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On May 27, at the "4+1" meeting held with the China Coal Industry Association, the four coal companies of Shenhua, China Coal, Datong Coal, and Yitai decided that the price of coal in June this year will generally increase per ton compared to May.
10 yuan
.
Analysts believe that the results are basically in line with market expectations.
Coupled with coal mine production restrictions, coal prices are accumulating more and more upward momentum, and the intensity of production restrictions will largely determine the future direction of coal prices
.
Sewage coal generally rises by 10 yuan per ton.
Despite the current poor demand in the downstream coastal areas, the supply of sewage coal is generally balanced, and the supply of some high-sulfur coal is tight
.
Regarding the general rise of water coal by the four coal companies by 10 yuan per ton, the industry believes that on the one hand, the peak of summer electricity consumption is approaching, and the supply of goods is not loose; on the other hand, the supply of imported coal has been tight recently, especially Indonesian coal.
Tensions, combined with rising international sea freight and other factors, have caused the price of imported coal to rise
.
In the later stage, the downstream is expected to increase domestic coal demand and support domestic coal prices
.
Deng Shun, an analyst from Anxunsi coal industry, believes that due to coal mine production restrictions and the recent rise in the price of thermal coal at pitheads, some high-sulfur coal types are out of stock at the port.
Coastal freight rates, a leading indicator of the price of water coal, have been launched, and the CIF price of imported coal has also risen.
, The increase determined by the "4+1" meeting is basically in line with market expectations
.
In fact, relevant companies and traders have adjusted accordingly
.
Some northern port traders are hoarding and reluctant to sell their goods, hoping to load them after the price increase in June.
This is also part of the reason for the recent increase in coal inventories in northern ports
.
Data shows that as of May 27, the total inventory of Qinhuangdao Port, Caofeidian Port, Jingtang Port, Tianjin Port and Huanghua Port was 14.
973 million tons, an increase of 1.
81 million tons from the previous month and a decrease of 7.
81 million tons from the same period last year; the coal inventory of the six major power plants along the coast 12.
696 million tons, an increase of 1.
44 million tons month-on-month, and the highest since the beginning of March, the number of days available for inventory is 22.
5 days
.
The intensity of production restrictions determines the direction of coal prices.
However, the industry is cautious about the reluctance to sell goods in ports
.
The current port inventory will put pressure on coal prices in the future; at the same time, downstream demand is limited.
If domestic coal prices rise, imported coal will gain part of the domestic coal market share
.
Recently, coastal power groups have increased their purchases of imported coal
.
Judging from the recent purchase prices, the CIF price of imported coal for this month’s bidding has generally risen by US$1 to US$2 per ton from the previous month
.
Deng Shun pointed out that although the second quarter is the traditional off-season for demand, domestic coal prices have been stable from April to May this year.
The price increase in June was mainly due to the strict implementation of production restrictions by domestic coal companies
.
A person from a coal company told a reporter from the China Securities Journal that the current production restriction policies in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi are all being implemented, and the production restriction policies will gradually become stricter in the next few months
.
However, the production restriction policy has also led to a significant decrease in production and shipping volume at the production area and an increase in the production cost of coal enterprises
.
The intensity of future production restrictions will largely determine the direction of coal prices
.
It is worth noting that in the past, coal companies were willing to limit production due to serious losses.
Once the loss has eased, private coal mines are likely to increase production, thereby increasing pressure on the supply side
.
10 yuan
.
Analysts believe that the results are basically in line with market expectations.
Coupled with coal mine production restrictions, coal prices are accumulating more and more upward momentum, and the intensity of production restrictions will largely determine the future direction of coal prices
.
Sewage coal generally rises by 10 yuan per ton.
Despite the current poor demand in the downstream coastal areas, the supply of sewage coal is generally balanced, and the supply of some high-sulfur coal is tight
.
Regarding the general rise of water coal by the four coal companies by 10 yuan per ton, the industry believes that on the one hand, the peak of summer electricity consumption is approaching, and the supply of goods is not loose; on the other hand, the supply of imported coal has been tight recently, especially Indonesian coal.
Tensions, combined with rising international sea freight and other factors, have caused the price of imported coal to rise
.
In the later stage, the downstream is expected to increase domestic coal demand and support domestic coal prices
.
Deng Shun, an analyst from Anxunsi coal industry, believes that due to coal mine production restrictions and the recent rise in the price of thermal coal at pitheads, some high-sulfur coal types are out of stock at the port.
Coastal freight rates, a leading indicator of the price of water coal, have been launched, and the CIF price of imported coal has also risen.
, The increase determined by the "4+1" meeting is basically in line with market expectations
.
In fact, relevant companies and traders have adjusted accordingly
.
Some northern port traders are hoarding and reluctant to sell their goods, hoping to load them after the price increase in June.
This is also part of the reason for the recent increase in coal inventories in northern ports
.
Data shows that as of May 27, the total inventory of Qinhuangdao Port, Caofeidian Port, Jingtang Port, Tianjin Port and Huanghua Port was 14.
973 million tons, an increase of 1.
81 million tons from the previous month and a decrease of 7.
81 million tons from the same period last year; the coal inventory of the six major power plants along the coast 12.
696 million tons, an increase of 1.
44 million tons month-on-month, and the highest since the beginning of March, the number of days available for inventory is 22.
5 days
.
The intensity of production restrictions determines the direction of coal prices.
However, the industry is cautious about the reluctance to sell goods in ports
.
The current port inventory will put pressure on coal prices in the future; at the same time, downstream demand is limited.
If domestic coal prices rise, imported coal will gain part of the domestic coal market share
.
Recently, coastal power groups have increased their purchases of imported coal
.
Judging from the recent purchase prices, the CIF price of imported coal for this month’s bidding has generally risen by US$1 to US$2 per ton from the previous month
.
Deng Shun pointed out that although the second quarter is the traditional off-season for demand, domestic coal prices have been stable from April to May this year.
The price increase in June was mainly due to the strict implementation of production restrictions by domestic coal companies
.
A person from a coal company told a reporter from the China Securities Journal that the current production restriction policies in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi are all being implemented, and the production restriction policies will gradually become stricter in the next few months
.
However, the production restriction policy has also led to a significant decrease in production and shipping volume at the production area and an increase in the production cost of coal enterprises
.
The intensity of future production restrictions will largely determine the direction of coal prices
.
It is worth noting that in the past, coal companies were willing to limit production due to serious losses.
Once the loss has eased, private coal mines are likely to increase production, thereby increasing pressure on the supply side
.
