Corn increase should not be overestimated

After theDragon Boat Festival, farmers' surplus grain sold out, the volume of catchment supported the northeast port corn purchase price rose slightly 10-15 yuan, futures market prices also rebounded slightly, 1309 contracts from 2420 yuan / ton to 2430 yuan / ton, 1401 contracts from 2340 yuan / ton to 2460 yuan / tonBut from the point of view of policy signals and real demand, the space above corn should not be overestimatedRZS
From a policy point of view, as of May 31, the end of the national pro-storage corn acquisition period, more than 30 million tons of pro-storage acquisition volume once let the long-term market confidence doubledBut from May to June, the price of the futures market, which is sensitive to supply and demand information, did not exceed the 2460 yuan/tonne in early AprilFrom this, it can be seen that a large number of grain sources into the pro-storage, can not be used as a simple basis for bullishnessIn fact, the pro-storage is a double-edged sword, a large number of corn into the warehouse also means that the number of later rotation increase, which is also the market has been aware of the price constraintsThis week, the country launched a five million-ton trans-provincial transfer of corn from the northeast in preparation for a possible shortage of grain in the late marketThis policy shows that under the pattern of reduced grain sources in market circulation, state regulation and control will play a role in due courseRZS
From the real market demand point of view, the deep processing industry is still not out of the lossFrom the theoretical price estimate, the Northeast region alcohol processing profit loss of 450-490 yuan / ton, starch processing profit loss of 300-370 yuan / ton, corn demand to increase the burden of the farming industryThis year, China's sow storage column has been higher than last year, due to the market to bear the loss capacity to increase, the aquaculture industry did not appear a large number of obsolete sowsAs a result, the situation of oversupply in pig storage stocks has been slow to improve High storage data seems to increase corn consumption, but because the breeding efficiency is not optimistic, the purchasing power of feed of farmers will decline, for corn consumption becomes a constraint RZS
　　From the end of May to now, Guangdong port corn inventory from 400,000 tons to 600,000 tons, port transaction price from 2460 yuan / ton down to 2430 yuan / ton, feed enterprises in their own inventory slightly replenished, the enthusiasm for corn continued to purchase is not high, volume shrinking shows that market demand is not optimistic RZS
　　To sum up, although the source of corn grain from farmers to large grain traders, inventory costs increase month by month, but the policy signal constraints and real demand is not optimistic foreshadowing that corn prices should not be overestimated RZS Dragon Boat Festival, farmers' surplus grain sold out, the volume of catch-up support edifice purchase prices in the northeast port rose slightly 10-15 yuan, futures market prices also rebounded slightly, 1309 contracts from 2420 yuan / ton to 2430 yuan / ton, 1401 contracts from 2340 yuan / ton to 2460 yuan / ton But from the point of view of policy signals and real demand, the space above corn should not be overestimated RZS
　　From a policy point of view, as of May 31, the end of the national pro-storage corn acquisition period, more than 30 million tons of pro-storage acquisition volume once let the long-term market confidence doubled But from May to June, the price of the futures market, which is sensitive to supply and demand information, did not exceed the 2460 yuan/tonne in early April From this, it can be seen that a large number of grain sources into the pro-storage, can not be used as a simple basis for bullishness In fact, the pro-storage is a double-edged sword, a large number of corn into the warehouse also means that the number of later rotation increase, which is also the market has been aware of the price constraints This week, the country launched a five million-ton trans-provincial transfer of corn from the northeast in preparation for a possible shortage of grain in the late market This policy shows that under the pattern of reduced grain sources in market circulation, state regulation and control will play a role in due course RZS
　　From the real market demand point of view, the deep processing industry is still not out of the loss From the theoretical price estimate, the Northeast region alcohol processing profit loss of 450-490 yuan / ton, starch processing profit loss of 300-370 yuan / ton, corn demand to increase the burden of the farming industry This year, China's sow storage column has been higher than last year, due to the market to bear the loss capacity to increase, the aquaculture industry did not appear a large number of obsolete sows As a result, the situation of oversupply in pig storage stocks has been slow to improve High storage data seems to increase corn consumption, but because the breeding efficiency is not optimistic, the purchasing power of feed of farmers will decline, for corn consumption becomes a constraint RZS
　　From the end of May to now, Guangdong port corn inventory from 400,000 tons to 600,000 tons, port transaction price from 2460 yuan / ton down to 2430 yuan / ton, feed enterprises in their own inventory slightly replenished, the enthusiasm for corn continued to purchase is not high, volume shrinking shows that market demand is not optimistic RZS
　　To sum up, although the source of corn grain from farmers to large grain traders, inventory costs increase month by month, but the policy signal constraints and real demand is not optimistic foreshadowing that corn prices should not be overestimated RZS