sales of $7.7 billion (Figure 2b).
Chart 3, the top companies in the central nervous system market, ranked by 2019 sales and showed the growth/rank of sales of prescription and over-the-counter drugs by 2025.
: Evaluate Pharma, Johnson and Johnson is expected to fall from second place in the market in 2019 to third place in 2025 in July 2020, although the pharmaceutical giant's overall sales will continue to grow over the same period.
is on track to take fourth place by 2025, with its spinal muscular dystrophy (SMA) gene therapy, Onasemonogene abeparvovec, approved a year ago, and ms therapy, which also targets CD20, monoclonal antibody Arzerra, submitted for approval in the US and EU in early 2020, and will compete with Ovus in the future.
2018, Pfizer has largely pulled out of in-house research and development in CNS and expects to drop from third place in the market in 2019 to fifth place in 2025, with Lyrica (pregabalin; $2.6 billion) losing The loss in sales of the patent will be covered by an increase in sales of Vyndaqel ($3.4 billion) for the tafamidis meglumine, a tyrocytopen amyloid neuropathic treatment (Figure 2b).
recent deals in the CNS market in the central nervous system (Table 1) highlight the growing interest in gene therapy.
first, the FDA approved Zolgensma's treatment of SMA in 2019, and by February 2020, Yan Jian announced a $2.72 billion licensing agreement with Sangamo Therapeutics to develop and commercialize gene-regulating therapies based on Sangamo's zinc finger platform for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease and other neurological diseases.
deal includes $350 million in advances and milestone payments of up to $2.37 billion.
January 2019, Neurocrine Biosciences signed a similar agreement with Voyager Therapeutics, including an advance of $165 million and a milestone payment of up to $1.7 billion to develop and commercialize a range of gene therapy programs for neurodegenerative diseases, including VY-AADC for Parkinson's disease.
10 CNS licensing transactions from January 2019 to July 2020.
AVV: Adeno-related viruses.
Source: Evaluate Pharma, in July 2020, Yan Jian also signed another major transaction (Table 1), agreeing to pay an advance of $75 million and a milestone payment of up to $635 million to obtain Pfizer PF-05251749.
PF-05251749 is a candidate drug designed to improve behavior and neurological symptoms in sleep disorders by regulating circadian rhythms.
this investment has increased the diversity of investments in "failed areas" of Alzheimer's drugs.
for Alzheimer's disease, Yan Jian's amyloid protein-targeted monoantigen aducanumab is currently undergoing a rigorous investigation by the FDA.
the drug's application for the drug, which finally entered the discussion phase of the FDA advisory board last week, and according to documents released on November 6th, there are still major differences among reviewers over the assessment of aducanumab.
if the drug is eventually approved, it will have a significant impact not only on biotin, but also on the entire central nervous system.
articles: 1, Perity and Central Nervous System (PCNS) Drugs Advisory Meeting Committee November 6, 2020. 2, A view into the central system nervous disorders market