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    Home > Biochemistry News > Amino Acids Research > Dilemma soybean seeking a way out Strong soybean meal lead direction.

    Dilemma soybean seeking a way out Strong soybean meal lead direction.

    • Last Update: 2020-07-30
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    Introduction:

    9Kx

    , market review

    9Kx

    May, by the U.S. old soybean inventory tight impact, the outside soybean spear out of the previous narrow shock pattern, breaking through the important pressure level 1480 line rebound edifice, and show near strong and far weak trend, soybean 07 The contract rebounded as high as 1,558 points, closing 8.24 per cent or 115 cents a bushel in May, while the May 11 contract rebounded to 1,332 and may it closed 6.62 per cent or 81 cents a bushel higher. Domestic soybeans due to low downstream demand and South American soybean position pressure, failed to follow the strong rebound of the external market, maintain a narrow range of finishing pattern. Domestic soybean meal prices by the feed industry demand improved support with the outer plate bean powder all the way up. Lianbean took the 1309 contract as an example, which remained in the 4720-4860 interval. Soybean meal 1309 contract at the bottom of the 3120 line rebounded, a high of 3600 yuan / ton, and then maintained a high finishing.

    9Kx

    9Kx

    Chart 1 Co-soybean main contract price trend chart

    9Kx

    II, fundamental analysis

    9Kx

    (i) domestic market

    9Kx

    1, domestic soybean imports continued to decline

    9Kx

    according to the General Administration of Customs released data show: May imports of soybeans 595.7 80,000 tons of soybeans imported in the same period last year, a decrease of 532,000 tons compared to the same period last year, a decrease of 8.2% YoY, an increase of 1.9813 million tons, an increase of 49.83% YoY, and a decrease of 2.86 million tons of annual lying soybeans, a decrease of 2.86 million tons, compared with the same period last year. A 12.2% year-on-year decrease. According to Wind statistics, China's total soybean port inventory has gradually declined since this year, and since June, inventory has increased. China's imported soybean port inventory at the end of January was 5.1595 million tons, falling to 5.0538 million tons at the end of February, falling sharply to 3.941 million tons at the end of March and 3.7689 million tons at the end of May. Since June, due to the acceleration of soybean exports in South America and the rise in soybean meal prices, the amount of soybeans arriving in Hong Kong gradually increased, as of June 17, China's imported soybean port inventory of 4.2409 million tons.

    9Kx

    9Kx

    Figure 2 China's in and out soybean port inventory

    9Kx

    2, May since the soybean meal all the way up, to ease the loss of imported soybean pressing

    9Kx

    since the beginning of the year, due to the weak domestic oil consumption coupled with high oil inventory, so that the pressure of grease prices fell sharply, so that soybean pressure losses serious. Pressing enterprises can reduce the amount of pressing or take the production stop, increase the ex-factory price of soybean meal to alleviate the crushing loss. According to China Feed Industry Information Network, January 8 soybean crushing profit daily shows that the profit of imported soybeans is negative, of which, Dalian is -138.4 yuan / ton, Tianjin is -423.9 yuan / ton, Shandong is -69.1 yuan / ton, Jiangsu is -393.15 yuan / ton, Guangdong is -488.75 yuan / ton. From this, it can be seen that the domestic import edso pressing enterprises loss is more serious, pressing 1 ton of imported soybeans maximum loss of more than 400 yuan / ton. According to historical experience, soybean crushed profit fluctuations between positive and negative 300 yuan /ton, beyond this value can be carried out arbitrage operations. June 14 soybean press profit daily shows that Dalian is -6.65 yuan / ton, Tianjin is -44.6 yuan / ton, Shandong is -102.35 yuan / ton, Jiangsu is -125.15 yuan / ton, Guangdong is -153.2 yuan / ton. Since May, the rise in soybean meal prices has improved the losses on imported soybeans.

    9Kx

    (II) International market

    9Kx

    1, U.S. agricultural report forecast new soybean production record, weather impact uncertainty

    9Kx

    U.S. Department of Agriculture May supply and demand report, forecast U.S. soybean production will reach a record 3.39 billion bushels, an increase of 375 million bushels year-on-year. Soybean yields are expected to be 44.5 bushels per acre, an increase of 4.9 bushels/acre per year, and soybean scallean supplies are expected to be 3.53 billion bushels, an increase of 10% year-on-year.

    9Kx

    because soybean seeding is slow. The North American crop belt began springing in mid-May, but the Midwest belt was in the slowest start in years, with soybean planting the slowest in 17 years, due to this year's low and rainy weather in the northern hemisphere. The USDA Crop Growth Report shows that as of the week ended June 9, u.S. soybean seeding was still slow, with a planting rate of 71%, lagging behind the five-year average of 84%. In addition, the soybean seeding rate was 48%, also significantly behind the five-year average of 67%. Although the USDA Supply and Demand Report in May was more optimistic about soybean production for the next year, with a sharp increase in soybean single production year-on-year, late weather uncertainty has given speculation about soybean trends as soybeans have just entered sowing.

    9Kx

    based on past experience, the May USDA monthly supply and demand report is too optimistic, a substantial increase in the value of new soybean single output, mainly taking into account the unpredictability of the late market weather, for the later gradual downward adjustment to leave room for the market to do more speculation to provide a basis.

    9Kx

    2, U.S. soybean inventory slightly lower, inventory consumption ratio remained low

    9Kx

    According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture May supply and demand balance table, U.S. soybean initial inventory was 3.39 million tons, down from 461 million tons in the same period last year, carrying forward inventory was 7.22 million tons, inventory consumption ratio of 5.34 percent, although still rising 1.3 percent month-on-month

    9Kx

    3, South America 2012/13 increased production of 8.61%, soybean supply is more adequate

    9Kx

    April 18, according to the Hamburg Oil World industry journal released a report, in 2013, The five major producers in South America soybean production reached 143.6 million tons, lower than the UsDA forecast of 148.75 million tons. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's monthly report in April estimated that Brazil and Argentina's soybean production totaled 124.3 million tons in 12/13, up 8.61 percent from a year earlier. The increase in soybean production in South America guarantees the supply of soybeans from March to September. While south American soybean production limits the room for a big rise in prices, the immaturity of south American infrastructure and workers' strikes can delay the launch of soybeans, leading to a recent pattern of long-term easing of soybeans.

    9Kx

    III, technical analysis

    9Kx

    from the soybean 1401 contract line chart, soybeans are still in the 4620-4740 shock range, waiting for the news guidance. The daily moving average system sees that the length and length of the moving averages are interwoven with confusion and the center of gravity moves slightly down. The daily KD indicator forms a dead fork, the fast and slow line is located above the 50 line, looking for the support level below for a short time. Zhou K line, small Yang small yin line interweaving, shock pattern, the above important pressure 4750, the support under 4610. Soybean meal 1401 contract line chart to see, soybean meal medium-term is still in the pattern of rising, short-term shock finishing. The daily moving average system sees that the moving average is moving up, the 20-day moving average crosses the 60-day moving average and is in the trend of the long market. The daily KD indicator is located in the overbought range, forming a dead fork, in the short-term fall back finishing. Pressure 3300 line above, lower main support 3160.

    9Kx

    4, outlook and operation strategy

    9Kx

    into June-September, the United States old soybean strain, new beans in the planting period, the global soybean supply mainly depends on the South American market, the current South American soybean production has been digested by the market, if the South American market transport delays or weather affect u.S. planting and other news guidance, we think that soybeans rise more likely. Therefore, we recommend that soybeans can be a small amount of low intervention multi-orders, A1401 support area 4620-4640, break 4600 stop loss, or wait for soybean break the guidance.

    9Kx

    Introduction:

    9Kx

    , market review

    9Kx

    May, by the U.S. old soybean inventory tight impact, the outside soybean spear first out of the previous narrow swing pattern, breaking through the important pressure level 1480 line rebound editing higher, and show near strong and far weak trend, soybean The 07 contract rebounded as high as 1,558 points, closing 8.24 per cent or 115 cents a bushel higher in May, while the May 11 contract rebounded to 1,332 and may it closed 6.62 per cent or 81 cents a bushel higher. Domestic soybeans due to low downstream demand and South American soybean position pressure, failed to follow the strong rebound of the external market, maintain a narrow range of finishing pattern. Domestic soybean meal prices by the feed industry demand improved support with the outer plate bean powder all the way up. Lianbean took the 1309 contract as an example, which remained in the 4720-4860 interval. Soybean meal 1309 contract at the bottom of the 3120 line rebounded, a high of 3600 yuan / ton, and then maintained a high finishing.

    9Kx

    9Kx

    Chart 1 Co-soybean main contract price trend chart

    9Kx

    II, fundamental analysis

    9Kx

    (i) domestic market

    9Kx

    1, domestic soybean imports continued to decline

    9Kx

    according to the General Administration of Customs released data show: May imports of soybeans 595.7 80,000 tons of soybeans imported in the same period last year, a decrease of 532,000 tons compared to the same period last year, a decrease of 8.2% YoY, an increase of 1.9813 million tons, an increase of 49.83% YoY, and a decrease of 2.86 million tons of annual lying soybeans, a decrease of 2.86 million tons, compared with the same period last year. A 12.2% year-on-year decrease. According to Wind statistics, China's total soybean port inventory has gradually declined since this year, and since June, inventory has increased. China's imported soybean port inventory at the end of January was 5.1595 million tons, falling to 5.0538 million tons at the end of February, falling sharply to 3.941 million tons at the end of March and 3.7689 million tons at the end of May. Since June, due to the acceleration of soybean exports in South America and the rise in soybean meal prices, the amount of soybeans arriving in Hong Kong gradually increased, as of June 17, China's imported soybean port inventory of 4.2409 million tons.

    9Kx

    9Kx

    Figure 2 China's in and out soybean port inventory

    9Kx

    2, May since the soybean meal all the way up, to ease the loss of imported soybean pressing

    9Kx

    since the beginning of the year, due to the weak domestic oil consumption coupled with high oil inventory, so that the pressure of grease prices fell sharply, so that soybean pressure losses serious. Pressing enterprises can reduce the amount of pressing or take the production stop, increase the ex-factory price of soybean meal to alleviate the crushing loss. According to China Feed Industry Information Network, January 8 soybean crushing profit daily shows that the profit of imported soybeans is negative, of which, Dalian is -138.4 yuan / ton, Tianjin is -423.9 yuan / ton, Shandong is -69.1 yuan / ton, Jiangsu is -393.15 yuan / ton, Guangdong is -488.75 yuan / ton. From this, it can be seen that the domestic import edso pressing enterprises loss is more serious, pressing 1 ton of imported soybeans maximum loss of more than 400 yuan / ton. According to historical experience, soybean crushed profit fluctuations between positive and negative 300 yuan /ton, beyond this value can be carried out arbitrage operations. June 14 soybean press profit daily shows that Dalian is -6.65 yuan / ton, Tianjin is -44.6 yuan / ton, Shandong is -102.35 yuan / ton, Jiangsu is -125.15 yuan / ton, Guangdong is -153.2 yuan / ton. Since May, the rise in soybean meal prices has improved the losses on imported soybeans.

    9Kx

    (II) International market

    9Kx

    1, U.S. agricultural report forecast new soybean production record, weather impact uncertainty

    9Kx

    U.S. Department of Agriculture May supply and demand report, forecast U.S. soybean production will reach a record 3.39 billion bushels, an increase of 375 million bushels year-on-year. Soybean yields are expected to be 44.5 bushels per acre, an increase of 4.9 bushels/acre per year, and soybean scallean supplies are expected to be 3.53 billion bushels, an increase of 10% year-on-year.

    9Kx

    because soybean seeding is slow. The North American crop belt began springing in mid-May, but the Midwest belt was in the slowest start in years, with soybean sowing, as a result of this year's low and rainy weather in the northern hemisphere.
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