Full analysis of the second batch of volume purchasing: schedule, number of varieties

Source: Cypress blue Author: Corn Senior industry figures predict that the second batch of volume purchase will be listed by the National Health Insurance Bureau at the end of the year, and the plan and quotation will be issued from February to March 2020 It is expected to be launched in the first half of next year On November 15, the national health and Health Commission announced the notice of the leading group of the State Council on deepening the reform of the medical and health system on further promoting the experience of deepening the reform of the medical and health system in Fujian Province and Sanming City, which said that in 2020, according to the unified national deployment, the scope of centralized procurement and use of drugs by the national organizations will be expanded The second batch of state procurement with volume is coming on the accelerator Today, Guo Xinfeng, a partner of Nanjing Leyao Venture Capital Management Co., Ltd., told saibelan that he judged that the state health insurance bureau would issue the second batch of purchasing catalogue with volume at the end of the year, and would issue plans and quotations from February to March 2020, which is expected to be implemented in the first half of next year Guo Xinfeng confessed that his analysis was based on the logic that the first round of 4 + 7 ended perfectly before the second round of national centralized mining started As we all know, the first round will be implemented in March 2019, while the 4 + 7 expansion will be carried out According to the announcements of many provinces, it will be launched in December this year and January next year Judging from this progress, the second batch may be optimistic to start in the first half of next year However, some well-known pharmacists have revealed that the second batch will not have a clear timetable until the rules and policies are improved according to the problems in the early stage, or it may come earlier After the announcement of the first batch of selected drugs in volume purchase, the industry agreed that the number of the second batch would surely exceed that of the first batch What is the specific number? According to Guo Xinfeng's analysis, the number of varieties is likely to exceed that of the first batch, excluding 31 varieties in the first round of 4 + 7, and all drugs that have passed the consistency evaluation have opportunities According to the statistics of cypress blue, up to now, 430 product specifications have passed the (deemed) consistency evaluation In fact, on March 5, 2016, the office of the State Council issued the opinions on the evaluation of the consistency of quality and efficacy of generic drugs to make it clear that its significance lies in improving the overall level of China's pharmaceutical industry, ensuring the safety and effectiveness of drugs, and promoting the upgrading and structural adjustment of the pharmaceutical industry After the first batch of volume purchase experiments on 25 drugs, it is likely that more drugs will enter the catalogue when it is pushed forward On the one hand, it is an incentive to the evaluated enterprises, and it can also greatly reduce the drug price and slow down the increase of residents' medical expenses A source told cypress blue that the second batch of catalogues is under development Geng Hongwu, general marketing consultant of JIUZHOUTONG Pharmaceutical Group, has his own analysis on the second batch of on volume procurement He told cypress blue that the second batch will start the national joint mining and the price reduction will be continuous According to the active participation of Chinese and foreign enterprises in the 4 + 7 expansion, the enthusiasm for the second batch of foreign enterprises is gradually rising Last year, the average price of winning drugs in 4 + 7 volume procurement fell by 52%, and this year, the average price of winning varieties in 45 pharmaceutical enterprises expanded by 59% The quotation among enterprises is tragic There is a precedent that the sales volume of some 4 + 7 drugs market is expected to shrink by half Perhaps the second round of bidding will highlight the competition among large enterprises Geng Hongwu judged that the predictable consequences of losing the mainstream market for at least one year and the sharp decline in sales volume would stimulate enterprises to make every effort to win the election, so-called barefoot is not afraid to wear shoes In addition, he analyzes the linkage of medical insurance cooperative institutions, which will be the focus of the next batch of volume purchasing programs Guo Xinfeng believes that price reduction is inevitable and will not be small For the procurement mode, he judged that it would be three choices, and some varieties might be open to more enterprises On September 25, the head of the 4 + 7 volume procurement expansion joint procurement said in the "reply to reporters about the pilot area expansion of centralized procurement of drugs organized by the state" that the volume procurement will give 50% - 70% of the market procurement to the selected drugs through the consistency evaluation of generic drugs, and take various supporting measures to ensure the priority use There is no doubt that a market dividend has been given to the selected drugs, and the corresponding rejected drugs may lose at least one year or more So there's really no chance of losing the election? For this problem, Guo Xinfeng told cypress blue that the drugs selected in the volume purchase were divided into stock markets, but there were also surprises With the empowerment of the supporting policies of chronic disease policy and the increase of patient return, there will be a larger incremental market Based on this judgment, the sales volume of selected drugs will increase significantly compared with the reported volume.