Global wheat market: wheat in the United States, Canada, and Russia is severely affected, and wheat prices are rising

 

On Friday, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) September soft red winter wheat futures rose approximately 19.
75 cents or 2.
89% from a week ago, to close at 703.
75 cents per cat
.
The September hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) closed at about 673.
25 cents/bus, up 27.
25 cents or 4.
22% from a week ago
.
The September hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) closed at approximately 904.
75 cents per bus, up 21.
25 cents or 2.
38% from a week ago
.
Euronext's December 2021 milling wheat period reported approximately 225.
5 Euros/ton, an increase of 11.
25 Euros or 5.
25% from a week ago
.
The spot price of Argentine wheat was US$277/ton, the same as a week ago, FOB price
.
The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's wheat futures for delivery in September 2021 closed at about 2,772 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan from a week ago
.

 

On Friday, the US dollar index closed at 92.
09 points, down 0.
9% from a week ago
.

 

　　On July 29, the International Grains Council (IGC) lowered its forecast for global wheat production in 2021/22 by 1 million tons, to 788 million tons, due to lower North American production, but still an increase of 15 million tons over the previous year
.
Due to the high temperature and dry weather, the US wheat production was lowered to 47.
5 million tons, lower than the earlier forecast of 51.
1 million tons; the Canadian wheat production was also lowered from last month's forecast of 32.
3 million tons to 28.
5 million tons
.

 

　　The United States Wheat Quality Council (WQC) conducted a three-day annual inspection in North Dakota, the number one spring wheat producing region in the United States, and inspected 257 spring wheat fields and 15 durum fields in three days
.
The investigators found that the wheat yield was much lower than in previous years.
The final assessment of this year's hard red spring wheat yield was 29.
1 bu/acre, slightly higher than the 28 bu/acre estimated by the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture, but much lower than last year’s yield of 49 bu/acre.
It is also the lowest since 1993
.
The average yield from 2015 to 2019 was 43.
6 bu/acre
.
In addition, the durum yield is expected to be 24.
3 bushes/acre, slightly higher than the USDA forecast of 22 bushes/acre, but much lower than last year's 39 bushes/acre
.
North Dakota is the number one spring wheat producing area in the United States
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture has predicted that this year’s U.
S.
spring wheat production will fall to its lowest level in 33 years
.

 

　　The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report shows that the winter wheat harvest has accelerated, which has exceeded the same period last year and is also higher than the historical average
.
As of July 25, the winter wheat harvest in the United States was 84% ​​complete, compared to 80% in the same period last year, and the five-year average for the same period was 81%
.
The condition of the spring wheat crop has deteriorated further this week, with the excellent and good rate dropping to 9%, down from 11% a week ago and 70% in the same period last year
.
The harvest of spring wheat was 3% completed, compared with 1% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 2%
.

 

　　Due to the dry weather, the Canadian Department of Agriculture and Agri-Food expects this year's wheat production in Canada to be 31.
06 million tons, which is far lower than the 35.
19 million tons in the previous year
.
As of July 12, the excellent and good rate of spring wheat in Saskatchewan was 25%, down from 58% two weeks ago
.
The continued high temperature and extremely dry topsoil have caused the wheat crop to be short and thin
.
If there is no heavy rainfall, the yield and quality of many crops in the province will be severely affected
.
As of July 13, the excellent and good rate of spring wheat in Alberta was 38.
8%, down 32% from two weeks ago
.

 

　　Analysis agencies have also lowered their forecasts for wheat production in Russia
.
ProZerno, a consulting agency, lowered the forecast for this year's wheat production in Russia to 77 to 78 million tons, because droughts began in some areas in April, affecting the wheat crop
.
The drought may continue until August
.
SovEcon reduced Russian wheat production by 2.
3 million tons to 82.
3 million tons, and IKAR lowered its output forecast from 83.
5 million tons to 81.
5 million tons
.

 

　　Russian wheat export prices continued to rise last week, because the global market is concerned about severe weather in major exporting countries
.
According to IKAR, as of July 23, the FOB price of 12.
5% ​​of Russian protein content wheat at Black Sea ports was US$248 per ton, up US$7 from a week ago, and delivery in August
.
Another Moscow-based consulting firm SovEcon stated that the price of Russian wheat was US$245 per ton, up US$6 from a week ago
.

 

　　In Ukraine, the price premium for feed wheat relative to the price of milled wheat continues to expand, approaching the highest level in three years because of concerns about the deterioration of the quality of new wheat
.
On July 16, the spot price difference between Ukrainian feed wheat and flour wheat with 11.
5% protein content reached US$14.
50/ton.
By July 20, the price discount expanded to US$13/ton, a record since August 2018.
The highest level
.
In the CPT market, on July 20, the relative discount of feed wheat and milling wheat was US$13.
50/ton, the largest discount since June 2020
.

 

　　In Australia, due to the weakening of the competitiveness of other major wheat-producing countries and the increase in demand in Asia, Australian wheat exports are expected to increase, indicating that Australian wheat prices are likely to continue to rise in the next two to three months
.
Due to the hot and dry weather, wheat production in Russia and the United States may decline
.