High domestic soybean price is hard to turn around

Introduction: At present, the trend of domestic soybean market is still optimistic, and the market price is running at a high level According to the statistical data of soybean prices in the major grain and oil wholesale markets in China by relevant departments, 2120-2160 yuan / ton above the second-class grain wholesale market of Shenyang Beihang, Liaoning Province, 2280-2320 yuan / ton in the northeast of Beijing Yuquan Road grain and oil wholesale market, 2280-2320 yuan / ton in the northeast, and the third in the northeast of Tianjin and surrounding areas grain wholesale market Such as 2120-2160 yuan / ton; Hebei Yutian Grain Reserve wholesale market oil soybean 2120-2160 yuan / ton; Shanxi Yuncheng wheat wholesale market northeast selection 2280-2300 yuan / ton; Shanxi Yuncheng wheat wholesale market northeast third class 2180-2220 yuan / ton; Shandong Caoxian grain wholesale market northeast selection 2300-2340 yuan / ton; Qingdao Pingdu grain and oil wholesale market 2300-2350 yuan / ton for field northeast selection; 2260-2300 yuan / ton for oil use in Xuzhou National Grain Reserve soybean market; 2300-2360 yuan / ton for oil use in Changzhou Changqing soybean wholesale market, Jiangsu; 2500-2600 yuan / ton for bean curd and soybean produced in Anhui Province, Wuxi grain and oil wholesale market, Jiangsu; 2400-2600 yuan / ton for Northeast selection in Hangzhou grain and oil wholesale market, Zhejiang Province; 16 shops, Shanghai 2400-2440 yuan / ton for Northeast selection of grain and oil food trading market; 480-2520 yuan / ton for Northeast selection of Fujian Fuzhou grain and oil wholesale trading market The market price is flat and slightly higher than the previous period
In June, with the arrival of imported soybeans in succession, there are two different expectations on the price trend of soybeans in the later period in the domestic market One is that the soybean import will gradually recover, the domestic soybean supply-demand relationship will be greatly improved, and the market price will go down; the other is that due to the actual situation, it is difficult to improve the current situation of market supply in the later period in terms of soybean import quantity and arrival time The author believes that the import of soybeans in June will not have a substantial impact on the domestic market With the passage of time, the domestic soybean supply tension may continue to deepen, and the market price will remain high The specific analysis is as follows: the domestic soybean supply tension in June is more obvious Since the implementation of the GM safety management measures, the soybean import cut-off period of nearly three months has come to an end In June, China will gradually resume soybean import It is estimated that 12-13 ships will arrive at the port, with the quantity between 600000-700000 tons This is undoubtedly good news for domestic soybean crushing enterprises After all, most of them are on the verge of shutdown under the condition of insufficient raw materials, and their purchasing psychology is extremely urgent However, from the perspective of soybean import, several aspects indicate that the domestic soybean supply will still be in a tense state in June, and the degree will be deepened First of all, the quantity is insufficient Even though the import quantity of soybeans reaches 700000 tons, there are 150000-250000 tons of original import soybeans in the port, 400000-500000 tons of domestic soybeans in the port, and 500000 tons of other scattered soybeans in the port The total amount is only 1.9 million tons According to the output of 15 million tons in China last year, the import quantity is 13.94 million tons, and the total supply quantity is 28.94 million tons, averaging to about 2.41 million tons per month, and 200000-500000 idle stocks are removed The average consumption of soybeans in China is estimated to be 1.9-2.2 million tons per month Therefore, the supply of soybeans in the domestic market is still tight under the condition of the full influx of imported soybeans in June Secondly, the formalities are complicated According to the relevant provisions of the state on imported soybeans, the imported soybeans must wait for the initial inspection at the anchorage after arriving at the port, and need to be re inspected after being unloaded to the port Only after the inspection results are qualified can they be transported to the oil factory The time for several procedures to come down has passed one week Due to the limitation of the shipping date, inspection time and procedures, it is difficult to complete the expected 600000-700000 tons of imported soybeans According to the estimation of the relevant departments, the imported soybeans in June are difficult to complete The actual consumption is only between 150000 and 250000 tons, so it is difficult to achieve the balance of supply and demand in the soybean market in June Influenced by the above two factors, the situation of imported soybeans in June is still confused, and the possibility of full influx is very small Most domestic crushing enterprises will continue to face the production crisis of exhausted supply The number of enterprises that stop production and half stop production will increase, and the price of soybeans will be high due to insufficient supply, and the possibility of price falling is very small In June, the domestic soybean meal market is still bullish Domestic market: Since China implemented the genetically modified organisms regulations on March 20, imported soybeans have failed to arrive at home The domestic soybean price has been rising for three months, and its by-product soybean meal has also been rising vigorously, which promotes each other China will not allow soybean imports to be unloaded at home until June 1, Reuters reported In the early stage, China and the United States have reached an agreement on the issuance of transitional genetically modified product safety certificate, allowing some foreign companies to provide genetically modified soybean products to enter the Chinese market, but it needs to be passed after June 10 It is said that China's Ministry of agriculture has approved 30 batches of soybeans to enter the domestic market But most of the goods haven't arrived yet, among which there are still some uncertain factors, and there is no agreement on steel import between China and the United States, which is not unworthy of the market's attention to the possibility of the elastic change of soybean import related policies in the later period This will bring a lot of uncertainty to the smooth entry of soybean in the later period, and the degree of uncertainty is also related to the price increase space of soybean and soybean meal International market: according to the relevant information, Argentina is still not out of the economic crisis at present, and the domestic situation is more chaotic, which leads to farmers in South America reluctant to sell Because of the devaluation of the currency, farmers in Argentina and Brazil are not willing to sell agricultural products, in order to hold a hard currency to prevent the devaluation of the currency, and the operability of agricultural exports is not strong This year, both Argentina and Brazil have a good harvest of soybeans, with the highest output USDA's may supply and demand report predicted that Argentina's soybean output in 2001 / 02 would be 29.5 million tons, and Brazil's soybean output in 2001 / 02 would be 43.5 million tons, both higher than that of the previous year But farmers are reluctant to sell soybeans, resulting in higher prices, and Argentina's economic problems, transportation constraints, China's purchase of South American soybeans limited South America has a long transportation cycle, which takes about 40 days to reach China The market changes in Argentina and Brazil are expected to drive the international soybean price higher Considering from both domestic and international aspects, it is expected that the soybean meal price in China will still rise in June, and the reverse result is to drive the soybean price higher again 3fX