Global wheat market: drought concerns, bullish inventory data, wheat prices rise

Foreign media news on July 4th: In the week ending July 2, 2021, most of the global wheat prices have risen because of the bullish quarterly inventory data released by the US Department of Agriculture and the continuous dry weather in spring wheat producing areas, triggering price surges
.
However, the seasonal harvest of winter wheat in the United States is under heavy pressure, US wheat export sales are sluggish, and the prospects for wheat production in the Black Sea region are bright, restricting price increases
.

 

　　On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) September soft red winter wheat futures rose by about 12 cents or 1.
87% from a week ago, to close at 652.
75 cents per cat
.
The September hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) closed at about 619.
25 cents per bus, up 10.
25 cents or 1.
68% from a week ago
.
The September hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) closed at approximately 838.
75 cents per bus, up 30.
75 cents or 3.
81% from a week ago
.
Euronext's December 2021 milling wheat period reported about 206.
75 euros/ton, an increase of 4.
25 euros or 2.
10% from a week ago
.
The spot price of Argentine wheat was US$276/ton, up US$1 or 0.
36% from a week ago, FOB price
.
The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's wheat futures for delivery in September 2021 closed at approximately RMB 2,764/ton, down RMB 2 or 0.
1% from a week ago
.

 

　　On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 92.
24 points, up 0.
5% from a week ago
.

 

　　According to the National Crop Progress Weekly Report released by the US Department of Agriculture, as of June 27, the winter wheat harvest in the United States was 33% complete, up from 17% last week, 39% during the same period last year, and the five-year average for the same period was 40%
.
Due to the continuous dry weather in spring wheat producing areas, the excellent and good rate of spring wheat in the United States has further fallen sharply
.
As of June 27, the excellent and good rate of spring wheat was 20%, a decrease of 7% from 27% a week ago, and it was also far lower than 69% in the same period of the previous year
.
The heading rate of spring wheat was 48%, 27% a week ago, 33% in the same period last year, and 39% in the five-year period
.

 

　　Continued dry weather in the northern plains of the United States continues to affect spring wheat crops
.
The outlook for the next 6 to 10 days (July 6 to 10) released by the US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) shows that the temperature in the Midwest and the western plains, northern plains, and central plains and northeastern regions of the United States will be higher than normal.
, The precipitation will be lower than normal
.

 

　　The latest planting area report released by the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture shows that the planting area of ​​all wheat in the United States this year is expected to be 46.
743 million acres, which is higher than market expectations of 45.
94 million acres
.
As of June 1, 2021, U.
S.
wheat stocks stood at 844 million cats, which will be the lowest level in six years and also lower than market expectations of 859 million cats
.

 

　　According to the weekly export sales report issued by the US Department of Agriculture, the net sales volume of wheat delivered in the United States in the year of 2021/22 (starting on June 1) was 226,300 tons for the week ending June 24, 2021.
374,100 tons
.
So far in 2021/22, the total export sales of U.
S.
wheat has reached 6.
4 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.
7%
.

 

　　The sown area report released by Statistics Canada shows that the sown area of ​​all wheat in Canada this year is expected to reach 16.
48 million acres, which is 137,000 acres higher than the forecast in April.
However, the data is in line with market expectations and the area is reduced by nearly 150 compared to the previous year.
Million acres
.

 

　　Analyst agency IKAR this week raised the forecast value of Russian wheat production in 2021 to 83.
6 million tons, which is nearly 20% higher than the previous forecast of 82 million tons
.
However, the increased wheat output is still lower than the 85.
9 million tons in 2020
.

 

　　Agricultural consultancy APK-Inform said that Ukrainian wheat export offers fell by US$4 in the past week because of improved prospects for wheat production in the main producing countries
.
As of June 25, the FOB price of Ukrainian milled soft wheat with a protein content of 12.
5% ​​was quoted at the Black Sea port at US$236 to US$244 per ton, and the FOB price of feed wheat was US$234-241 per ton, down US$4 from a week ago
.
The 11.
5% protein milling wheat harvested in 2021 is quoted at a FOB of US$250 to US$252 per ton at the Black Sea port for delivery in August
.