Hebei corn into the "stagnation" cycle, the market is a stronger anti-rotation energy

mid-to-late June, when the north China wheat harvest summer planting agricultural busy stage, Anhui, Henan, Shandong and southern Hebei wheat harvest work basically ended, the middle of Hebei wheat harvest is in an orderly mannerAt the same time, summer sowing work followed, according to China's corn network in early June on the north of China summer planting survey live, this year in North China corn planting costs steadily increased, mainly to artificial agricultural tools rise, planting area growth is not large, individual plots increase and decrease on the overall impact is limitedFor traders, the purchase and sale of new wheat is becoming increasingly hot, because of last year's high wheat prices, coupled with the existence of the national market policy, traders to sell wheat enthusiasm is higher, so the price of wheat continued to strengthenCorresponding to the new wheat market, corn market is slightly deserted, wheat harvest before North China traders exist wheat harvest before Tengku habits, although corn grain basically exhausted, the recent corn sales gradually light, but this year's Hebei corn market price is still slow to see, in the end is the demand really so weak or Hebei surplus grain continued to exceed demand?bBR
For the corn spot supply and demand fundamentals, Hebei grain source main digestion channels are Shandong deep processing enterprises and feed enterprises in the southern distribution areaFor the 2012/2013 corn market, Hebei grain source of digestion channels are affected to varying degrees, so corn prices have long been caught in a stagflation cyclebBR
First, the Northeast grain quality deviation sales is slow, a large number of grain sources into the market supply to ShandongbBRthis year, Shandong market after the Spring Festival, the continued low prices is the main reason to curb north China grain pricesUnder normal circumstances, into June North China surplus grain consumption, the market price will enter the upward channel, even if the demand of enterprises do not see a significant improvement, but in the last two years the deep processing industry downturn has been in a stable stage, so the decline in surplus grain under the background of the price rise is beyond doubtBut as of June 18, Hebei grain prices still maintain a steady trend of small and medium-sized growth, and the pace of the rise is limitedThe reason is that this year's import volume of grain in the northeast significantly enlarged, since March, Heilongjiang part of high mold corn because of its price advantage began to continue to supply the Shandong market, to May part of Jilin corn also began to enter the customs supply feed enterprises, according to the preliminary statistics of China's corn network, from the initial stage of the new grain market to March in the northeast grain import volume of more than 4 million tonsTherefore, Hebei grain source of Shandong market share of the obvious decline, Hebei traders shiping difficulty to increase the suppression of trial production of the price is difficult to start, so the northeast grain entry is one of the factors to inhibit Hebei corn salesbBR
Second, northwest corn has become the main supply force in the southwest marketing area, the status of the main production area weakened
bBRin addition to The Shandong market consumption, the southern marketing area feed enterprises are also the main consumption of Hebei corn, and this year the market market favor sourcing of high-quality corn in North China is significantly higher than the northeast corn, so before the North China grain can be listed in advance supply and marketing area marketHowever, since April, with the bottom of Henan grain source, Hebei grain only briefly occupied the market after exiting the market mainstream, the reason is that the northwest corn quality and low price to seize the market share of the market, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu grain source than Hebei corn more price advantage, until the current Shanxi corn has become the main force in the supply and marketing area market, so Hebei lost the market advantage in the main market area, after the price is difficult to risebBR
Third, wheat harvest habits to promote the concentrated release of surplus grain, long-term stagflation trade mentality scorchingbBRinto late May in Hebei due to the wheat harvest period approaching, traders year-round Tengku habits to promote wheat harvest before the concentration of the amount, at this time the Increase in the supply of Shandong market again on food prices pressureAt the same time, the long-term downturn in grain prices has led to most traders in Hebei bullish confidence, anxiety appeared to accelerate the sale of surplus grain, as well as the existence of capital return demand, so Hebei grain prices in late May and early June period of weak situation difficult to turn around, and then stagflation has been maintained until the wheat marketbBR
Although Hebei grain prices under the multiple effects of long-term stagflation, but the market is expected to have a strong anti-rotation energyAs of June 18, Shandong market prices show a certain rebound trend, with Hebei before the release of the last wave of grain sources before the wheat harvest, the reduction of enterprise arrival is the main force to promote price increases, and with the main corn production area of the overall surplus grain bottom, Shandong enterprises this price rebound or grain prices as a whole into the upward channel signal In addition, the northeast grain bottom, high-quality corn is more scarce, the northwest grain source in the recent concentrated release of the margin is also very limited, so in the background of the market demand, this part of Hebei corn will become the main force in the supply of Shandong market bBR
bBR finally, with the wheat harvest, the market wheat production reduction is expected or will continue to push up the market wheat prices, this year's large number of wheat replacement situation is difficult to appear, and feed enterprises raw material gap still exists Therefore, it is expected that the corn market in the latter part of Hebei, although grain prices have been slow to stagnate for nearly three months, but there may be strong rebound momentum in the latter market If this week's Shandong enterprise prices can be a favorable support, coupled with Hebei wheat prices have climbed, Hebei corn surplus grain market or become this year's domestic corn market price reversal highlights bBR in mid-to-late June, when the wheat harvest in North China was busy in the summer, Anhui, Henan, Shandong and southern Hebei wheat harvest work basically ended, the middle of Hebei wheat harvest is in an orderly manner At the same time, summer sowing work followed, according to China's corn network in early June on the north of China summer planting survey live, this year in North China corn planting costs steadily increased, mainly to artificial agricultural tools rise, planting area growth is not large, individual plots increase and decrease on the overall impact is limited For traders, the purchase and sale of new wheat is becoming increasingly hot, because of last year's high wheat prices, coupled with the existence of the national market policy, traders to sell wheat enthusiasm is higher, so the price of wheat continued to strengthen Corresponding to the new wheat market, corn market is slightly deserted, wheat harvest before North China traders exist wheat harvest before Tengku habits, although corn grain basically exhausted, the recent corn sales gradually light, but this year's Hebei corn market price is still slow to see, in the end is the demand really so weak or Hebei surplus grain continued to exceed demand? bBR
　　For the corn spot supply and demand fundamentals, Hebei grain source main digestion channels are Shandong deep processing enterprises and feed enterprises in the southern distribution area For the 2012/2013 corn market, Hebei grain source of digestion channels are affected to varying degrees, so corn prices have long been caught in a stagflation cycle bBR
　　First, the Northeast grain quality deviation sales is slow, a large number of grain sources into the market supply to Shandong bBR this year, Shandong market after the Spring Festival, the continued low prices is the main reason to curb north China grain prices Under normal circumstances, into June North China surplus grain consumption, the market price will enter the upward channel, even if the demand of enterprises do not see a significant improvement, but in the last two years the deep processing industry downturn has been in a stable stage, so the decline in surplus grain under the background of the price rise is beyond doubt But as of June 18, Hebei grain prices still maintain a steady trend of small and medium-sized growth, and the pace of the rise is limited The reason is that this year's import volume of grain in the northeast significantly enlarged, since March, Heilongjiang part of high mold corn because of its price advantage began to continue to supply the Shandong market, to May part of Jilin corn also began to enter the customs supply feed enterprises, according to the preliminary statistics of China's corn network, from the initial stage of the new grain market to March in the northeast grain import volume of more than 4 million tons Therefore, Hebei grain source of Shandong market share of the obvious decline, Hebei traders shiping difficulty to increase the suppression of trial production of the price is difficult to start, so the northeast grain entry is one of the factors to inhibit Hebei corn sales bBR
　　Second, northwest corn has become the main supply force in the southwest marketing area, the status of the main production area weakened
bBR in addition to The Shandong market consumption, the southern marketing area feed enterprises are also the main consumption of Hebei corn, and this year the market market favor sourcing of high-quality corn in North China is significantly higher than the northeast corn, so before the North China grain can be listed in advance supply and marketing area market However, since April, with the bottom of Henan grain source, Hebei grain only briefly occupied the market after exiting the market mainstream, the reason is that the northwest corn quality and low price to seize the market share of the market, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu grain source than Hebei corn more price advantage, until the current Shanxi corn has become the main force in the supply and marketing area market, so Hebei lost the market advantage in the main market area, after the price is difficult to rise bBR
　　Third, wheat harvest habits to promote the concentrated release of surplus grain, long-term stagflation trade mentality scorching bBR into late May in Hebei due to the wheat harvest period approaching, traders year-round Tengku habits to promote wheat harvest before the concentration of the amount, at this time the Increase in the supply of Shandong market again on food prices pressure At the same time, the long-term downturn in grain prices has led to most traders in Hebei bullish confidence, anxiety appeared to accelerate the sale of surplus grain, as well as the existence of capital return demand, so Hebei grain prices in late May and early June period of weak situation difficult to turn around, and then stagflation has been maintained until the wheat market bBR
　　Although Hebei grain prices under the multiple effects of long-term stagflation, but the market is expected to have a strong anti-rotation energy As of June 18, Shandong market prices show a certain rebound trend, with Hebei before the release of the last wave of grain sources before the wheat harvest, the reduction of enterprise arrival is the main force to promote price increases, and with the main corn production area of the overall surplus grain bottom, Shandong enterprises this price rebound or grain prices as a whole into the upward channel signal In addition, the northeast grain bottom, high-quality corn is more scarce, the northwest grain source in the recent concentrated release of the margin is also very limited, so in the background of the market demand, this part of Hebei corn will become the main force in the supply of Shandong market bBR
bBR finally, with the wheat harvest, the market wheat production reduction is expected or will continue to push up the market wheat prices, this year's large number of wheat replacement situation is difficult to appear, and feed enterprises raw material gap still exists Therefore, it is expected that the corn market in the latter part of Hebei, although grain prices have been slow to stagnate for nearly three months, but there may be strong rebound momentum in the latter market If this week's Shandong enterprise prices can be a favorable support, coupled with Hebei wheat prices have climbed, Hebei corn surplus grain market or become this year's domestic corn market price reversal highlights bBR