Global wheat market: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, and wheat prices continue to rise

 

On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), May soft red winter wheat futures settled at around $11.
0225 a bushel on Friday, up 38.
5 cents, or 3.
62%, from a week ago
.
May hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) settled at around $11.
1075 a bushel, up 40.
25 cents, or 3.
76%, from a week ago
.
May hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) settled at around $11.
0425 a bushel, up 44 cents, or 4.
15%, from a week ago
.
Euronext's May 2022 milling wheat futures traded at around €381.
25/tonne, up €19.
50 or 5.
4% from a week earlier
.
The spot price of Argentine wheat was $401/ton, unchanged from a week ago
.
On Friday, the ICE U.
S.
Dollar Index closed at 98.
81, up 0.
6% from a week earlier
.

 

　　As the Russian-Ukrainian conflict enters its second month, there is no sign of an agreement between the two sides in peace talks, which not only means continued disruption of grain exports from the Black Sea, but also raises concerns that Ukraine's spring planting area has been significantly reduced, which will lead to next year's global wheat export supply Tensions remain, prompting major importers such as the Middle East and Africa to reluctantly buy high-priced wheat to avoid food riots caused by supply shortages
.

 

　　Consultancy APK-Inform expects Ukraine's 2022 cereal production to fall to 38.
9 million tonnes, down 54.
6 percent from a year earlier, due to lower plantings
.
Ukrainian grain exports in 2022/23 (July-June) are expected to fall to nearly 30 million tonnes, down 32% year-on-year, including 10 million tonnes of wheat and 19 million tonnes of corn
.
The company also lowered Ukrainian grain exports for 2021/22 to 44 million tonnes, down 29 percent from its earlier forecast and 3 percent from 2020/212 exports
.
Ukrainian forces have suspended operations at Black Sea ports since the conflict began
.
Ukraine transports 99% of its total grain exports through ports
.
Currently Ukraine can make some exports by rail along the western border, but the capacity to export by rail is much lower compared to ports
.
In addition, further exports of Ukrainian wheat and barley are also limited by the lack of EU demand
.

 

　　India is actively negotiating with importing countries in an effort to fill the gap in Russian-Ukrainian wheat exports
.
Russia and Ukraine account for 29% of global wheat exports
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture this month expected India and Australia to benefit the most from disruptions to Black Sea wheat exports
.
The USDA raised its 2021/22 forecast for Indian wheat exports to 8.
5 million tonnes from 7 million tonnes
.
It was reported this week that the Indian government is working to create favorable conditions for wheat exports, which could be as high as 10 million tonnes
.
India's wheat production in 2021/22 is likely to rise to a record 111.
3 million tonnes from 109.
6 million the previous year, the Agriculture Ministry said
.

 

　　Egypt, the world's top wheat importer, will not hold its next international wheat tender until mid-May because of the upcoming harvest of domestic wheat, Ali Mosley, the world's top wheat importer, said on Thursday
.
Egypt has cancelled the past two tenders due to the recent sharp rise in international wheat prices and fewer businesses participating in the tender
.
The wheat harvest in Egypt typically starts in April and ends in July or August, with the government planning to buy up to 6 million tonnes of wheat from local farmers
.
The supply minister also said that Egypt had received all the Russian wheat it had previously ordered
.

 

　　The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed net U.
S.
wheat sales for the 2021/22 season of 155,700 tonnes for the week ended March 17, 2022, 7% higher than last week but 51% lower than the four-week average
.
Net sales in 2022/23 were 367,300 tonnes, compared to 325,600 tonnes a week earlier
.
So far in 2021/22, U.
S.
wheat export sales have totaled 18.
89 million tonnes, down 24% from a year earlier
.

 

　　Canada could face another drought this year, clouding the outlook for wheat production
.
Much of the Canadian Prairies remained dry as of February 28, with extreme drought conditions in southern Alberta and central Saskatchewan, according to the Canada Drought Monitor
.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) expert Trevor Hadwin said there is no moisture reserve in the soil that normally occurs after winter, so this year's crops are extremely vulnerable to drought
.

 

　　A March report from the EU's crop monitoring agency MARS showed that soft wheat yields in the EU-27 member countries are forecast at 6.
02 t/ha in 2022, down from 6.
04 t/ha in 2021 but 3.
3% above the five-year average
.
After a largely mild winter, winter crops entered spring in fair to good condition in most parts of Europe, with weather and field conditions favouring a smooth start to field operations, the report said
.
However, persistent drought in southwestern Europe remains a concern for winter crops
.
Dry conditions are also not conducive to planting of summer crops, while low water levels in reservoirs have raised concerns about irrigation water in late spring and summer
.

 

　　U.
S.
Department of Agriculture monitoring data show that dry weather in the main hard winter red wheat producing areas continues to adversely affect the wheat crop
.
As of March 20, Oklahoma's winter wheat was 21 percent good to good, down from 24 percent a week earlier and well below 62 percent a year earlier, and 46 percent poor
.
Texas wheat was 6 percent good to good, unchanged from a week ago and well below the 29 percent a year earlier, and 79 percent poor
.
Meanwhile, Kansas, the top winter wheat producing region, had a 25 percent good-to-good rate, up slightly from 23 percent a week earlier, but well down from 45 percent a year earlier, with a poor-to-poor rate of 36 percent
.
However, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather outlook shows seasonal rains in the U.
S.
plains from March 30 to April 6, which will benefit the growth of the winter wheat crop after it has turned green
.