China Paint Network
News: Last week in the "A-share policy warm wind" mentioned that "a series of recent signals may be a new phase of policy warm wind, the 2009 stock index highs are ripe to overcome." Sure enough, on March 17th the Shanghai Composite finally broke through at a six-year high of 3,478.
3,478 highs, the index was nearing four times but was back. During the "two sessions" period, the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan and the chairman of the CSRC Xiao Gang related statements, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security brewing pensions into the market, the Ministry of Finance launched a trillion local debt replacement program, for A-shares, happiness seems to come too soon too violent.
the stock market's rise justified as the economy still has no sign of stabilising? A spokesman for the CSRC on March 20 made a summary or even endorsement, "The recent stock market rise is the market's recognition of economic growth 'bottom', financial risk control, but also a comprehensive deepening of reform, abundant market liquidity, capital interest rates down, small and medium-sized listed companies to improve the profitability of a combination of factors, there is its inevitability and rationality." "Why
government stop worrying about the stock market boom hampering the recovery?" More important is this sentence: "The stable and healthy development of the stock market in the future is of great significance to enhance confidence in economic development, expand the scale of direct financing, and accelerate the upgrading of economic restructuring." "
to be more direct, at a time when China's economy needs financial markets to feed back, and financial markets are blood transfusions into the real economy. This set of data shows this in a sense - from the beginning of 2015 to March 19, natural person investors bought 470.1 billion yuan of A-shares, all kinds of professional institutional investors bought 78.2 billion yuan, and general legal entities sold 548.3 billion yuan of A-shares.
While there is no guarantee that hundreds of billions of dollars of industrial capital will flow into the real economy, combined with the government's work report's statement on registration and incentives for innovation and entrepreneurship, the central government is changing its perception of the relationship between the economy and the stock market. In short, the upward policy bottom of the stock market has been further established.
the bull market needs a solid bottom base, generally need to go through the policy bottom, the market bottom, the economic bottom, and the bottom of the profit. The above round of bear cattle into examples, the policy bottom appeared in September 2008, the bottom of the market appeared in November of that year, in the first quarter of 2009 appeared the economic bottom, and finally in June 2009 there was the bottom of the earnings of listed companies.
for now, both the policy and market bottoms have emerged, but from recent economic data, the economic bottoms are far from there. From January to February, for example, the value added of large-scale industries increased by 6.8% YoY, the lowest level since 2009, fixed asset investment increased by 13.9% YoY, the growth rate reached a 13-year low, total social consumption increased by 10.7% YoY, a nine-year low, and real estate development investment increased by 10.4% YoY, the lowest in five and a half years.
Liu Shijin, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said recently that this year and next will be a period when China's economy bottoms out from high-speed growth to medium-to-high-speed growth, and there is also a risk of a rapid decline, so we should be prepared for the winter.
given that the bottom of the economy has yet to be touched, the housing market, once a pillar industry, has struggled to pull it up despite the inevitable recession since 2014.
March 20, Chen Zhenggao, minister of housing and urban-rural construction, stressed that "increasing the amount of provident fund loans" was seen as a signal of the new policy in the property market. On March 21, the Ministry of Housing and Construction held a national teleconsecond, calling on all localities to further strengthen the management of housing provident funds and improve the efficiency of the use of funds.
the Ministry of Housing and Construction is in the process of releasing documents on stabilizing housing consumption, which are now supported by the Ministry of Finance and the central bank. The core of the document contains two points: first, to reduce the down payment ratio for the purchase of a first home using the provident fund to 20%;
real estate market lift the bottom of the economy? The author believes that is not optimistic, The current problem of China's real estate market is still high inventory, demand is overdrafted, the land market is cooling.
From February 70 large and medium-sized urban housing prices data, housing prices have fallen for 10 months in a row; 66 cities month-on-month continued to fall; year-on-year 69 cities fell, the most fell in a year has fallen 11%; the Spring Festival home purchase wave supported some third-tier cities of commercial housing sales, but obviously difficult to sustain.
market is cooling, albeit seasonally. In February, 5,597 land sales were launched nationwide, with supply area down 22% month-on-month, down 40% year-on-year, and 2,573 land transactions in 302 cities nationwide, down 45% month-on-month and 39% year-on-year, respectively, a monthly low in recent years.
house prices and land prices are circularly driven, and once the land market cools, the housing situation in 2015 is worse than in 2014.
The market hailed the launch of the real estate rescue policy, but don't forget that since April 2014, from the local government to the central government, the real estate market rescue has not stopped, from the opening of household registration restrictions to more than 40 cities to lift the restrictions on purchases, to the first home loan new policy and even interest rate cuts, but these have not been effective in preventing the decline in housing prices.
The author in his new book, "The Great Recession of the Housing Market: 33 Years of Housing Market Change", from the perspective of supply and demand, demographic changes, housing price cycle since the 1998 housing reform, etc. , the current recession has neither external major impact, nor severe internal policy suppression, the market itself-led housing price decline will continue until at least 2017 or so.
This round of house price adjustment time has exceeded the first two rounds, last October to December first home loan New Deal and interest rate cut effect to promote the small rebound is only a flash in the pan, the future is a wave in the recession cycle, the so-called trend is not to the will of the people for the transfer.