How can the brand of domestic infant milk powder seek a breakthrough in the counter-trend of danger and machine co-existence?

"This is the best of times, and it's the worst." Two hundred years ago, Dickens, a British writer, used this phrase to describe the eve of the French Revolution; In 2018, several major domestic milk powder brands have handed over bright resultsFlying crane 53 days ahead of the 10 billion sales mark, Aoyou Dairy, Junlebao has also achieved the target of 6 billion, 5 billionStill, the fact that China's infant formula industry as a whole has slowed has remained unchangedin 2018, China added 2 million fewer people than in 2017, with a birth rate of 10.94 percent, the lowest since 1949The impact of the lower birth rate on China's infant formula industry is clear's report shows that the decline in birth rates has led to a five-year low of 568.3 kilotons in China's infant formula sales in 2018This trend is expected to continue for the next five yearsThanks to the excellent performance of the high-end category, total sales of infant formula in China in 2018 were RMB112.2 billion, up 0.5% from a year earlierbased on sales figures for infant formula in the first half of 2019, Chinese dairy analyst Song Liang predicts that sales of infant formula in China will fall 8% in 2019 and sales will fall 11%2019 will be a turning point for China's infant formula industry? In the increasingly fierce market competition, milk powder enterprises how to build a brand moat? As the demographic dividend fades, where is the breakthrough in China's milk powder industry? How to grow in a difficult situation? Challenges and opportunities parallel to the present, domestic milk powder brands can restart the golden age?next, please join us to discuss the current situation of China's infant formula industry, as well as the future growth of domestic milk powder brands opportunities01, counter-trend: challenges and opportunities parallel1, twists and turns upward china's infant formula industryin the 1990s, domestic infant formula entered the market, opened the "barbaric growth" of the golden ageAt the time, of the more than 1,500 dairy companies in China, only 40 were licensed to produce infant formulaThe low market concentration and uneven quality of milk powder are true reflections of this era2008 is the dividing point of the development of domestic milk powder brand melamine incident, domestic milk powder brands have been hit hard, Wyeth, Abbott, Mei Su-Jia and other foreign brands quickly poured into China The lack of consumer trust leads to irrational consumption behavior, infant milk powder prices are rising From 2008 to 2013, China's infant milk powder sales grew at a CAGR of 16% and sales at a CAGR of 6% 2013, the National Development and Reform Commission conducted an anti-monopoly investigation into high-end milk powder, with foreign brands such as Abbott, Mezanson and Wyeth all on the list of antitrust investigations Subsequently, some foreign milk powder announced a price reduction, triggering a series of reactions, foreign milk powder overall terminal price adjustment of about 10% 2016, "the infant formula formula formula registration management measures" promulgated, this is known as "the most stringent in history" of the new policy requirements of milk powder, infant formula formula products should be registered by the State Council Food and Drug Administration, infant formula not registered through the formula will not be able to be produced and sold in the country Each enterprise shall, in principle, not exceed 3 formula series and 9 product formulations the introduction of the new policy not only hit the market infant formula too much, lack of verification phenomenon, but also to a certain extent to improve the entry threshold of the milk powder industry, a large number of small and medium-sized milk powder brands shut out, accelerated the industry reshuffle To date, 174 companies have been registered with the formula 2, who choked the throat of China's infant formula industry development? the decline in the infant population and the state's vigorous implementation of breast milk policy are the main reasons for restricting the current development of China's infant formula industry high house prices, high cost of living, coupled with the popularity of celibacy and Tinkerism, have led many young people to choose late or even not to marry, and the willingness to have children is low in 2015, China fully implemented the two-child policy However, due to the continuous decline of China's young population, increasing educational costs, the sound social old-age security system led to the "child-rearing and anti-aging" concept weakened, multiple reasons mixed, "two-child policy" results are not obvious, can not reverse China's low birth rate in addition, the State has vigorously pursued a breastfeeding policy, which aims to achieve a 50 per cent breastfeeding rate for infants within six months by 2020 China's exclusive breastfeeding rate in 2017 was 29.2 percent, below the world level of 38 percent, but with the introduction of breast milk policy, the breastfeeding rate may gradually increase, the Beijing News reported at the same time, this year issued the "domestic infant formula milk powder promotion action plan" proposed that "no 0-12 months of infant formula dairy products for advertising." "This also limits the development of a segment of the milk powder market to some extent 3, high-end market, cost-effective market coexist, infant formula consumption behavior is polarizing from the price of milk powder, China's average infant formula price is generally higher than in Europe and the United States "melamine" incident, Chinese parents of domestic milk powder brand trust decreased, consumer behavior tends to be irrational, generally willing to buy higher prices of foreign brands, or spend high prices to go to the sea Taobao route to pay for foreign milk powder brands in addition, the high channel plus rate is also an important reason for the generally high priceof infant milk powder industry in China High-end milk powder products channel gross margin, terminal gross margin is almost half of the unit price of the product, ordinary milk powder products channel gross profit, terminal gross margin also in the product unit price of one-third of the wandering low-end milk powder (below 290 yuan/kg) still dominates China's main market, at 47.8% However, the market share of high-end milk powder (290-390 yuan/kg) and ultra-high-end milk powder (above 390 yuan/kg) has been expanding, with the fastest growth rate of ultra-high-end milk powder reaching 57.1% high-end market, cost-effective market at the same time, consumer behavior is polarized, this is the current situation of China's infant milk powder market Dairy expert Song Liang believes that in this environment, the following three trends deserve attention: consumption upgrade to promote the rapid growth of the high-end market, foreign brands for the mainstream after 90 parents become the main consumer of the mother and child market Products that are less price sensitive and pursue higher quality are common features of this group This gives the development of high-end, ultra-high-end milk powder space China Merchants Securities report 2 shows that the high-end, ultra-high-end milk powder market, foreign brands still occupy the mainstream the ultra-high-end milk powder market, on behalf of the brand has Mei Su-Jia, Wyeth Qifu, Abbott, Mei Zanchen Blue, etc , these foreign brands occupy most of the market share With the increase in the domestic market demand for ultra-high-end milk powder, some domestic brands such as Flying Crane Star Flying Sail series, the main sheep milk powder of The Oyou hepnokai, also gradually in this price with force high-end milk powder market is a must-have for domestic and foreign brands, but also the domestic brands are currently the main capture of the price belt Representative domestic brands include Yilikin-crowned treasure series, flying crane super flying sails, Australia's Yujia Beit and so on in the process of high-end sheep milk powder, organic milk powder and special powder development rapidly "melamine" incident for the development of sheep milk powder provides an opportunity In 2008, sheep milk powder as a substitute for traditional milk powder into the consumer's vision goat's milk is thought to have smaller fat balls and is rich in unsaturated fatty acids, making it easier to absorb The whey protein and casein content in goat's milk are also thought to be closer to breast milk Therefore, in recent years, the market size of sheep milk powder is expanding in 2008, China's sheep milk powder market in the 300 million-500 million, in 2018 has reached 6 billion to 7 billion Song Liang predicts that the size of China's sheep milk powder market could reach 10 billion in 2020 , the organic milk powder market is also growing steadily Sales of organic infant formula accounted for only 6.3% of total offline sales in 2018, according to data shared by Zhang Ruiqing, senior director of retail research at Nielsen China, but sales of organic infant formula increased 37.3% year-on-year in March this year Although organic milk powder is just beginning, it can be full of energy Nearly 60 percent of consumers accept organic products that are less than 40 percent more expensive than regular goods, according to Nielsen data, and 25-49-year-olds are more willing to pay than other age groups organic infant formula, considered healthier and safer, has also become the preferred choice for "middle-class new women" with highly educated, high-income and high-level positions Organic infant formula has maintained double-digit growth for two consecutive years, and its share has continued to increase, while the proportion of mother and child channels has been higher, and the growth rate of modern channels has been higher than that of mother and child channels third- and fourth-tier cities have gradually become the main market for milk powder consumption the urbanization level of developed areas has increased, not only increasing the cost of living for urban residents, but also increasing the cost of education for their children, so the birth rate of first- and second-tier cities is generally low in addition, young groups moving from third- to fourth-tier cities to first- and second-tier cities are more likely to place their children in third- and fourth-tier cities These factors have led to the third and fourth-tier cities are gradually becoming the main market for milk powder consumption According to a report released by Ai Media Consulting, Chinese consumers as a whole are more willing to buy imported milk powder However, there are differences between different city levels of consumers, for imported milk powder brand first- and second-tier cities of consumers are more willing to buy For domestic milk powder brands, third- and fourth-tier cities have stronger consumer confidence, and the willingness to buy is significantly higher than that of first- and second-tier cities And low- and middle-income (monthly disposable income of 10,000 yuan and below) consumers have stronger confidence in domestic brands from the growth path of domestic milk powder brand Junlebao can also be seen, cost-effective domestic brands in China's third and fourth-tier cities have a broad growth space in 2014, JunLebao officially entered infant formula, breaking the high price of Chinese milk powder law, the first to set the price of milk powder at about 130 yuan This unusual low price also let Sonlo firmly occupied the price-sensitive three- and four-line market In 2018, Junlebao milk powder sales exceeded 5 billion 4, competition will only become more and more intense China's infant formula market will only become more and more intense competition Even with a lower birth rate, China is still the second-largest country with the highest birthpopulation, with the exception of India In order to "win on the starting line", Chinese parents after the 90's are more willing to spend money on their children, especially when buying milk powder China is still one of the main markets for foreign brands, and with the increase in demand for high-end milk powder, universal brands will become a trend in China second, the existence of the formula registration system has raised the entry threshold for China's infant milk powder market As of February this year, about 1,700 formula products have submitted applications for formula registration, and the State Administration of Market Supervision and Administration has announced 1,195 registered formulas, meaning that more than 500 formulations are under review, according to the 21st Century Economic Report "The formula registration system review covers three aspects: formulation, labeling, and process and equipment production Each link has high requirements for the technical and management level of the enterprise " the existence of the formula registration system compressed the survival space of small and medium-sized brands, but at the same time for the strength of large brands, foreign brands to move out of a certain market space In the future, with the further improvement of the audit standardof of the formula registration system, the concentration of China's infant milk powder market will be higher and higher finally, China's current consumption upgrade brought about by the polarization of consumer behavior will end, in the information gradually symmetrical, logistics system greatly improved, consumers become more rational Chinese parents blindly choose foreign brands, high-priced brands of the era will end, the future of raw materials, formula will become the brand's greatest competitiveness in addition, the milk powder industry category upgrade dividend and policy dividends are coming to an end, will face a major channel upgrade At present, online and offline channels are developing in the direction of integration In this channel transformation, both brands and distributors will face an important transformation Such as.