Global oilseed market: Ome Keron virus dropped suddenly on Black Friday, U.S. soybeans fell

 

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) January 2022 soybean futures fell approximately 10.
50 cents or 0.
8% from a week ago, to close at 1252.
75 cents per cat
.
The Euronext exchange's February 2022 rapeseed futures will close at approximately 673.
25 Euros/ton, a decrease of 4.
5 Euros or 0.
7% from a week ago
.
The January rapeseed period of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose by about 33.
3 Canadian dollars or 3.
3% from a week ago to close at 1038.
90 Canadian dollars per ton; the FOB spot price of Argentine Shanghe soybeans was 547 US dollars (including 33% export tax), compared with It was down $4 or 0.
7% a week ago
.
The January soybean settlement price on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 6,212 yuan/ton, down 116 yuan or 1.
8% from a week ago
.

 

　　Omi Keron's new strain triggers a stampede on safe-haven funds

 

　　Thanksgiving in the United States on Thursday marks the beginning of the month-long holiday season in the United States
.
The Friday after Thanksgiving every year is also called Black Friday (different from Black Friday on the 13th)
.
This Black Friday, the new coronavirus mutant B.
1.
1.
529 from Africa turned out, with more than 30 mutations in the new strain.
On Friday, the World Health Organization named this new virus Omicron (Omicron, Li It is said that the West is called Rong)
.
People are worried that existing vaccines may not protect against new strains.
Many countries, including the United Kingdom and the United States, immediately announced travel restrictions and stricter border controls, triggering collective panic among investors, risk-averse psychology gaining the upper hand, and competing to withdraw high-risk assets.
Coupled with the decrease in market liquidity during the holiday season and the increase in market volatility, after the futures price fell below the key support, it further triggered stop-loss selling and technical selling.
From the stock market to crude oil to Bitcoin staged a stampede market, among which crude oil futures slumped all the way.
, Setting the biggest one-day drop since the oil price fell into negative value in April 2020
.

 

　　Rapeseed thrives, but it's not cold in the heights

 

　　Compared with the plummeting crude oil and the stock market, the agricultural product market opened lower, but mostly rebounded from intraday lows
.
The recent contract for rapeseed is even more outstanding, not only regaining lost ground, but also hitting a new high.
This is mainly because the supply of spot rapeseed is extremely tight, and the demand has not yet shown signs of slowing down
.
Statistics Canada data show that the rapeseed crush in October was 876,127 tons, which was 55,000 tons lower than the same period last year, but nearly 100,000 tons more than in September
.
Data from the Canadian Grain Council shows that as of the week of November 21, rapeseed exports were 21,400 tons, up from 126,900 tons a week ago
.
However, total rapeseed exports so far in the 2021/22 season are down 46% year-on-year to 2.
14 million tons
.
So far this year, the price of rapeseed has risen by 57.
9%.
Analysts believe that the price of rapeseed is currently seriously overbought, and the market outlook is likely to fluctuate around 1,000 Canadian dollars
.

 

　　U.
S.
demand for renewable fuels boosts soybean oil

 

　　As far as soybeans are concerned, the price of soybeans rose at the beginning of the week because of the lucrative crushing profits, which boosted the demand for crushers
.
According to data from the National Oilseed Processing Industry Association (NOPA), member companies’ soybean crush reached 184 million bushels in October 2021, a 20% increase from the three-month low in September
.
As of the week of November 24, the U.
S.
soybean crush profit was $3.
47 per cat, an increase of 74% year-on-year
.
The new soybean harvest in the United States and high soybean oil prices support soybean crush profits
.
The United States may allow soybean oil-based aviation fuel (SAF) to receive unprecedented tax credits, or it will prompt US refiners to consider large-scale production of soybean oil SAP
.
In addition, the U.
S.
Environmental Protection Agency may announce the mandatory blending quantity of renewable fuels in 2022 in the near future, which also attracts some traders to buy soybean oil in advance
.
According to the current forecast of the US Department of Agriculture, 11 billion pounds of soybean oil will be used to produce biofuels in the United States in 2021/22, an increase of 24% over the previous year
.
In addition, the renewable diesel technology that has emerged in the United States in recent years allows manufacturers to directly use refined soybean oil to produce renewable diesel with almost the same physical and chemical properties as conventional diesel without mixing with petroleum-based diesel, which significantly expands the use of soybean oil.
This also constitutes a long-term positive for soybean oil
.

 

　　U.
S.
soybean export window may narrow

 

　　In terms of export demand, for the week ending November 18, 2021, net soybean sales in the United States in 2021/22 were 1.
56 million tons, which was 13% higher than last week and 13% higher than the four-week average
.
However, so far this year, the total US soybean export sales are 36.
17 million tons, which is still 30% lower than the same period last year.
This is mainly because China's soybean demand this year is lower than the US Department of Agriculture expected
.
Taking into account that Brazilian soybeans may be listed ahead of schedule, the price of Brazilian soybeans in January next year may be more competitive than that of the United States, which means that the US soybean export window may be narrowed
.

 

　　This week the U.
S.
Bureau of Economic Research (ERS) lowered the forecast of U.
S.
soybean export revenue by 12% from the August forecast in the quarterly export outlook report, and is expected to drop to $28.
4 billion, a decrease of $3.
9 billion from the 2021 fiscal year; soybean meal The value of exports decreased by 800 million US dollars to 4.
9 billion US dollars because of falling prices
.
The 2022 fiscal year begins on October 1, 2021
.
According to this forecast, it is equivalent to reducing soybean exports by 100 million cats, and soybean ending stocks at the end of August 2022 will also increase to 440 million cats
.

 

　　The outlook for soybean production in South America is optimistic, but the weather in some areas is worthy of attention

 

　　So far this year, the weather in Brazil is generally good, soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and production is expected to hit a record high
.
According to data from the consulting agency AgRural, as of November 18, the soybean planting progress in Brazil in 2021/22 reached 86%, which was higher than 81% in the same period last year
.
However, the rainy weather in some areas prompted a company to lower its soybean production forecast in Brazil, although the lowered production still hit a record high
.

 

　　In Argentina, as of last Thursday, 32% of the soybean planting work in Argentina was completed, which is basically the same as the same period last year and the five-year average
.
By the end of December, nearly 90% of soybean planting in Argentina should be completed
.
February and March are usually the key months for the formation of soybean yields in Argentina
.
At present, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is expected to produce 44 million tons in 2021/22.
The Rosario Exchange and the US government have forecasted values ​​of 48.
8 million tons and 49.
5 million tons, respectively
.

 

　　Oil World's executive director Thomas Melco said on Tuesday that global soybean production in 2021/22 will increase by 17 million tons year-on-year to 379 million tons
.
As soybean production grows faster than consumption growth, soybean stocks may climb
.