Corn demand is not booming, market price is hard to rise

Introduction: at present, the market price of corn in domestic production and marketing areas has seen negative growth The sales area is restricted in the production area, while the production area has a negative effect on the sales area The price has shown a continuous decline trend The main reasons are as follows: 1 The supply has increased, and the price rise situation is grim The supply quantity of corn in China is organized by three parts First, the stock quantity According to the information provided by the relevant departments, China's corn inventory at the beginning of the year 2000 / 00 is 52 million tons, the current year's output is 106 million tons, and the total supply is 158 million tons After subtracting the feed, ration, seed, export and consumption of that year, the final inventory is 40.5 million tons Therefore, China's corn inventory is not new grain at present, and the annual inventory of 00 / 01 is about 40.5 million tons Secondly, the output of new grain is expected to be 106-107 million tons this year With the expected ending inventory, the total supply is 146.5 million tons Thirdly, for the rest quantity, Jilin grain group cancels the corn export contract of 1 million tons in the early stage, and the supply in the later stage will increase accordingly Two times of corn imports of 1 million tons in total will not increase the actual market supply quantity, but in the later stage, with the approaching of the shipping date, the market pressure will tend to be obvious, and two million tons in total According to the current three aspects of comprehensive statistical calculation, in the future period of China's corn supply quantity will be 148 million tons, and this supply quantity will increase with the gradual increase of the domestic corn import quantity The increase of the domestic corn supply quantity will put pressure on the market predictably, and the situation of price rise is more severe 2 The scope of acquisition is narrowed and the effect of price support is weakened
Different from the previous years, in order to make the agricultural development more reasonable and adapt to the needs of China's accession to the WTO, the corn in North China and Huanghuai region has withdrawn from the scope of protection price acquisition, while the main corn producing areas in Northeast China still need to continue to implement the protection price acquisition policy, but the protection measures have changed The protection price of corn standard products (second-class, 14 water) in Northeast China is 0.035 yuan / Jin higher than that of last year, including The price of protection in Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang Province is 0.47 yuan / Jin, 0.46 yuan / Jin and 0.455 yuan / Jin respectively The price of neighboring provinces is implemented in Inner Mongolia However, according to the new food standard, the standard water content has decreased from 18 in the past to 14 in the past, and the actual protection price level is still the same as the previous year At the same time, there are also restrictions on the protection level of corn Only corn above the third class is protected Corn below the third class is not included in the protection scope In general, the protection price this year is slightly lower than last year The most direct impact of the new corn purchase standard is the purchase market Due to early frost in most parts of Northeast China in the early autumn harvest period, the moisture content of new corn is higher and the quality is lower than last year It is learned from the local grain depot that in the early stage, it is difficult to purchase the standard products due to the high water content of the corn sold by the farmers The return phenomenon is obvious, and the number of purchases is small Although the weather condition at this stage is conducive to corn precipitation, the recent snow weather has affected the transportation of the farmers, and the increase of the number of purchases is limited At this time, because of the need of annual cash flow, the selling psychology of farmers is relatively strong On the premise that the quality is not as good as that of previous years, the purchase price has also dropped again and again It can be seen that the new autumn grain purchase policy still plays a supporting role in the price of corn, but now the support is not enough 3 Market bearish aggravation, price drop continuously First of all, the new grain market, triggered a bearish atmosphere As in previous years, the listing of new grains will inevitably lead to the increase of the market's available grain sources, and the increase of supply will lead to the downward pressure of prices, which will gradually form a bearish atmosphere in the market This is the case with the grain market Each seemingly independent factor is bound to be linked with other factors in its development The price will be affected and continue to decline, and the atmosphere will be enhanced, At the same time, the price has been suppressed again Secondly, the import and export trade, see the atmosphere aggravating In recent years, China's corn import and export trade has been a wave of ups and downs The buy back, import and re import have weakened the market's confidence in the price rise in the future The bearish air suddenly soared The enthusiasm of grain selling farmers has increased The enthusiasm of grain receiving and storage enterprises is not strong The enthusiasm of grain purchasing enterprises has decreased Three aspects of corn circulation have taken place Change, which happens to be one of the basic factors that influence the development of market price, and the price goes down Thirdly, the pressure of entering WTO is to see the air atmosphere increase After China's accession to the WTO, the first thing to be affected is the corn trade The high export subsidies will be cancelled, the export will face a crisis, and the huge import quotas will be implemented, and the import quantity will increase greatly However, on the eve of China's accession to the WTO, when the export subsidies have not been cancelled, the export has fallen into a dilemma, while the import quantity will increase twice, and the market will become more bearish, and the price will also fall Sign 4 The Spring Festival is not prosperous, so it is difficult for prices to rise
In the middle of December, there is not much time for new year's day and Spring Festival, and the demand should have increased periodically However, unlike in the past, China's real accession to the WTO this year, in order to adapt to the accession to the WTO, China's government began to gradually adjust the corn market, and dramatic changes have taken place in all aspects of the market, which also includes the purchase of enterprises Purchase intention: the inventory of the enterprise is only needed for half a month's production In the face of the increase of festival demand, the enterprise dare not purchase in large quantities The contradictory psychology of the purchasing enterprise affects the rise of market price 5 The traditional grain circulation system is unreasonable and the price promotion is limited
The traditional circulation system of corn in China is "transportation of grain from north to South", which contains many malpractice factors, the most important of which is "transportation distance" Due to the large distance between North and south, transportation is more difficult, and the increase of transportation distance is related to the increase of transportation cost, which will inevitably lead to the rise of market price When the domestic price is rising, the international price will rise From this point of view, the existing grain circulation system limits the rise of market prices It can be seen that at present, there are many factors affecting the price of corn, which are independent and interrelated, promoting the pressure on the price of corn It is expected that the price of corn in the later period will still be bearish With the approaching of the festival step by step, the demand is also expected to increase, and the price is likely to rise slightly, but the space for the increase will be limited.