Domestic corn prices are not expected to fall in the short term

Introduction: in the near future, China's corn export situation is good The main reason is that the effect of various policies of the government to support corn export is gradually emerging, which results in the obvious price advantage of China's corn export, and the enthusiasm of corn export enterprises is greatly improved According to customs statistics, China exported 860000 tons of corn in April, and 2.96 million tons of corn from January to April, an increase of 16.3% over the same period last year, which played a very good supporting role in domestic corn prices But at the same time, in recent years, all corn producing areas in China have held grain auctions, which has greatly reduced the inventory, which has played a restraining role in the price of domestic corn, so in which way will the price of corn in China change in the later period? We can analyze from two aspects: positive and negative: first, positive factors: 1 The recent large number of domestic corn export transactions has played a very good supporting role in domestic corn prices Recently, the State Planning Commission issued a notice requesting that the subsidies for storage and transportation of exported corn should be directly transferred to the grain storage enterprises Therefore, in areas where subsidies are transferred timely, such as Inner Mongolia and Liaoning, the grain storage enterprises have a high enthusiasm for corn export, which objectively results in the decrease of corn supply in China and plays a supporting role in the domestic corn price However, in Heilongjiang and other regions where the transfer of subsidies is not timely, the export enthusiasm of grain storage enterprises is relatively low, and these enterprises are more willing to conduct domestic corn trading 2 The corn transaction price at the recent grain auction held in the corn production area has a reference effect on the domestic corn price Recently, grain auctions have been held in grain depots of corn producing areas in China, focusing on corn auctions From the perspective of Jilin's corn auction price, the transaction price is 930-950 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price is 945 yuan / ton According to this price, the closing price converted to Dalian port is 1040 yuan / ton, which is higher than the current closing price of 1020-1040 yuan / ton in Dalian Port Therefore, the falling space of domestic corn price is closed in the short term In addition, the domestic export shipment of corn will reach the level of 1 million tons in June Under the premise of such a large demand, it is unlikely that corn prices will fall 3 At present, the corn purchase price in the production area does not support the decline of corn price In the main corn producing areas in China, at present, farmers in Liaoning have almost no surplus grain in their hands, while the purchase price of corn in Heilongjiang is 0.45 yuan / jin (equivalent to 900 yuan / ton), which is a few cents / Jin higher than the previous days According to this purchase price, the closing price converted to Dalian port has reached the level of 1010 yuan / ton, which has not yet calculated the profit and operation of dealers Cost, from this point of view, there is no room for domestic corn prices to fall 4 It is difficult to import corn According to the current import price of corn in the United States, the duty paid price of imported corn has reached 1100 yuan / ton, which has no price advantage for domestic corn In March this year, although China issued corn import quota, at present, corn import can only be in the water and in the mirror, which is difficult to achieve 2 Negative factors: it is rumored that the state has recently issued the fifth batch of national grain storage and storage indicators, and the national minimum purchase price is 800 yuan / ton (14% water content) If the above rumors are true, the grain receiving and storage enterprises in the production area will certainly increase the sales of existing stocks to pour out the storage capacity to purchase new grains, which will play a restraining role in the domestic corn price Through the above analysis, we can see that, with the support of macro policies, the situation of corn sales in China has gradually improved, the enthusiasm of domestic farmers has been effectively protected, and a virtuous cycle of corn production is expected to form, so the author believes that under the current situation, the domestic corn price will not fall in the short term (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: