Gu Weijun: the supply side structural reform of medicine needs continuous promotion

On December 28, under the guidance of China Pharmaceutical Materials Association, the "2019 China Pharmaceutical new wisdom forum" jointly sponsored by Sina pharmaceutical and China Pharmaceutical Materials Association think tank for food and drug industry was held in Beijing The theme of this conference is "gather wisdom and generate wisdom in a big wave" Industry experts and enterprise representatives gather to find out the variables and future of China's pharmaceutical industry and talk about the next golden decade of industrial development! At the meeting, Gu Weijun, executive vice president of China Pharmaceutical Equipment Engineering Association, delivered a keynote speech "new wave of technology - thinking about the upgrading of the current pharmaceutical industry" Gu Weijun said: the multiplicity of policies and regulations in 2019 has led to a downturn in the market and a loss of sense of direction for enterprises The new policy promotes the structural reform of the supply side of medicine We still need to improve and improve the five aspects of capacity reduction, inventory reduction, leverage reduction, cost reduction, and weakness correction The following is the actual record of Gu Weijun's speech (partially deleted): Today, I would like to share with you my thoughts on the upgrading of the current pharmaceutical industry Policy and market are very important in the pharmaceutical industry, because the pharmaceutical industry in the world is three intensive: first, policy intensive, and relatively difficult Secondly, it is capital intensive How do investors think of the industry and how to help the industry in the future The next is technology intensive, because the development of the pharmaceutical industry is very fast, whether it is chemical medicine or biological medicine or even the future of traditional Chinese medicine, the continuous progress of technology will promote the rapid development of the industry In China, policies and regulations are the first productivity, and the continuous progress of policies represents the continuous development of the industry If there is no strong regulation, there will be no strong industry I agree with that very much So today, I will continue to review what several leaders and experts have said, especially the current situation of the industry development, what will the future trend of supply side reform in the pharmaceutical industry, relevant practices and suggestions, and my personal thoughts This is the statistics of the first half of this year The growth rate of main business income in 2019 is declining This is the statistical January to May The data of the second half of the year have not been seen But by the end of the third quarter, the GDP growth of the whole country has been around 6%, and I don't think it will exceed 6% in the fourth quarter The decline of the industry growth proves that the economic growth of the pharmaceutical industry and other industries in the country is basically synchronous But because we have solved the problems of the pharmaceutical industry before, and now we have to solve the problems of whether it is good or not, so we should do more supply side reform in the next step From January to may, the growth rate of income declined, but there may be a big decline in the whole year Because there are three days left for the second decade of the 21st century, it can be seen that the price reduction is very obvious, because there are 4 + 7 However, the new growth point is also very prominent The sales of APIs has declined, and the cost control measures have a great impact Although the original sales decline, but the API industry this year also has a few products soared in price, this kind of price increase is also a normal phenomenon In 2019, there are multiple policies and regulations to support the market downturn, and enterprises lost their sense of direction Many leaders and experts talked about the policy this morning, but they didn't talk about the extent of the market downturn, and how entrepreneurs felt that they had lost their direction What should the government do next? Or what should we do in the decade from 2020 to 2030 in the 21st century? Many entrepreneurs have no direction now The intensive adjustment of medical policies has a profound impact on all aspects of the industrial chain In particular, the review and approval policies, clinical application policies and medical insurance policies have affected all aspects of the entire industrial chain, which is where many entrepreneurs feel lost in strategy There are still four major problems affecting the rapid development of the pharmaceutical industry in the next step So far, the problem of how small and slow the enterprises in the industry still hasn't been solved In 2017, there were as many as 7697 pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises, an increase of 240 compared with the previous year, a year-on-year increase of 3.33% Most of them are not only small-scale, poor production conditions, backward technology, outdated equipment, low management level, but also scattered in layout, and their production is far below the level of advanced countries At present, the pharmaceutical circulation system of our industry is still not sound so far, and there are many kinds of small ones, especially in the wholesale and retail industries The varieties of industrial preparations and raw materials do not match A foreign raw material can make more than ten or even dozens of preparations The preparation technology is backward and the product quality is poor Finally, the pattern of how small and slow has not changed much, and the technology innovation system is still not formed In recent three years, many innovative enterprises have been growing, and some enterprises have been listed gradually The way of listing is to raise funds and hope that there will be some development among innovative drugs, but generally speaking, there are still many loopholes in the national technological innovation system Based on the current situation, the pharmaceutical industry should make greater improvement in the future, that is, the supply side reform has greater adjustment We all know that the current national economy is sluggish Is it a U-shaped, V-shaped or L-shaped economy? I quite agree with Professor Xu Xiaonian's point of view that China's economy must be an L-shaped trend for quite a long time Because of the structural adjustment, the economy can't develop continuously The current downturn is not sustainable either It should be said that we need to make sustained efforts in supply side reform What is the background of economic development and the supply side reason of pharmaceutical industry? That is, the high-end and effective supply are insufficient, the price is difficult to reflect the real price, the virtual high and the virtual low coexist, and the marketing is more important than the research and development Yesterday, I saw an article just written by Dr Ding Lei of the state health insurance bureau, which is the policy risk of the supply side reform of the pharmaceutical industry From the perspective of policy, this judgment is still very correct The next step of supply side reform must be to find ways to work on high-end and effective supply The new policy promotes the structural reform of the supply side of medicine, including the elimination of production capacity, inventory, leverage, cost reduction, and weaknesses There are still five very important aspects in the pharmaceutical industry, which need us to improve From 2011 to 2015, the growth rate of global generic drugs was higher than that of global drugs by 4-8%, but the market share of generic drugs exceeded 50% Up to now, 91% or more prescriptions in the U.S market are still generic drugs In fact, the amount of money is only about 20% of the entire U.S drug consumption market, and 80% comes from innovative drugs Since 2015, various new policies in China have also supported the development of generic drugs To make full use of the weakness of generic drugs lies in the support of policies, and the policies of encouraging innovation will further enhance the competitiveness, especially the development strategy of innovation driven, and strengthen the innovation and development center of the industry Thirdly, the smooth linkage with the medical insurance bureau Many enterprises feel the pressure of price reduction and fee control after 4 + 7 volume purchase In fact, this will have an impact on the industry, especially on the market value of listed companies Such strategic purchase is actually a kind of de capacity and de inventory method in a sense In medicine, there are vaccine management law and drug management law The next step is consistency evaluation Various new policies launched by the Medical Association also put great pressure on the industry The world-wide drug use pattern should include innovative drugs, generic drugs, over-the-counter drugs and special drugs, so as to ensure that there are enough varieties of drugs to meet the safety of all countries Because the world is the same as China, which is an elliptical drug structure Because of the drug structure, the drug structure is also in In the future, enterprises should develop innovative drugs, special drugs or more generic drugs and over-the-counter drugs Especially in the current situation of serious overcapacity in China, enterprises should develop more to innovative drugs and special drugs, or vigorously develop generic drugs and over-the-counter drugs based on their previous capabilities, which is the topic left for us You have heard from director Liu that in the next step, China's over-the-counter drugs also need to revise the relevant laws, which will surely be developed towards more internationalization In the future, whether the enterprises will develop in such huge fields as generic drugs and over-the-counter drugs should be a question that we can think deeply about These are my personal thoughts on the next steps and suggestions All comrades will talk about Schumpeter when considering innovation and making management strategies In 1912, Schumpeter talked about five points: innovation is a revolutionary change, innovation means destruction at the same time, innovation can create new values, and innovation is the essence of economic development Everyone is talking about innovation Many people think that innovation is to find new drugs I don't think so, because what is 505b2 now? Some of them are new drugs, some are sub new drugs, some are not new drugs, but they have done it again on the original basis Is it innovation? It should also be an innovation Schumpeter talked about five forms of innovation in his theory of innovation Personally, these five situations are applicable to other industries as well as the pharmaceutical industry Product innovation adopts a new product, or a new feature of the product, for example, the emergence of new indications is also the secondary development and innovation of the product With regard to technological innovation, a new method is adopted, that is, the method that has not passed the appraisal in the relevant manufacturing department This new method can exist in the new way of dealing with products commercially We have opened up a new market, that is, a market that has not been entered before by a manufacturing department of the country concerned, whether or not it has existed before If you think it's not easy to do in China's market, can we consider the markets of developed or underdeveloped countries? Resource allocation innovation is to control the new supply source of raw materials or semi-finished products by plunder or other methods, whether such source has existed or is created for the first time Finally, it is organizational innovation to realize any new industrial organization, such as monopoly As you know, this kind of innovation is not put forward now, but has existed in the age of the Austro Hungarian Empire more than 100 years ago Now, the most talked about three deleveraging, one reduction and one supplement are important contents of supply side structural reform Deleveraging and destocking are needless to say There are various ways of action Now there are hints in supply side reform, such as the relevant policies of the national development and Reform Commission or the relevant policies of the drug administration To eliminate production capacity, make up for shortcomings and reduce costs, my personal opinion is that we must find ways to work hard on quality and lean manufacturing, resolve this kind of inefficient production capacity and low-end production capacity, raise the registration threshold and increase policy support This is the government policy to guide us to eliminate production capacity In other words, policies are guiding us to reduce production capacity Do a good job in lean manufacturing, improve the production system, improve production efficiency,