European wheat market: French wheat export quotations stabilize

 

On Thursday (February 10), the delivery price of first-class French wheat at the French port of Rouen was $309/ton, unchanged from a week ago
.
The price range over the past 52 weeks has been $240 to $353 a tonne
.

 

On Thursday, the price of second-class wheat in Shanghe, Argentina was 308 yuan/ton, up $1 from a week ago; the price of No.
2 hard red winter wheat in the United States was $377/ton, up $4 from a week ago; the price of No.
2 soft red winter wheat in the United States was 337 US dollars / ton, up 6 US dollars from a week ago
.

 

On Euronext in Paris, France, the most actively traded May 2022 wheat futures settled at 269 euros a ton on Friday, up 4 euros or 1.
5% from a week ago, while Chicago wheat futures rose 4.
5% over the same period
.

 

Wheat futures in Europe and the U.
S.
rose 　　as the U.
S.
president claimed that a large-scale armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine is likely to break out in the near future, sparking concerns about disruptions to Black Sea wheat exports
.
EU and US wheat exports could benefit if Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports are restricted
.

 

　　Consultant Strategic Grains this week cut its 2021/22 EU soft wheat export forecast again, in the face of tough competition from South America and the Black Sea, as well as lower forecasts for imports from Algeria and Egypt
.
The company lowered its forecast for EU soft wheat exports this year to 30.
4 million tonnes, down from a forecast of 31.
2 million tonnes in January
.
However, the company raised its forecast for EU wheat exports to China and Morocco
.
In addition, France will sell further wheat to Algeria later in the season after diplomatic tensions between France and Algeria eased
.

 

　　French wheat prices continued to fall in the previous weeks, mainly because traditional top buyer Algeria turned to Black Sea sources and Argentine wheat
.
French wheat exports in January 2022 fell to their lowest level since September 2021
.
Preliminary shipment data showed that France exported 775,000 tonnes of soft wheat to non-EU countries in January, down from 808,200 tonnes in December but up from 546,000 tonnes a year earlier
.
Morocco was the main export destination for French soft wheat in January with 317,600 tonnes
.
French soft wheat exports to China remained strong in January at 281,600 tonnes, though slightly below December levels
.
By contrast, France did not export wheat to Algeria in January, the first time France has not exported any wheat to Algeria since 2012/13
.
Algeria is generally the largest wheat importer for French wheat
.
This year Algeria has increasingly sourced wheat from the Black Sea region and Argentina
.
Problems with the quality of French wheat this year, coupled with a diplomatic spat between France and Algeria, have led Algeria's state-owned grain agency OAIC to repeatedly reject French wheat in international tenders
.
France's feed wheat exports in January 2022 were 53,000 tonnes, with China the only export destination
.

 

　　Total French soft wheat exports, including feed wheat, have reached 5.
32 million tonnes so far in 2021/22
.
FranceAgriMer, the crop office under the French Ministry of Agriculture, expects France to export 9 million tonnes of soft wheat to non-EU countries this season, up from 7.
42 million tonnes last year but well below the 10.
5 million tonnes initially forecast in July
.

 

　　The European Commission on January 27 raised its forecast for EU soft wheat stocks due to a sharp increase in imports
.
The committee forecasts EU-27 soft wheat stocks to reach a four-year high of 13.
3 million tonnes by the end of the 2021/22 season, up from a forecast of 12.
9 million tonnes in December, as soft wheat import forecasts are raised 0.
5 million tonnes to 2 million tons
.
Production and export forecasts for 2021/22 are unchanged at 130.
6 million and 32 million tonnes, respectively
.
In addition, barley stocks were lowered from 4.
5 million tons to 4.
15 million tons, mainly due to a 300,000-ton reduction in imports; corn stocks were significantly reduced from 18.
9 million tons to 17.
3 million tons, because exports are expected to be raised from 3.
7 million tons to 5 million tons t
.

 

　　EU-27 wheat exports reached 16.
92 million tonnes in 2021/22 (July-June) as of February 6 (16.
64 million tonnes last week and 16.
22 million tonnes in the same period last year), according to European Commission data.
The volume was 1.
63 million tons (1.
55 million tons last week and 1.
49 million tons in the same period last year)
.
Algeria is still the number one destination, but imports are much lower than the same period last year, with 2.
58 million tons of wheat imported so far, 2.
58 million tons a week ago, and 3.
43 million tons in the same period last year; its share was 15.
2%, down from 15.
5% a week ago, It was also down from 21.
2% a year earlier
.
China jumped to the second largest buyer, importing 1.
64 million tons, compared with 1.
62 million tons a week ago and 1.
63 million tons in the same period last year, with a share of 9.
7%, 9.
8% a week ago, and 10.
1% in the same period last year
.
Egypt was the third largest buyer, importing 1.
64 million tons, compared with 1.
64 million tons a week ago and 3.
19 million tons in the same period last year; its share was 9.
7%, compared with 9.
9% a week ago and 2.
0% in the same period last year
.

 

　　Exports of milling wheat from the port of Rouen improved in the week to Feb.
9, as exports to China and Israel rose, data from French port operator Haropa showed
.

 

　　Investment funds and financial institutions were net long 120,292 contracts in the Euronext milling wheat futures and options market as of February 4, 2022, down from 129,801 contracts a week earlier, Euronext's holdings data show
.

 

　　The euro was trading at $1.
14 on Friday, compared with $1.
14 a week ago
.

 

　　Note: 1 Euro is equal to 1.
14 USD