Global wheat market: Wheat prices rise on poor crop conditions, Russia and Ukraine concerns

 

On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), July soft red winter wheat futures settled at around $11.
0450 a bushel on Thursday, up 46.
25 cents, or 4.
4%, from a week ago
.
July hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) settled at around $11.
5725 a bushel, up 47.
25 cents, or 4.
3%, from a week ago
.
July hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) settled at around $11.
4675 a bushel, up 21 cents, or 1.
9%, from a week ago
.
Euronext's September 2022 milling wheat futures traded at around €366.
75/tonne, up €16 or 4.
6% from a week earlier
.
Argentine wheat spot prices were quoted at $410/ton, up $14 or 3.
5% from a week ago
.
The ICE U.
S.
Dollar Index closed at 100.
315 on Thursday, up 0.
5% from a week earlier
.

 

　　Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.
S.
weather key to wheat prices

 

　　U.
S.
and European wheat rose this week
.
With no sign of a near-term peaceful resolution to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the task of replacing Black Sea exports in the second half of 2022 falls to EU exporters
.
Meanwhile, U.
S.
wheat has also added a weather risk premium, as U.
S.
winter wheat ratings are at their lowest levels for the period
.
Unless there is regular rain in May, a 10% to 15% loss in U.
S.
hard red winter wheat production is possible
.
The so-called house leaks coincide with continuous rain.
Just as the conflict in the Black Sea has led to a reduction in global wheat export supplies, drought concerns in the U.
S.
wheat growing belt have further highlighted the uncertainty of next year's supply, which means that the future wheat market volatility will continue to be high
.

 

　　Judging from the situation in Russia and Ukraine, after Russia and Ukraine made some progress in the negotiations in Istanbul in March, Russia withdrew its troops from cities such as Kiev, but Ukraine and the Western countries behind it seem to have no intention of responding, and instead increased sanctions against Russia.
Ukrainian troops crossed the border to attack Russian territory and claimed responsibility for the sinking of the flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, the "Moscow"
.
At present, the Russian army has regrouped and focused its offensive on the eastern region.
The possibility of a peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022 is increasingly slim, which means that it is difficult for Black Sea grain exports to return to normal in the foreseeable future
.
Especially when the wheat harvest season in the northern hemisphere arrives, Europe and the United States are likely to include Russian grain exports in the scope of sanctions
.
Meanwhile, wheat production in North African shellfish and the Middle East is expected to decline sharply, further boosting global import demand in 2022/23
.
That means wheat prices could still challenge the 14-year high hit in March
.

 

　　U.
S.
wheat crop conditions improve but remain at worst level on record

 

　　The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report released on Monday showed that this year's U.
S.
winter wheat crop has improved from a week ago, but is still at its worst level on record
.
As of Sunday, April 10, 32 percent of U.
S.
winter wheat was rated excellent, up from 30 percent last week, but well down from 53 percent a year earlier
.
Kansas, the top-producing state, has a 34 percent good-to-good rate of winter wheat, compared with 32 percent last week
.
The national spring wheat planting progress is 6%, 3% last week, 10% last year, and the five-year average is 5%
.
The continued dry weather in the winter wheat producing areas of the Great Plains of the United States continues to threaten the growth of winter wheat after turning green
.

 

　　The U.
S.
Great Plains remained dry for the week ended April 12, according to the U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's Drought Monitor
.
The drought has slowly intensified and expanded in many areas over the past few months, and recent strong winds and low humidity have contributed to increased drying, especially in the southern plains
.

 

　　The forecast issued by the National Weather Service on April 15 showed that the weather in the United States plains will remain cold for the next few days
.
Morning temperatures in the northern U.
S.
Plains will remain below 10 degrees Fahrenheit from the weekend into Monday, with cold weather likely to extend south of the Central Plains and the Ohio Valley
.
Dry weather will also continue for the next five days
.

 

　　U.
S.
wheat exports are uncompetitive

 

　　The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed net U.
S.
wheat sales for 2021/22 were less than 100,000 tonnes in the week ended April 7, 39% lower than last week and 30% lower than the four-week average
.
Net sales in 2022/23 were 230,000 tonnes, unchanged from a week ago
.
Total U.
S.
wheat export sales so far in 2021/22 are 19.
24 million tons, down 23.
4% from a year earlier
.
U.
S.
wheat currently has the highest price among major exporters, continuing to constrain its export sales
.
As of April 13, the export price of hard red winter wheat in the US Gulf was $514 per ton, the price of soft red winter wheat was $453 per ton, the price of first-class milling wheat in the French port of Rouen was $444 per ton, and the price of wheat in the upper river area of ​​Argentina was 413 US dollars per ton.
dollars
.

 

　　Consultant raises forecast for Russian wheat exports, lowers EU export forecast

 

　　French analyst firm Strategic Grains on Thursday lowered its forecast for EU wheat exports in 2021/22 (starting in July) by 1.
1 million tonnes to 31.
4 million tonnes from a forecast of 32.
5 million in March
.
Strategic Grains had previously expected that the disruption of Black Sea grain exports due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict would lead to a shift in wheat demand to the European Union
.
But this month it reported that Russia was exporting large quantities of wheat despite the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine
.
The USDA last week raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports by 1 million tons and lowered its forecast for EU wheat exports by 3.
5 million tons
.

 

　　Ukrainian wheat production is expected to fall by 45 percent this year to 18.
2 million tonnes, the Ukrainian Grains Association (UGA) said
.
Exports in 2022/23 may only be 10 million tonnes
.

 

　　India accelerates wheat exports

 

　　India's Food Minister Sultan Shu Pandeyi said that India's wheat harvest and sufficient stocks will help meet the wheat demand of the world's major importing countries
.
The second production forecast released by India's Agriculture Ministry shows that production in 2021/22 (July-June) is expected to reach a record 111.
32 million tons, up from 109.
59 million tons in the previous year
.
This is the sixth consecutive year that India has experienced a surplus of wheat
.
As of April 1, the Indian government's total wheat stocks stood at 19 million tons, well above the buffer target of 7.
46 million tons
.
India's private meteorological agency, Skymet Meteorological Service, expects normal rainfall for the June-September monsoon
.
If the forecast materializes, it would also be the fifth consecutive year of normal rains in the monsoon, helping to boost agricultural production
.

 

　　Strong demand for wheat in the Middle East

 

　　Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, countries that rely heavily on Ukrainian wheat have had to shop around for wheat
.
The Lebanese government bought 50,000 tons of wheat from India this week, and government officials hope to have more cooperation with India
.
Food prices in Lebanon have risen by 1,000 percent in two years, according to the World Food Programme (WFP), and the fuel crisis has exacerbated this hyperinflation and food shortages
.

 

　　Egypt, the world's top wheat importer, has added India as a new source of wheat imports
.
In previous years, the General Directorate of General Commodities Supply in Egypt usually favored Black Sea wheat, with 80% of imports coming from Russia and Ukraine because of its proximity, good quality and competitive prices, but the disruption of Black Sea wheat exports has prompted Egypt to consider alternative origins
.