Global feed market: seasonal harvest pressure appears, China and the United States increase corn production

 

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) December 2021 corn futures fell approximately 6.
5 cents or 1.
2% from a week ago, to close at 517.
5 cents/po
.
The spot price of Meiwan No.
2 yellow corn was 585 cents per bus, down 8.
5 cents or 1.
4% from a week ago
.
The corn futures for delivery in November 2021 on the EURONEXT exchange reported approximately 211.
5 euros/ton, down 5.
5 euros or 2.
5% from a week ago
.
The FOB spot price of Argentine corn in Shanghe was US$236/ton, an increase of US$3 from a week ago
.
The Dalian Commodity Exchange's January 2022 corn futures will close at about 2,459 yuan/ton, down 33 or 1.
3% from a week ago
.

 

This week, the international crude oil futures market rose for the second consecutive week, as Hurricane Ida caused a tight supply of US crude oil.
The heads of state of China and the United States made the first call in months, which helped boost investors' risk appetite
.
On Friday, the October contract of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) was trading at 69.
72 yuan per barrel, up 0.
6% from a week ago
.
The global benchmark November Brent crude oil futures closed at $72.
92 per barrel, up 0.
4% from a week ago
.

 

　　On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 92.
64 points, up 0.
6% from a week ago
.

 

　　The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture raises US corn production by 6.
25 million tons and China’s corn production by 5 million tons

 

　　In its supply and demand report on September 10, the US Department of Agriculture raised the forecast value of US corn production for 2021/22 to nearly 15 billion bushels (381 million tons), an increase of 246 million bushels (equivalent to 6.
25 million tons) from the previous month.
, Because of the increase in harvested area and yield, the average yield was increased by 1.
7 bu, and the harvested area was increased by 600,000 acres
.
U.
S.
corn consumption in 2021/22 will be raised by 150 million bushes.
As the increase in supply exceeds the increase in consumption, the US corn stocks at the end of August 2022 will be raised by 166 million bushes to 1.
4 billion bushes
.

 

　　This month, the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture also raised China’s corn production by 5 million tons to 273 million tons; Argentina’s corn production increased by 2 million tons to 53 million tons
.
The forecast value of global corn production is expected to be close to 1.
2 billion tons, 11.
6 million tons higher than last month
.
Since the increase in supply exceeds the increase in consumption, the global corn ending stocks are expected to be 297.
63 million tons, which is 13 million tons higher than last month and higher than 28.
648 million tons last year
.

 

　　Corn harvest in the southern United States begins, and weather in the Midwest is favorable for corn maturity and harvest

 

　　The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report shows that as of September 5, the US corn maturity rate was 21%, and the five-year average over the same period was 19%
.
The excellent and good rate of corn was 59%, 60% a week ago and 62% in the same period last year
.
In the corn growing belt of the United States, dry weather and rising temperatures accelerated the maturity of summer crops
.
Maximum temperatures range from Michigan to nearly 24 degrees to 32 degrees in parts of the western corn belt
.
Despite recent rains, serious soil moisture shortages still exist in the northern midwest
.
For example, on September 5, South Dakota's surface soil moisture was short to very short, and the ratio was as high as 66%
.
The southern United States has mild temperatures and low humidity, which helps summer crops to mature and harvest.
On September 5, corn harvest completion rates in the Gulf Coast states ranged from 36% in Alabama to 90% in Louisiana
.

 

　　From September 6 to 10, the southern United States will experience dry weather, and the cold air forward will bring sporadic showers to the northern half, even though most areas receive less than an inch of rainfall
.
The temperature is relatively high in most parts of the country
.
The 6 to 10 day outlook from September 15 to 19 shows that the temperature in most parts of the United States is above normal
.
Rainfall in the corn belts of the eastern United States is relatively high, while rainfall in the western and central regions of the United States is relatively low
.

 

　　The Mississippi River resumes navigation in the U.
S.

 

　　Last weekend (September 4-5), the U.
S.
Coast Guard fully reopened the Mississippi River to navigation, and barge traffic has picked up.
However, due to various obstacles in the channel, including sunken barges, the route is still slow
.
At least one grain export facility was completely reopened this week.
On Sunday (September 5), a freighter shipped 75,000 tons of soybeans at Louis Dreyfus’s Raffles Allen terminal in Baton Rouge
.
Other facilities are expected to resume power supply during the weekend
.
At least two export facilities were damaged and it will take several weeks to repair, but other export facilities should resume operations soon
.
As of the week of September 2, the US corn export inspection volume was only 275,799 tons, of which 84,733 tons were exported from the Gulf of Louisiana, the lowest weekly export in two years
.
The market will pay attention to whether the full reopening of US Gulf export facilities will release the previously suppressed demand, especially considering that the current December corn futures price is close to a three-month low
.

 

　　Brazilian government lowers corn production estimates

 

　　This week, the Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB) released the final production estimate report for 2020/21.
The 102.
6 million tons in 2010 was due to the continuous drought in the main producing areas and the frost in the central and southern regions, which caused serious damage to the second crop of corn
.
The second-season corn output is expected to be 59.
472 million tons, a decrease of 1.
4% from last month's forecast and a decrease of 16.
4% from the previous year
.
CONAB lowered Brazil’s corn exports to 22 million tons, which was 1.
5 million tons lower than the August forecast and 36.
9% less than the previous year
.
As of September 4, the harvest of the second season corn was 93.
7%, which was 3.
4% higher than the same period last year
.

 

　　Consulting agency AgRural again this week lowered its forecast for 2020/21 corn production in Brazil, from 82.
2 million tons in early August to 81.
9 million tons, a decrease of more than 20 million tons from the 102.
6 million tons in 2019/20
.
AgRural expects the second season corn output to be 55.
6 million tons, which is lower than the 75.
1 million tons in 2019/20
.