Global Feed Grain Market: Falling Feed Grain Prices Will Continue to Retain Risk Premium

 

July 2022 corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) settled at about $7725 a bush on Friday, down 5 cents, or 2%, from a week a.
Spot US Gulf .
2 yellow corn was quoted at $6725 a bushel, up 5 cent, or 06%, from a week a.
November 2022 corn futures on the EURONEXT exchange settled at around €3550/tonne, down €7 or 9% from a week a.
Argentine corn was offered at $318/ton FOB in Shanghe, down $1 or 3% from a week a.
The September 2022 corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at about 2,938 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan or 2% from a week a.
International crude oil futures rose between 4% and 6% this week and are up more than 50% so far this ye.
Oil prices have also been boosted by the prospect of possible European Union sanctions on Russian crude as the.

approaches the.

summer driving season, with gasoline supplies tightening and prices hitting record hig.
The July West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) closed at $1107 a barrel, up 3% from a week ago and its fifth straight weekly ga.
July Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, settled at 1155 yuan a barrel, up 6 percent from a week earli.
The.

dollar index closed at 10698 on Friday, down 43 percent from a week earli.

 

　.

corn planting accelerated last week, but northern Plains slowed significantly

 

Last week, weather in the.

Midwest was favorable for faster planting, sending corn futures lower, hitting a 1-1/2-month low midwe.
The.

Department of Agriculture’s weekly crop progress report shows that as of May 22,.

corn planting was 72% complete, higher than market expectations of 68%, and advancing 23 percentage points within a week, but still lower than the 89% planting progress in the same period last year and five yea.
Mean 7
The planting progress in major producing areas such as Illinois, Iowa and Indiana has caught up with the historical average, but the planting progress in the Northern Plains is still seriously behind, of which North Dakota is only 20% completed, 81% in the same period last year, and the five-year average 66%; Minnesota completed 60%, 98% a year earlier, and a five-year average of 8
South Dakota 62%, 92% a year earlier, and a five-year average of 7
The three states experienced heavy snowfall during the winter, and heavy rains in April caused spring floodi.
The.


Commodity Weather Group said that starting Saturday, plantings in the three states will be disrupted by ra.

Considering that the ideal planting window has closed, which means that corn yield potential for subsequent plantings may be significantly reduced, and that the last planting date for crop insurance is May 25 (North and South Dakota) or May 31 (Minnesota), the Farmers are faced with two choices, either to convert their corn land to other crops such as soybeans, or to apply for subsidies for unplanted cro.

 

Falling plantings mean the weather doesn't allow any mishaps

 

The.


Department of Agriculture’s March Planting Intentions Survey showed.


farmers intend to plant far less corn acres this year than industry analysts had expected, down 4 percentage points from 202 Despite the high price of corn, the year-to-date increase in corn futures (+36%) is less than that of soybean futures (31%), and corn is a fertilizer and energy-intensive cr.

The continued high fertilizer prices and rising energy costs this year have also prompted farmers to choose less Sow co.

If farmers in the northern regions choose to rebroadcast soybeans or apply for unplanted subsidies, it indicates that US corn supplies will be tighter than currently expected this fall, and the strong basis for Brazil and Argentina also indicates that corn production in both countries may be l.

than current USDA expectatio.

Chicago Agricultural Resources expects stocks in major corn exporters to hit record lo.

All of this suggests that the weather for the.


corn planting season in the next few months is not going to let anything go wrong, as corn supplies will be extremely tight if yields are lowered furth.

Considering that the US corn planting season has just begun, violent fluctuations in the weather market are inevitable, which will help support the preservation of risk premiums for corn futures pric.

 

China opens up Brazilian market,.


corn faces new rivals

 

This week, the General Administration of Customs of China and Brazil signed a revised version of the quality inspection agreement for imported Brazilian corn, helping to reduce reliance on Ukraine and.


suppli.

Nearly all of China's corn imports in recent years have come from the United States and Ukrai.

The disruption of Black Sea grain exports since the end of February prompted China to speed up purchases of.


co.

But the.


sees China as a major competitor, potentially prompting China’s efforts to diversify its sources of impor.

Abramilho, the Brazilian Corn Growers Association, said Brazil needs to reach an agreement with China on genetically modified grains before it can actually start exporting corn to Chi.

 

In the past few years, China's corn import demand has been high, with imports of 129 million tons in 2020 and a record 236 million tons in 2021, of which 70% came from the United States and 29% from Ukrai.

But since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in late February, China's corn imports from Ukraine have fallen to 700,000 tonnes in Apr.

In this case, China and Brazil signed an agreement to help expand import channels and also put pressure on.


corn to the downside, as the market is expected to take some market share from the United States for Brazilian co.

Brazil's corn exports to China in April 2022 were 35,000 tonn.

As of May 25, the FOB price of corn on the recent shipping date in the US Gulf was $343 per ton, the price of corn in Brazil's Paranagua port was $331 per ton, and the price of corn in the upper river area of ​​Argentina was $31

 

Frost limited damage to Brazil's second crop

 

Last week's frost damage to Brazil's second corn crop was limit.

A weaker frost in the westernmost state of Parana, the second largest corn producing region, did not cause major damage to the second crop, the National Commodities Supply Company (CONAB), a subsidiary of Brazil's Ministry of Agriculture, said on May 2 But dryness and lack of rain remain a conce.

The weather agency Maxar said last weekend was generally dry in Brazil's second-crop corn producing areas, with Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais, northern Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo states of particular conce.

Brazil's National Meteorological Service (INMET) said widespread rainfall is unlikely in the Midwest from May 23 to 3 CONAB this month lowered its 2021/22 Brazilian corn production forecast to 116 million tons, down from 116 million in April, but would still be an all-time hi.

 

Analysts cut Brazil's second-season corn output

 

On May 25, consultancy Céleres said that due to continued dry weather in southwestern Goias and southeastern Mato Grosso, the second-season corn yield was damaged, and the company lowered Brazil's second-season corn production to 86 million to.

It was 6 million tons lower than the original estimate of 92 million tons; total corn production was also revised down to 111 million tons, down from the original estimate of 122 million tons, but would still be an all-time hi.

The production figures do not yet take into account the potential damage from frosts in the south and southea.

Céleres expects Brazilian rice exports to be 35 million tonnes in 2022, down from an initial forecast of 42 million tonn.

Corn ending stocks are forecast at 2 million tons, well below the initial forecast of 22 million to.

 

Russian-Ukrainian conflict will result in the absence of Black Sea corn from global markets this year and next

 

S&P Global Platts analyst Alexandre Bobylov told the Grain & Maritime conference in Istanbul that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will lead to a loss of 15 million tons of Ukrainian corn supplies to the global market in 2021/22 and 21 million tons of Ukrainian corn supplies in 2022/2 Ukraine's corn ending stocks will reach 8 million tons this season and 8 million tons next ye.

 

This week, senior Turkish officials revealed on Thursday that Turkey was in talks with Russia and Ukraine to open a corridor through the Bosphorus for Ukrainian grain expor.

Once opened, the grain export corridor, which began in Turkey, could allow Ukrainian grains to reach target markets in demand, improve global supply constraints and help curb high inflati.

Negotiations are currently underw.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko said on Wednesday that Russia was ready to provide a humanitarian channel for Ukrainian grain ships in exchange for the lifting of some Western sanctio.

However, Western countries reacted lukewarmly to Russia's pl.

Britain outright rejected the Russian propos.