Crude oil prices continue to rise Cost shift downstream resistance

international crude oil prices have continued to rise this year, rising by more than 50% so far, and are now moving towards $70The rise in crude oil prices has begun to conduct downwards, and enterprises in the middle and lower reaches feel the pressure of rising costs, but as end demand is still relatively depressed, cost pressure continues to conduct down and face a lot of resistanceA shipping enterprise related person said that after the price of refined oil, the cost of enterprises rose, but the coastal transport market downturn, costs difficult to continue to conduct, will have a negative impact on corporate performancecrude oil is the source of the petrochemical industry chain, its price changes are bound to be transmitted downwardsThe recent increase in the price of refined oil, which for refiners, the cost of higher crude oil prices, if not all of them, can be effectively transferred downstream, to ensure a certain amount of gross marginBut for the downstream enterprises, it means that the cost of rising, such as as large oil-using large-scale transportation enterprises significantly increased costs, and transport prices are difficult to increase accordingly, the cost factor can only be digested within the enterprise, the result is a narrowing of the profit margins of enterprisesThe same is true of other enterprises in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chainA petrochemical company related to the person said that the international crude oil price slower directly brought about by the rise in costs, and these costs can be effectively transferred down depends on the affordability of downstream enterprisesFrom the current overall situation, downward transmission is facing some difficulties, mainly downstream enterprise operations are still not idealfrom the petrochemical industry chain, the closer to the upstream its price increase semost easier to conduct down, and the more downstream the transmission is more difficultThe reason is that the most upstream enterprises usually invest huge, the entry threshold is high, forming a certain competitive advantage, and even has a certain monopoly, in the competition with downstream enterprises in the sale and purchase of a dominant position, even if the downstream enterprise market conditions are not good, upstream enterprises can also be relatively easy to pass on costs downBut on the other hand, the more downstream, the fuller the market competition, the more cost transmission is determined by the upstream and downstream enterprises in the market conditions and the competitive relationship between the twoThat is, if the downstream enterprise market is active, strong demand, prices can be raised, this conduction is relatively easy, otherwise it will be difficult to achievefrom the current situation, for the end of the consumer industry such as textile and clothing, plastics, although this year has rebounded but the overall is still depressed, so the cost to downstream transmission encountered great difficultiesThis difficulty will also be "conducted" upward in the opposite directionIn the case of exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products, exports fell by 15.2% year-on-year in January-April 2009, while the year-on-year growth rate reached 26.6% in January-April 2008It can be said that from the current situation of the entire petrochemical industry chain, crude oil prices rise downward conduction more and more downstream resistance appears to be greater the underlying reason is that the consumer-goods market, which is ultimately consumer-oriented, has recovered from weak, weak demand and lower prices, as a result of the economic situation In particular, the decline in exports, one of the important forces driving China's economic development, is very obvious, so there is limited room for the relevant enterprises to absorb the rising cost of course, compared with the end of last year, the end-market has picked up this year, such as textile yarns, fabrics and products export growth in the first two months of this year fell by 20.6% year-on-year, the first four months of contraction to 15.2%, indicating that the decline in March and April narrowed significantly Therefore, since this year, a lot of chemical prices have increased, of course, the reason is not only due to cost transmission if from the listed company's first half of this year's performance considerations, price transmission in the time lag also need to be considered If you analyze the usual two-month time lag, the current corporate cost should be the price of crude oil two months ago, about $50 a barrel The current price of nearly $70 will be shown in the next two months or so At that time, if the downturn in the downstream industry does not change significantly, the performance of the middle and lower reaches will be further affected international crude oil prices have continued to rise this year, rising by more than 50% so far, and are now moving towards $70 The rise in crude oil prices has begun to conduct downwards, and enterprises in the middle and lower reaches feel the pressure of rising costs, but as end demand is still relatively depressed, cost pressure continues to conduct down and face a lot of resistance A shipping enterprise related person said that after the price of refined oil, the cost of enterprises rose, but the coastal transport market downturn, costs difficult to continue to conduct, will have a negative impact on corporate performance crude oil is the source of the petrochemical industry chain, its price changes are bound to be transmitted downwards The recent increase in the price of refined oil, which for refiners, the cost of higher crude oil prices, if not all of them, can be effectively transferred downstream, to ensure a certain amount of gross margin But for the downstream enterprises, it means that the cost of rising, such as as large oil-using large-scale transportation enterprises significantly increased costs, and transport prices are difficult to increase accordingly, the cost factor can only be digested within the enterprise, the result is a narrowing of the profit margins of enterprises The same is true of other enterprises in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain A petrochemical company related to the person said that the international crude oil price slower directly brought about by the rise in costs, and these costs can be effectively transferred down depends on the affordability of downstream enterprises From the current overall situation, downward transmission is facing some difficulties, mainly downstream enterprise operations are still not ideal from the petrochemical industry chain, the closer to the upstream its price increase semost easier to conduct down, and the more downstream the transmission is more difficult The reason is that the most upstream enterprises usually invest huge, the entry threshold is high, forming a certain competitive advantage, and even has a certain monopoly, in the competition with downstream enterprises in the sale and purchase of a dominant position, even if the downstream enterprise market conditions are not good, upstream enterprises can also be relatively easy to pass on costs down But on the other hand, the more downstream, the fuller the market competition, the more cost transmission is determined by the upstream and downstream enterprises in the market conditions and the competitive relationship between the two That is, if the downstream enterprise market is active, strong demand, prices can be raised, this conduction is relatively easy, otherwise it will be difficult to achieve from the current situation, for the end of the consumer industry such as textile and clothing, plastics, although this year has rebounded but the overall is still depressed, so the cost to downstream transmission encountered great difficulties This difficulty will also be "conducted" upward in the opposite direction In the case of exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products, exports fell by 15.2% year-on-year in January-April 2009, while the year-on-year growth rate reached 26.6% in January-April 2008 It can be said that from the current situation of the entire petrochemical industry chain, crude oil prices rise downward conduction more and more downstream resistance appears to be greater the underlying reason is that the consumer-goods market, which is ultimately consumer-oriented, has recovered from weak, weak demand and lower prices, as a result of the economic situation In particular, the decline in exports, one of the important forces driving China's economic development, is very obvious, so there is limited room for the relevant enterprises to absorb the rising cost of course, compared with the end of last year, the end-market has picked up this year, such as textile yarns, fabrics and products export growth in the first two months of this year fell by 20.6% year-on-year, the first four months of contraction to 15.2%, indicating that the decline in March and April narrowed significantly Therefore, since this year, a lot of chemical prices have increased, of course, the reason is not only due to cost transmission if from the listed company's first half of this year's performance considerations, price transmission in the time lag also need to be considered If you analyze the usual two-month time lag, the current corporate cost should be the price of crude oil two months ago, about $50 a barrel The current price of nearly $70 will be shown in the next two months or so At that time, if the downturn in the downstream industry does not change significantly, the performance of the middle and lower reaches will be further affected (name)