Global wheat market: Australia's heavy rains have damaged wheat quality, and wheat prices continue to rise

 

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) March soft red winter wheat futures rose about 6 cents or 0.
7% from a week ago to close at 840.
25 cents per cat
.
The Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) March hard red winter wheat futures closed at approximately 869 cents per bus, up 30.
5 cents or 3.
6% from a week ago
.
The March hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) closed at approximately 1,048.
50 cents per bus, up 34 cents or 3.
4% from a week ago
.
Euronext's March 2022 milling wheat period will report approximately 302.
75 Euros/ton, up 5.
75 Euros or 1.
9% from a week ago
.
The spot price of Argentine wheat was 319 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars or 2.
9% from a week ago, FOB price
.

 

On Friday, the U.
S.
dollar index closed at 96.
07 points, which was stable from a week ago, but still remained at the highest level since July 2020
.

 

Some winter wheat in the U.
S.
is short of moisture and crops are facing growth pressure

 

The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report shows that as of November 21, 96% of winter wheat planting in the United States has been planted, with a five-year average of 97%
.
The national winter wheat emergence rate is 86%, and the five-year average is 87%
.
The excellent and good rate of winter wheat is 44%, lower than 46% a week ago.
Although higher than 43% in the same period in 2020, it is lower than the average level in recent years (52% in the same period in 2019, 56% in 2018, 52% in 2018)
.
Many areas of the Great Plains of the United States have insufficient rainfall and dry weather
.
Weather forecasts indicate that drought conditions in the central and southwestern Great Plains may continue or worsen, including western Kansas, southeastern Colorado, western Oklahoma, and two-thirds of western and southern Texas Area
.
Dry weather in winter may put more growth pressure on winter wheat
.

 

　　U.
S.
wheat export sales increased last week

 

　　The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending November 18, 2021, the US’s 2021/22 net wheat sales were 567,500 tons, 42% higher than last week and 70% higher than the four-week average
.
So far this year, the total US wheat export sales are 14.
24 million tons, a decrease of 21.
1% from the same period last year
.

 

　　Rainy weather in Australia interrupted wheat harvest and damaged quality

 

　　The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said on Tuesday that the La Niña weather phenomenon has appeared in the Pacific Ocean for the second consecutive year, which may cause high rainfall in central, northern and eastern Australia
.
A low pressure system earlier this month brought 50 to 150 millimeters of rain to some areas of southeastern Australia.
This was the highest rainfall in many years and triggered flooding in the interior states of Queensland and New South Wales
.
Heavy rains have interrupted wheat harvesting in some areas and caused market concerns about the damage to wheat quality.
Currently, the world is eagerly looking forward to the launch of new Australian wheat to alleviate the pressure of global supply shortages
.
In September, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resources, Economics and Sciences (ABARES) raised the output of Australian wheat for 2021/22 to 32.
6 million tons, a 17% increase from earlier expectations and close to the previous year's record of 33.
3 million tons
.
Wheat exports in 2021/22 are expected to be approximately 23 million tons of wheat, lower than last year's 23.
6 million tons
.

 

　　Australia's high-protein wheat premium has increased significantly

 

　　The early harvest of Australian wheat showed that the protein level was lower than expected, which greatly increased the premium of high-protein wheat relative to standard wheat, because the spring wheat production in the United States and Canada had fallen due to drought
.
The FOB price of Australian Premium White Wheat (APW) in Western Australia hit a record high of US$365 per ton, up from US$340 per ton a few weeks ago
.
In contrast, Australian Standard White Wheat (ASW) sells for US$325 per ton
.
This means that the price difference between the two types of wheat has widened to US$40/ton, while the price difference at the beginning of November was US$7, and on November 9 it was expanded to US$9/ton
.

 

　　Black Sea wheat prices continue to rise

 

　　Russian wheat export prices continued to rise last week because of strong demand from importing countries
.
Russia sold 250,000 tons of wheat to Algeria last week and shipped it in December
.
Algeria is usually the main market for French wheat
.
This year, the quality of French wheat was damaged due to the rainy summer, which affected the fall value of one of the milling standards, which also prompted Algeria to lower the wheat quality standards
.
Russian wheat has also been able to enter this market
.
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture raised the export tariff on wheat to US$78.
3/ton, higher than US$77.
1 a week ago
.
Previously, Russian Minister of Agriculture Patushev said that if the price of wheat rises to 400 US dollars per ton or more, agriculture may revise the formula for calculating floating tariffs
.

 

　　Ukrainian wheat prices have also risen sharply
.
As of November 24, the highest prices of second-class and third-class wheat in Ukrainian deep-sea ports both exceeded 10,000 hryvnia/ton
.