Break 9 and break 10!

 　　With the arrival of the Lidong solar term, the cold wave hits, the temperature plummets, and the consumption of pork has increased sharply.
The price of pigs once again ushered in a surge in the market.
In just three days, the price of pigs has exceeded the 8 yuan mark and has come.
Around 9 yuan
.
And the gains have intensified, showing signs of breaking through 9 to 10
.
b4B China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　At present, except for the two provinces of Heilongjiang and Jilin in the northeast, the price of pigs in other regions has risen to more than 8 yuan
.
The price of pigs in Sichuan Province and Chongqing City has risen to more than 9 yuan, which is close to 10 yuan
.
b4B China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

 b4B China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Photo by Beijing News reporter Chen Linb4B China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The increase in pig prices is beyond the industry's expectations, because in accordance with the trajectory of the past "pig cycle", under the current background, pork prices are still in a downward channel
.
So, what is the reason for this round of pork price increase? From the perspective of the fundamentals of pig farming in my country, what will happen to the price trend of pigs next?b4B China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Four major reasons have driven this round of pig prices to riseb4B China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　According to statistics, at the end of June and early October this year, the prices of live pigs and pork did bottom out and rebounded significantly
.
b4B China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　At the end of June, the price of pigs fell to 13.
76 yuan/kg and then bottomed out.
In the fourth week of July, it rebounded to 15.
93 yuan/kg and then continued to fall.
In the first week of October, the prices of live pigs and pork fell to 11.
54 yuan/kg and 21.
05 yuan respectively.
After the low level of /kg, it began to rebound.
In the third week of October, it rose to 13.
40 yuan/kg, and the price of pork rebounded to 22.
58 yuan/kg
.
b4B China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　According to Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, there are four main reasons for this round of pork price increases
.
b4B China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　First, the market has rebounded demand after the price of pigs fell to a low level
.
After the National Day, the price of pigs fell to a low level, and in some areas fell below 10 yuan/kg.
Under the market mechanism, the price of pigs has a certain rebound in demand
.
b4B China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The second is to boost the purchasing and storage of frozen pork
.
On October 10, 30,000 tons of central reserve meat was purchased and stored, and local frozen pork was also purchased and stored in many places, which significantly boosted market expectations and pig prices
.
b4B China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Third, lower pig prices stimulated a pick-up in consumption
.
The consumption of pork in the north has increased significantly, and the phenomenon of sausage sausages in Sichuan and Hubei in the south has increased.
The strong demand for large fat pigs in the market has driven the price of large pigs to be higher than standard pigs
.
At the end of September, the stock of big pigs has dropped significantly, resulting in limited supply of big pigs.
The price of big pigs is about 1 yuan/kg higher than standard pigs.
The main reason is that the production of bacon has increased the demand for big pigs
.
b4B China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Fourth, the pick-up of pig prices once again drove farmers to put pressure on the pens
.
Affected by the accelerated increase in pig prices, the breeding end has a strong mood of reluctance to sell in the later period of bullishness, and the enthusiasm for slaughter of live pigs has declined, which has led to a tightening of market supply in a short period of time
.
b4B China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Zhu Zengyong believes that the two pig price rebounds have in common that pig prices have fallen, frozen pork purchases and storage boosts, and short-term consumption support and boost.
The difference is that the consumption boost after the National Day is higher than at the end of June, and the proportion of pig stocks is obvious.
Therefore, the speed and time of the second rebound of pig prices are higher than the previous one, and short-term changes in later consumption will affect the time and space of the rebound
.
b4B China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The fundamentals of supply and demand have not changed, and price increases may be short-livedb4B China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Chen Guanghua, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that according to analysis, the main reason for the recent rebound in pork prices is consumption-driven, and the fundamentals of relatively loose market supply have not changed
.
b4B China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Judging from the situation in the first three quarters of this year, the number of pig breeding and slaughter is increasing
.
Data show that in the first three quarters, pork production increased by 38%
.
The number of live pigs for slaughter reached 491.
93 million, a year-on-year increase of 35.
9%
.
The number of live pigs was 437.
64 million, an increase of 18.
2% year-on-year.
Among them, the number of breeding sows was 44.
59 million, an increase of 16.
7%, which was a decrease of 1.
05 million from the 45.
64 million in June
.
b4B China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　From the perspective of the slaughter volume of pigs in designated slaughter enterprises above designated size, the cumulative increase from January to September increased by 60.
7% year-on-year.
The slaughter volume in May was higher than that in January, and the volume in June was more than 21 million.
The increase rate exceeded 95%
.
b4B China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　From the perspective of pork supply, the first to third quarters increased by 31%, 36%, and 34% year-on-year, respectively.
In the fourth quarter, there is still significant supply pressure on pig prices
.
The supply of newborn piglets in the fourth quarter will remain at a high level for a period of time, and the growth trend of slaughter is expected to continue into the first half of 2022
.
b4B China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　“The relative oversupply of live pigs will continue for some time
.
At present, the stock of reproductive sows in the country is still 6% more than the normal stock, and it is expected that it will not be adjusted to a reasonable level until the beginning of next year
.
” Chen Guanghua said, I hope everyone will buy more.
Pork, eat more pork, this can not only enrich the nutrition of the common people, but also ease the management difficulties of the farmers
.
b4B China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Liu Tong, the head of the Beijing Xinfa Geological Statistics Department, also said that this weekend, the price of meat has risen sharply.
The price of 24.
50 yuan/kg on November 5 increased by 22.
50% from 20.
0 yuan/kg on November 3.
"This increase is mainly driven by demand.
It is driven by large purchases and storage by some households.
The slaughter volume has not been followed up in time, resulting in a rapid increase in prices
.
" Liu Tong said, but this phenomenon is short-lived.
The price will not stay at a high price for too long.
In the case of sufficient supply of pigs, residents' enthusiasm for storage will soon cool down, and meat prices will soon return to normal
.
b4B China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry