Domestic soybean market outlook in June

Introduction: Recently, the price of domestic soybean market tends to be flat, and the price of domestic soybean does not increase much compared with the previous period According to the statistics of national grain and oil information center, the purchase price of medium-sized oil soybean platform in Jixian, Bei'an, Qiqihar and Harbin is 2000-2030 yuan / ton, that in Siping, Jilin, 2050-2070 yuan / ton, and that in Dalian, Liaoning, 2040-2060 yuan/ Tons The price of medium oil soybean in Beijing and Tianjin is 2090-2010 yuan / ton, that in Cangzhou is 2110-2140 yuan / ton, and that in Xuchang is 2150-2170 yuan / ton In Linqing and Boxin areas of Shandong Province, the price of medium oil soybean is 2140-2160 yuan / ton, and in Jining and Taian areas of Shandong Province, it is 2150-2170 yuan / ton The market price is basically the same as that in the earlier stage Although the demand of soybean market in China is still strong, it is expected that the market price of soybean in June in China will be dominated by stable operation The specific analysis is as follows: 1 The weather in the soybean production area is appropriate At present, soybean sowing in Northeast China and Northern Shaanxi has basically ended, some areas have entered the trilobal stage, and most parts of Jiangxi Province are in the period from collateral branch formation to podding According to the statistics of the National Meteorological Bureau, 10-30mm precipitation appears in the Middle East of Northeast China and the north of Shaanxi recently, which is favorable for soybean sowing and seedling growth In the west of Northeast China, high temperature and little rain make it difficult to sow and sprout soybean Most of the light and warm water in Jiangxi is suitable for soybean flowering and podding In the later stage, the meteorological conditions in soybean producing areas will be conducive to soybean growth, forming a favorable environment for improving the per unit yield, raising the expected per unit yield, and helping to alleviate the rising basis of soybean prices for several consecutive months 2 The relationship between market supply and demand tends to be balanced Since the promulgation of the genetically modified policy in June last year, China's soybean import has been the focus of the market However, after the implementation of the genetically modified regulation on March 20 this year, the import of genetically modified soybean has been stagnant The supply of domestic soybean market is facing the crisis of tight supply, and the price of soybean has been rising Since late March, the purchase price of soybean platform in Northeast China and the soybean price in East China have been increasing The price of entering the factory has increased by 300-350 yuan / ton Whether the soybean import can be restored in the later stage has become the focus of the market According to the situation mastered by the market monitoring office of the national grain and oil information center, the demand and supply of soybean crushing in China will be balanced before the end of June In terms of supply, the actual commodity inventory of grain enterprises in Heilongjiang Province is about 500000 tons at present Before the end of June, the import volume is expected to be 600000 tons The soybean delivery into the oil plant is about 500000 tons At present, the port imports soybean inventory is about 300000 tons If excluding the crushing plant inventory, the total supply volume of oil soybean is about 1.9 million tons From the aspect of demand, in 2001, the average number of soybean squeezing was about 1.8 million tons per month According to the current situation, it is estimated that the total demand of soybean squeezing in June will be about 1.7 million tons, and the total supply and demand will be in balance, but it is only a hypothesis we made in the later period when the soybean import is smooth Once the soybean import is blocked, the domestic soybean price is still likely to rise further 3 Soybean crushing market is in deadlock Due to the huge market demand of domestic soybeans, domestic soybeans have been faced with a positive rush to buy since the beginning of listing, while the number of imported soybeans is small due to the restrictions of national policies In the case of tight supply, the price of soybeans has been rising all the way, the supply of oil plants has been tightening, and the benefits of soybean crushing have been declining At present, soybean crushing efficiency is low, and even in the face of losses, small and medium-sized crushing plants have been shut down According to traders, the actual crushing operation rate of soybean factories in Heilongjiang, Shandong and Jiangsu regions where the crushing processing capacity is relatively concentrated is less than 20% According to calculation, at present, the soybean crushing efficiency in Harbin and Linqing of Shandong is negative, even if the high price can In order to purchase to production, but in the case of negative growth of squeezing benefit, the significance of high price purchase is not great, and the enthusiasm of rush purchase will be limited under the influence of production benefit Moreover, the domestic inventory quantity is not much now, and the price continues to rise has become a piece of empty talk 4 The supply-demand relationship in the international market tends to be stable According to the data of the supply and demand report of the U.S Department of agriculture, the global soybean production in 2001 / 02 was 184130000 tons, 620000 tons lower than that of last month, and the demand also decreased by 184140000 tons Driven by the decrease of soybean import country's opening inventory, the world carry over inventory decreased by 100000 tons compared with last month, but reflected in the closing inventory of 2001 / 02, there was not much change The maintenance of global soybean supply and demand makes the power of international soybean market price rebound insufficient However, the weather conditions in American soybean producing areas are good in recent years, which is conducive to soybean planting and growth, negative news for international market and unfavorable to the continuous rise of international prices On the whole, whether in the domestic market or in the international market, the factors promoting the price of soybean market in the early stage have weakened, and it is expected that the rise of domestic soybean market in June will tend to moderate The import situation of genetically modified soybeans and the international market situation will become the main factors that determine the future market of soybeans If conditions permit, the price of soybeans is still possible to rise, but it is more likely that the stable operation will become the main tone of market development (Wang Shiliang) (author:) shared on feed Weibo to: