Global wheat market: global wheat production is worrying, wheat prices are rising

In the week ending August 13, 2021, global wheat prices rose mainly because the US Department of Agriculture lowered its forecasts for wheat production in North America and Russia in its August supply and demand report, reflecting the damage caused by severe weather
.
In addition, the world's major importing countries continue to actively enter the market, purchase wheat, replenish stocks, and support wheat prices
.

 

　　On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) September soft red winter wheat futures rose about 43.
25 cents or 6% from a week ago to close at 762.
25 cents per cat
.
The September hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) closed at about 742.
25 cents per bus, up 19.
75 cents or 2.
7% from a week ago
.
The September hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) closed at approximately 944.
25 cents per bus, up 28 cents or 3.
1% from a week ago
.
Euronext's December 2021 milling wheat period reported about 254.
25 euros/ton, an increase of 22 euros or 9.
47% from a week ago
.
The spot price of Argentine wheat was US$283/ton, the same as a week ago, FOB price
.
The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's September 2021 wheat futures closed at about 2,772 yuan/ton, an increase of yuan over a week ago
.

 

　　On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 92.
52 points, down 0.
3% from a week ago
.

 

　　The US Department of Agriculture’s August supply and demand report shows that the global wheat production in the 2021/22 season is expected to be 776.
91 million tons, which is 15.
5 million tons lower than last month’s forecast and only an increase of about 0.
1% over the previous year
.
Among them, Russia’s wheat production data is lowered by 12.
5 million tons to 72.
5 million tons, Canada’s wheat production data is lowered by 7.
5 million tons to 24 million tons, and the US wheat production data is lowered by 1.
34 million tons to 46.
18 million tons.
These declines exceed those of other countries.
Production growth rates, for example, Ukraine’s output data is raised 3 million tons to 33 million tons, EU wheat production is raised 400,000 tons to 138.
6 million tons, and Australian wheat production is raised 1.
5 million tons to 30 million tons
.
China's wheat output forecast data remains unchanged at 136 million tons, and China's wheat import forecast data also remains unchanged at 10 million tons
.

 

　　Due to the decline in supply from major exporting countries, the global wheat trade data was revised down from 203.
9 million tons last month to 19823 million tons, which was also lower than the 20163 million tons last year.
Wheat consumption data was also revised down
.

 

　　The global wheat ending stocks in 2021/21 are expected to be 279.
06 million tons, down 12.
6 million tons from last month's forecast, and also a decrease of 3.
4% from the previous year and a decrease of 6.
3% from the 2019/20 season
.

 

　　The US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending August 5, 2021, the US’s 2021/22 net wheat sales were 293,100 tons, a decrease of 5% from the previous week and a decrease of 32% from the four-week average
.
So far this year, total US wheat export sales have reached 8.
705 million tons, a decrease of 17% over the same period last year
.

 

　　The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report shows that the winter wheat harvest in the United States is nearing completion
.
As of August 8, the winter wheat harvest in the United States was 95% complete, up from 91% last week, and 89% in the same period last year, and the five-year average for the same period was 91%
.
The U.
S.
spring wheat harvest progress is 38%, 17% a week ago, 14% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 21%
.
The excellent and good rate of spring wheat was 11%, 10% last week and 69% in the same period last year
.

 

　　In the Black Sea region, Russian wheat export prices rose last week because of strong demand from importers and domestic buyers, and the outlook for global wheat production deteriorated
.
According to the consulting agency IAKR, as of August 6, the FOB price of 12.
5% ​​protein Russian wheat for August shipping at the Black Sea port was US$267 per ton, an increase of US$13 from a week ago
.
SovEcon, another Moscow-based consulting firm, said that the price of wheat in Russia rose by US$13 to US$268 per ton
.
Although the price of wheat in Russia has soared significantly in recent weeks, given the fierce competition from the EU and Ukraine, the increase in wheat prices may slow down
.
SovEcon said that Russian wheat exports were weak in July due to delays in the harvest, but exports are expected to accelerate in August, reaching 4 to 4.
5 million tons
.