GSK will reach the top of vaccine market, Novartis has sent key "assists" (attach top 10 list)

Source: medical economic news 2016-10-20 in the field of vaccines, great changes will take place in a year, especially when it comes to large-scale trading operations GlaxoSmithKline will top the list with more than $8 billion in sales by 2022, up from fourth last year, according to an analysis of vaccine sales released by evaluatepharma Previously, evaluatepharma had predicted that Merck would lead the vaccine industry in 2020, followed by Pfizer, GSK and Sanofi So, how to explain the changes in the forecast? Asset swap helped GSK to the top, Antonio iervolino, head of forecasting at evaluate Pharma, pointed out that the main reason why GSK's position was significantly enhanced was that it completed the asset swap transaction with Novartis last year and obtained the vaccine business of the other party So far, GSK has managed Novartis vaccine portfolio well Evaluatepharma expects GSK's vaccine business to grow by 6% between now and 2022, and finally take the top spot in the field with sales of 8.55 billion US dollars This figure is much higher than the $5.56 billion sales of GSK vaccine products in 2015, and the latter is behind other large vaccine manufacturers A promising vaccine product for GSK is shingrix, which is expected to generate $1 billion in sales by 2022, according to evaluatepharma, thus boosting the company's position in the vaccine sector The shingles vaccine is currently in the process of submitting approval materials to the US FDA, and clinical trials show that it can protect 90% of the elderly aged 70 or above Sanofi is expected to take the second place in the vaccine industry by 2022, surpassing what evaluatepharma predicted last year The company's vaccine business is expected to grow at an annual rate of 5%, with sales reaching $8.29 billion by 2022 This expansion is expected to be driven by Pentacel, Fluzone and its newly developed dengvaxia vaccine For now, however, Sanofi is having trouble promoting dengvaxia, which achieved only 1 million euros in sales in the second quarter of this year Sanofi executives said the vaccine may not reach 200 million euros this year According to the previous forecast of evaluatepharma, MSD and Pfizer will lead the vaccine industry in 2020, with sales ranking first and second respectively But now, alvarino says the two companies will face similar challenges in the next five years: Gardasil and prevnar, vaccines that are already on the market, are expected to slow down, and the new vaccine R & D line does not seem to cheer the investment community In fact, Pfizer's vaccine business has developed a lot, thanks to its super product prevnar 13, which is used for pneumococcus However, this growth rate may be unsustainable Last year, Peier's sales reached $6.3 billion, but evaluatepharma predicts that this number will drop to $6 billion by 2022 Evaluatepharma expects annual sales of the vaccine to decline by 1% per year over the next five years As early as 2014, Pfizer got a huge boost when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) proposed Peier for adults over 65 However, according to data cited by Pfizer in a recent conference call, 30% of adults over the age of 65 in the United States have been immunized According to the second quarter of this year's results report, the decline in PayPal's revenue in the U.S market partially offset the growth of Pfizer's other drugs Due to the high usage rate of Peier in the beginning, Pfizer's future catch-up opportunity is smaller than that of the second quarter of last year However, with the FDA's recent expansion of Peier's approval for adults aged 18-49, the vaccine is likely to have a boost The expanded approval brings Peier's label closer to a recommendation made by the CDC in 2012, when the CDC recommended that adults aged 19 and over with immune deficiencies receive the vaccine Evaluatepharma predicts that from now on to 2022, the sales volume of Pfizer and MSD vaccine products will grow by 2% every year, lower than the average growth rate of 5% in the industry Pfizer's vaccine business is expected to generate $7.4 billion in sales by 2022, compared with $7.2 billion for MSD However, alvarino pointed out that Pfizer has been active in the field of vaccine M & A, so the sales data of Pfizer may be higher, which is not fully reflected in the current long-term forecast Overall, GSK, Sanofi, Pfizer and MSD are expected to account for 80% of the vaccine market by 2022, which also proves that competition in this industry needs to have certain scale strength Some small vaccine manufacturers, including Novartis, CSL, emergent biosolutions, Mitsubishi taganabe, Astaire and Dynavax, are expected to be downstream Evaluatepharma predicts that, by 2022, MSD's HPV vaccine Gardasil will be the second best-selling vaccine product in the world, with sales reaching US $2.47 billion, far behind Peier's primary position Fluzone, Sanofi's influenza vaccine, and Pentacel, which is used for diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, poliomyelitis and Haemophilus influenzae type B (DTaP / Hib / polio), will be ranked third and fourth respectively, while pedirix, GSK's diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, hepatitis B and polio vaccine, is expected to be ranked fifth.